Why Truck Volumes and Rates Will Improve in 2025, According to Analysts

As the trucking industry closes a challenging 2024, market analysts are forecasting a more optimistic outlook for 2025. Leading firms, including the American Trucking Associations (ATA), ACT Research, FTR Transportation Intelligence, and DAT Freight & Analytics, predict growth in freight volumes and for-hire rates, signaling relief for fleets and carriers.

Jeff Clementz, CEO of DAT Freight & Analytics, summarized the industry’s sentiment, stating, “The coming year promises a dynamic freight environment—one driven by change but full of opportunity.”

Truck Volume Growth Forecasted

ATA’s Freight Transportation Forecast 2024 to 2035, developed with S&P Global Market Intelligence, predicts 1.6% growth in truck volumes for 2025. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello highlighted trucking’s dominance in freight transport, accounting for 72.7% of tonnage and 76.9% of revenue in 2024, and emphasized its continued importance.

Long-term projections from ATA suggest truck volumes will grow from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to nearly 14 billion tons by 2035, with industry revenue climbing from $906 billion to $1.46 trillion during the same period.

Other forecasts align with ATA’s outlook. ACT Research projects a similar 1.8% year-over-year growth in freight demand, while FTR Transportation Intelligence offers a more cautious 1% growth prediction. Despite the conservative estimate, FTR VP of Trucking Avery Vise noted this represents a significant improvement from 2024’s modest 0.2% growth.

Vise also pointed out variations by equipment type, with refrigerated and flatbed loadings expected to grow more significantly than short-haul or heavy-haul loads.

?

For-Hire Rates Expected to Rebound

For-hire trucking rates are projected to rebound as early as Q2 2025, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. The firm’s analysis shows that new contract rates are rising, driven by a steady exit of carriers from the marketplace. This contraction in capacity is expected to shift the market in carriers’ favor, enabling rate increases comparable to pre-pandemic levels.

DAT’s data aligns with ACT Research’s prediction that spot rates will gradually increase over the year. Both firms highlight excess capacity as a lingering concern but expect improving rates to offer relief to carriers by mid-2025.

Economic Drivers of Growth

Analysts expect moderate economic growth to fuel demand for trucking services. The overall U.S. economy is projected to expand by 2.1%, with industrial output growing 0.6% and manufacturing output rising 0.9%. Growth in imports (3.6%) and exports (3.9%) is also anticipated, further bolstering freight demand.

Trucking remains poised to handle the majority of freight movement, benefiting from these macroeconomic trends.

Headwinds and Risks

Despite the optimistic outlook, analysts warn of potential headwinds. Political uncertainty, tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and labor challenges could disrupt market stability. DAT highlighted mass deportation concerns and other labor issues as key risks to watch in 2025.

A Promising Yet Cautious Outlook

While challenges remain, the forecasts for 2025 offer hope for carriers navigating a recovering freight market. With moderate growth in volumes, improving rates, and increasing economic activity, the trucking industry appears positioned for a much-needed rebound. For fleets and carriers, adapting to these trends and preparing for potential risks will be key to capitalizing on the opportunities ahead.

?

Source:

https://www.fleetowner.com/news/article/55261652/truck-volumes-rates-to-improve-in-for-hire-trucking-in-2024