Why Time is the most powerful force in Investing ?

Guys, I have been in the crypto space since 2015 and trust me these markets are one of the craziest I have ever seen. But, that said definitely when I go back into history I see these patterns have existed before actually much worst but having that said this Graph rightly justifies that “Big mistakes fade away too easily” hence I thought of drawing some insights and sharing my experience. I am sure lot of you would connect here.

I started my entrepreneur journey quiet young with e-commerce, I used to sell watches and perfumes online ?in 2008 quiet early when e-com wasn’t even trend in India however I started my venture to follow my passion of collecting watches and trust me I picked up some of the coolest gems and today you all can guess everyone’s after it and looking “Collectibles” as an “Investment”. Basic lesson learned market for right products and offerings exists everywhere all you gotta do is just follow the trend and I did exactly the same like all collectors but primarily out of my own passion. I went into retailing knowing it was not my piece of cake as it required to supply goods to retailers/stores at credit and one fine day debtors didn’t pay over and I decided to move on. Biggest lesson learned

“Credit is the biggest risk” Build businesses which are cash and carry.

Then fast forward ?I moved into AI, Blockchain, Automations, Cybersec and Cryptos following my passion for cutting edge technologies I never looked back kept on building despite the noise faced with hustles where investors never full -filled their commitments but moved on because I had a back up plan always, knew building is never gonna be easy lesson learned

“Just keep walking”.

Now it was a time for me ?build wealth but how, I had no idea limited capital and also limited access to opportunities since sad part of our Capitalism world is only Top has access to best and question was how do you get there hence, I decided to deep dive and learn. It all started with crypto in 2015 and it taught me about financial markets. Here’s an interesting thread which I want to share after looking at world history of economy and finance

The Rise and Collapse of Dutch Empire

When shares were first made public in late 1700’s during the time of Dutch revolution they used it to raise capital to keep expanding the empire they needed fleets of navals,armies, factories, etc and they ruled over 80% ?of world before the ?British took over. One fine day the Dutch collapsed because the cost of managing an empire was expensive and government excessively borrowed. Dutch used excessive public borrowing to keep on funding and when they lost control ?it fell apart. People lost trust in world order and Dutch industries then but fast forward this kept happening and we all forgot. However point here is first time in the history of mankind “Shares were structured to raise money” and importantly regulators had no clarity until it all fell apart. The interesting thing with regulators is they evolve after the collapse but we gotta remember people are smart and they would always find loopholes hence regulators should be more active.

The Rise and collapse of British empire

Then, British empire took over focused completely on building and ?did the same until the world war 2 when they finally collapsed. The impact of which is seen today once, the most richest empire and presently they are struggling to keep up even with basic necessities. we may all think wow what a tragedy ! but, it's not it was brought upon them by their own people they just kept spending money on maintaining empires by funding wars with “Divide and rule Strategy”. As they say history repeats itself and they are collapsing.

The rise and collapse of Gold backed money: Born of Fiat money

I observed closely collapse of “Gold backed currencies” and the US ?when America did the same by triggering great depression of the 70’s Nixon had to sign an order and temporarily suspend convertibility of dollar into gold. Everyone thought America is highly liquid enough lets just jump on it and it all collapsed. Then what we all know how it all ended. Everyone forgot as we entered the new technology era with manufacturing , technology and consumer driven economy. You got it right, the US economy went Bankrupt and REKT.

The .COM bubble

Computing, internet/.com era bought back crazy positivity in the markets everyone wanted to invest in .com knowing it was an experiment ?which could change the humanity forever but, how many of them survived? ?The ones who survived made the biggest companies. Over 50% of all listed companies across all exchanges globally are tech companies, period ! off course the internet experiment became bigger than we could ?have ever imagined back then. Lesson learned go with the users, diversify yourself and keep innovating.

The Housing bubble

Markets recovered faster and was trading at new heights in just 5 years from the .com bubble but how? all thanks to fiat money and Central bank monetary policies built on debt. Everyone bought houses by leveraging income because borrowing was cheap, a great house has been American, Indian and every family’s dream around the world and finally it collapsed in 2008 triggering biggest recession ever ( India is in this cycle of Real Estate exactly) China was in it exactly and it collapsed. You, me could always thought of considering Real Estate as the most safe haven. ?lesson learned again ?“ In world of investing nothings 100% risk free” excessive borrowings for mortgage backed securities caused cascade of liquidations. Even, till today its ?difficult to forget. Lesson learned

Never borrow excessively and aggressively, leverage smartly and never to put all eggs in one basket.

