Why Sweden's NATO Membership is Painful for Both Russia and Turkey

Once Sweden's NATO membership is finalized, the Baltic Sea will transform into a NATO Lake, granting the alliance the power to sever water routes to crucial Russian cities like St. Petersburg and key military and strategic sites in places like Kaliningrad. It is in Kaliningrad, the Russian exclave, where Iskander cruise missiles capable of striking any European capital are stationed, creating a potential spark for nuclear confrontation. Moreover, Sweden's entry into NATO allows the latter to disrupt Russian oil exports, particularly from the port of St. Petersburg, as Sweden, Finland, and Poland would collectively possess the capability to block Russia's trade corridors. Additionally, Sweden's advanced military technology would strengthen NATO's military capabilities upon its accession. For all these reasons, NATO will not entertain the games played by Turkey, the alliance member that has not yet agreed to Sweden's membership. Ankara accuses Stockholm of harboring and supporting Kurdish factions, but Sweden's membership remains non-negotiable, although some deals with Ankara may be possible. However, if President Recep Tayyip Erdogan opts to obstruct Sweden's NATO membership, the United States and European countries possess various means to punish Turkey.?

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The upcoming NATO summit will take place in Vilnius, Lithuania at the beginning of July. This week, the NATO foreign ministers' meeting was held in Oslo, although the Turkish foreign minister opted not to attend. At present, NATO consists of 31 countries, after Finland joined in April 2022. Sweden's membership will be determined during the next summit, but Ukraine's membership will not be officially endorsed next month. Nonetheless, significant security arrangements will be agreed for Ukraine, serving as a stepping stone toward its eventual NATO membership. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is actively applying maximum diplomatic and strategic pressure to secure unequivocal guarantees, both in the present and the future, regarding Ukraine's accession to the North Atlantic Alliance.?

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The resistance against Sweden's membership in NATO is not the only controversy surrounding Turkey’s behavior. While it is important to note that any objection from a member state hampers the process of accepting new members, the larger issue at hand pertains to Turkey's legitimacy and credibility as a member of NATO. This presents a significant challenge for Turkey's relationship with the North Atlantic Alliance and carries potentially far-reaching ramifications.?

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The decision right now is to give Turkey until July to make up its mind, bearing in mind that Sweden has fulfilled its obligations and requirements, rendering it eligible and ready pending Turkish approval. NATO member nations are making every effort to provide President Erdogan with a genuine opportunity in good faith. Nevertheless, if he persists and remains steadfast in his stance, European countries and the US administration are contemplating various punitive measures, which may include: formally closing the door to Turkey's European Union accession, halting the delivery of US F-16 fighter jets to Turkey, especially since Congress opposes the deal, suspending projects for the development of the Turkish army, and creating economic problems in Western relations with Turkey.?

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Despite Erdogan's victory in the presidential elections, he has failed to generate significant economic optimism, amid the ongoing depreciation of the Turkish lira. Instead of provoking a confrontation with the United States and Europe, Erdogan needs to focus on reassuring his people. It is possible that he is concerned about jeopardizing his current rapport and mutual dependency with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Nevertheless, obstructing Sweden's membership carries a high cost for Turkey, considering its implications for European national security. Furthermore, the United States has firmly decided to prevent Turkey from impeding Sweden's entry into the NATO alliance.?

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In other words, should Erdogan choose to challenge Sweden's membership, he would be making a decision to challenge the entirety of the NATO and its members, thus putting himself in direct confrontation with the alliance. However, if he wishes to secure concessions and additional guarantees from both NATO members and Sweden, he will have to promptly approve Sweden's membership during the upcoming summit. Indeed, NATO will not wait, amid the ongoing Ukrainian war, which adds a pressing factor that cannot brook further stalling.?

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Zelensky intends to visit Turkey. Zelensky is important for Erdogan because the Turkish president wants to act as a mediator between Russia and Ukraine. But Zelensky's meeting with Erdogan will also put pressure on the Turkish president. Erdogan may eventually decide that he has no choice but to meet NATO’s demands, while attempting to reassure the Russian president that he remains committed to the bilateral relations extremely important for the Russian economy and for Putin himself, who is in desperate need of Erdogan.?

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Zelensky is positioning himself to secure the maximum possible pledges both prior to and during the NATO summit on July 11. He even hinted at the possibility of boycotting the summit unless Ukraine's membership in the alliance is assured in the future.?Equally significant is Zelensky's vision concerning the assurances that NATO must provide regarding Ukraine's security before and during the summit. These assurances include the continuation of military supplies, training of Ukrainian forces, upgrading the Ukrainian army to the standards of NATO armies, and drafting contingency plans in case Ukraine's membership in the alliance faces any risk.?

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The reports regarding a covert NATO plan for a direct war with Russia should be regarded with utmost seriousness. The Ukrainian president is seeking assurances from the United States, akin to those extended to Israel. These assurances encompass not only unwavering commitment from NATO to Ukraine but also Washington's commitment to establishing special military relations with Ukraine. President Zelensky desires guarantees concerning transitional arrangements until Ukraine's formal accession to NATO. However, Zelensky's requests could pose a significant predicament for Erdogan since agreeing to provide security guarantees to Ukraine would hurt Turkish-Russian relations.?

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The Ukrainian president intends to further provoke the Russian president, particularly in the lead-up to the NATO summit. As a result, it is expected that Ukraine will initiate anticipated offensive operations within the next two weeks. A key component of Zelensky's psychological shock strategy against Putin and the Russians is launching drones targeting Moscow. This action is aimed at delivering a clear message to Putin and the Russian people: war has reached your doorstep. The drones deployed over residential areas housing members of the Russian elite, including Vladimir Putin's residence near Moscow, was aimed at alerting this influential group to the risks at hand and encourage them to exert pressure on Putin. It signals the emergence of a new form of warfare.?

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True, the escalation at hand introduces the possibility of Russian nuclear retaliation. However, Western leaders are betting that Putin will not risk annihilating Russia by resorting to the nuclear option. Their belief is that, since Putin is reckless but not stupid, he would not dare make such a disastrous move.?

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NATO's strategy involves tightening the grip on Vladimir Putin through multiple approaches, including isolating the Russian population by targeting areas that directly impact them, such as implementing measures to block internet access. Approximately 80% of Russia's internet communication flows through the Baltic Sea. With Sweden joining NATO, Russia will find itself more closely encircled within the Baltic Sea.?

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Sweden's accession to NATO alters the military, technological, and psychological balance of power in the region. It is a crucial element in suffocating Russia at sea, while Finland, with its extensive land borders with Russia, becomes the key to exerting pressure on Russia from land.?

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When President Vladimir Putin issued his infamous ultimatum on December 17, 2021, challenging NATO then threatening and launching his invasion of Ukraine, he believed he had the upper hand and could thwart NATO's expansion plans and head off Ukraine's membership. Little did he realize that NATO leaders were likely setting a trap for him, and he unwittingly fell right into it.?

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In light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the membership procedures for Finland and Sweden in NATO were expedited. Both countries possess massive stretches of borders with Russia—one on land and the other at sea. As a result, Putin has inadvertently engineered the circumvention and isolation of Russia, succumbing to a trap of his own making. The upcoming NATO summit will likely be a painful experience for the Russian president, especially if it is accompanied by a project involving qualitative escalation in a war that has now already expanded beyond Ukrainian territory and into Russian soil.