Why the toilet paper craze of 2020?

Why the toilet paper hording craze? It crumbles down to a form of risk mitigation strategy – Avoid and how humans deal with perceived crisis changes which is elaborated within #ACMP tomes - Association of (people) Change Management Professionals.

A predictable framework, a repeating pattern, your habits and behaviors bring you a sense of comfort. Besides eating, what habit is more predictable than going to the bathroom? No matter the nationality or sex, we all go to the bathroom in basically the same manner across the planet. Breaking our most base of habits is simply more than most humans want to experience so we look to what we can control - and that is how much toilet paper we keep near our thrones.

Research on decision-making has documented a “zero risk bias.” People like the idea of eliminating one category of risk entirely, even if it is something as superficial as running out of toilet paper. People can get complete control over that one little thing in their lives. They are then doing something to improve their lot in life. That’s a good thing. 

My experience working with people dealing with changes ranging the traumatic to minor blips has solidified my view that if people can control some of the change, then their concerns, fears and stress greatly reduced over said change.

When one watches the evening news, you get the disconcerting sense that one’s environment is somewhat dangerous and is a threat to you personally now or in the future. The 5 o’clock news would make the sanest of us concerned about one thing or another -- accentuated 10x now with Covid-19 running rampant. I am a big fan of staying updated with facts and truth on regular and trusted communication channels, but I am adamantly against Chaos Merchants who have a vested interest in keeping the populace stirred up and as afraid as possible. Stressed people make poor life decisions.

I have very good news. U.S. imports less than 10% of its toilet paper and we have nearly 150 companies right here that manufacture toilet paper. This product is not something we outsourced - much. We can control the manufacturing and distributing of toilet paper right here in the U.S.A.

On the average, each person in the U.S. uses 100 rolls of toilet paper in a year. That’s one roll every 3.65 days. And there are more than 329 million people in the U.S. today. That adds up to a demand for more than 3 billion rolls of toilet paper a year. 

“There is not some big underground warehouse like in ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark,’ where there is all this toilet paper sitting around in case it is needed,” said Dan Clarahan, president of United Converting, which sells manufacturing equipment to tissue companies. Toilet paper is typically made to order. Because it takes up so much room, storing large quantities is not profitable, so most warehouses have only a few months of inventory on hand.

Thus – the empty shelves may cause the emotional reaction of “must get” or a sense of “left out” panic but have no fear. The shelves will be re-stocked before you run out of the toilet paper that most of us had in our garages before #Covid-19 broke free. Even with a “15-day Shelter in Place” order – that is less than 5 rolls of toilet paper per person.

As Dr. Bella DePaulo, PhD Harvard points out - the messaging we hear around the coronavirus is all about hygiene and cleanliness: wash your hands, don’t touch your face, don’t get too close to other people and their germs. Toilet paper is about hygiene and cleanliness, too, in ways people are a bit more reluctant to discuss. No need to talk about it.

Written by Dana Houston Jackson, Senior Change Management Consultant with 1898 & Co. – the consultancy arm of Burns & McDonnell