Why Strategy Matters in the Covid-19 Lockdown

Let's take a retrospective look at the broad strategy and lockdown tactic used to minimize Covid-19 related illnesses and deaths. How well did it work?

In the Spring/ Summer of 2020, the lockdown was originally designed to dampen the spread or growth curve of the virus. This rare tactic was implemented to prevent hospitals and medical facilities from being overwhelmed. Additionally, the stay-in-place approach was to buy time for researchers to study the virus in hopes of gaining understanding to develop testing, a vaccine, and perhaps a cure. Third, the added time provided manufacturers time to shift intellectual and hard resources into production to meet the anticipated need for supplies and equipment, such as PPE, no touch temperature readers, and ventilators.

The above March 19, 2021 CDC chart of Covid-19 cases proves the lockdown met the dampening standard and actually slowed cases by June 2020. Across the country, hospitals were stressed but the overwhelming surge happened in a few isolated locations only. Manufacturers shifted to produce PPE, sanitizer stands and hand sanitizer, and more. Researchers developed Covid testing and even rapid testing. Vaccines were developed and approved in record time via the private-public partnerships by the Trump Team and pharmaceutical companies. Ingenuity rewarded by a capitalistic, relatively free market economy was on full display.

Today, the Biden Administration is ramping out the roll-out of vaccines across the USA. My local Publix grocery store has a sign-up stand inside their doors. In late February and late March I received my Pfizer shots.

Segmentation

Segmentation is a well-used strategic marketing approach. While the vaccine grabs the headlines, buying time for medical research also bought lives. Here, segmentation identified more vulnerable populations (seniors and co-morbidity) and allowed for targeted protected processes and procedures. Focusing resources where they are needed most is a common sense strategy, but it relies upon reliable data being interpreted corrected to effect policies and plans.

For example, my 93-year-old mother lives in a Florida retirement community. By early February of 2020 all visitors were screened for admission. Frankly, I scoffed at the severity and inconvenience.

By March 1, only essential personal were permitted into the facility. As soon as Covid-19 testing was available, all residents and staff were tested every ten days. Mom was vaccinated in January and February of 2021.

The awareness, concern, and forethought of the leadership team at my mother's facility gained my respect. I also understand why being an infectious disease strategist isn't my calling! These measures likely avoided my mother's premature death. April 19, we celebrate her 94th birthday.

Strategic Scorecard: Did the Lockdown Work?

In retrospect, the human and economic devastation is incalculable. As Historians reflect on Covid Pandemic there's no doubt this will have been a pivotal time in US and World affairs.

But did the lockdown tactic work?

Yes. The standard of buying preparation time to save lives worked–the lockdown achieved its stated goal. Clearly the inevitable upward trajectory of the bell curve was significantly slowed so preparations were readied.

The Herculean effort and alignment of the national and international community is soundly winning this battle. While the "game" hasn't ended, the peoples of the world have fared well in adverting a far greater cases and deaths.

And no! There's always Monday morning quarterbacking about what could have been done better. Let's not do that. A strategist debriefs and ask follow-up questions like:

• "What could we have done better?
• Was the standard too narrowly defined?
• Were the tactics too severe?
• What can we learn and apply to future pandemics?
• What lessons translate to leading a business through a crisis?
• What there's to learn about leading one's life?

Humility Helps

When dealing with Mother Nature and her occasional surprises, the Covid-19 effort has an exceptional record. Had the curve not been squashed in March to September, it is hard to imagine how rapidly and high the cases would have climbed.

The benchmark was to save lives. Counting the dead is a science of certainty. Deaths prevented, however, is a subjective, statistical art form. In part, because all of us will die and death can't be prevented.

Dampening the curve to buy time is akin to the hurricane warning system. You can't prevent the hurricane from coming but the you can prepare for it to mitigate losses. Viruses, like hurricanes, are out of our control. Humility is knowing oneself relative to God. Such "acts of God," as the insurance companies call them, remind us just how precious and precarious life is.

Learning says to debrief the Covid-19 virus strategy. Leadership says assess the respective judgement of how different leaders read the situation and made decisions. Kindness says to offer grace and forgiveness for mistakes made while giving thanks and praise for wise decisions.

As bad as Covid-19 was and is, we're dodging a disaster of a disease going viral, metaphorically speaking and in reality! The lockdown strategy, while not perfect, worked. Let's give it a B+ grade.