PS: I don’t imply that real estate is bad its good provided you know market and have bandwidth to Hodl enough.

?Then, I countered Cryptos

Based on such a solid history of money I came across cryptos which addressed the biggest problem of money with a vision of “Freedom of money” for everyone. It's been a massive network effect like internet. An?Idea which is a revolution now, Perhaps emerged as the biggest invention the mankind has ever seen or will see. Bitcoin became the biggest bank, everything was amazing until ?Mt.Gox hacked everyone lost trust but it solved a problem with a purpose of “ Freedom of money” and entrepreneurs despite hearing several negativity just kept on building. In 2016-2017 was “ The Golden ERA” several companies used cryptos to raise money via ICO’s several bad actors emerged out of greed trying to pretend saints because till then only Crypto Og’s ??was in it with a purpose of “Freedom of money". But as the saying goes “one bad fish spoils the pond” people became greedy, massive liquidity crunch and Bitcoin got rekt by over 85-90% Everyone thought its dead but true ones kept building and emerged new JP morgans' and GoldMans' in 2020 . True ones kept building because the purpose grew bigger “Purpose was not only to solve freedom of money but to solve privacy at the same time delivering awesome user experience” we call it the era of “WEB3 and METAVERSE”. Everyone started to invest markets hit ATH and now here we are feeling rekt again.

Now, let us just look back and connect the dots we see patterns right??There were several frauds in the financial markets and they keep happening people don’t pay attention to noise anymore even till today regulators ?in traditional markets are suffering shocks but, markets matured regulators realised importance of progressive regulations and this is what exactly been missing today. Investors voices wasn’t even heard until the music stops. ?From Mt.gox, ICO bubble - FTX, luna collapse we have indeed had a long tough journey everything evolved even regulators to some extent. As a result of which today we have laws around Custody, trading, etc and US is leading it along with active participation ?globally. The White House also recommend in its latest paper on how “United States can use Crypto to establish digital financial monopoly” and they are heading exactly in the same direction ?But the most ?important point is in every bull market people forget the past, the pie got bigger and bigger amazing enterprises, entrepreneurs emerged but what kept going is “Purpose, Ethics, Principles, Persistence and attitude of never giving up, Just keep building”.

I am sure everyone here invested majorly in the bags of ?alt coins out of greed importantly without understanding the basics thinking ?it’s a casino while some succeeded, some lost everything but, winners will be the one who would learn and diversify. ?Even I invested and lost but, I always hodled majorly the OG’s Bitcoin and Ethereum as my risk diversification strategy There’s a saying in investing world

“A smooth sea never made a skilled sailor” and “Markets is the only way to get wealth back”.

Start investing with true fundamentals ignore the noise entrepreneurs and projects which would survive will go on to create history. Loss is temporary We could be hit by a tragedy again and the cycle will move on. Take the example of pandemic, we all thought everything is screwed and then the power of fiat money took the markets to all time high. Ones, who gave up lost it all. The interesting pattern which I found is the cycle got shorter but magnitude of impact got bigger meaning Bear and Bull markets both had shorter life span. Here’s a quick summary.

1.??Recovery from Dutch collapse -50 years

2.??Recovery from World Wars and collapse of British Empire 20-30 years

3.??Recovery from Great Depression- 15-20 years

4.??Recovery from .DOM bubble 5-7 years

5.??Recovery from 2008 crisis 3-5 years

6.??Recovery from pandemic 1-2 years

Just look at the patterns Cryptos, stocks, commodities everything moving in the similar direction due to aggressive monetary policies, evolving regulatory environment. To conclude,

“ The biggest risk is not to take risk at all”

Just keep building with utmost sincerity, dedication and hard work, worlds not gonna be easy stakeholders and people will always default on promises but have faith, do the right thing.

Keep building, Jai hind.

PS: If you liked it please do share your thoughts in comment.