Why Some Innovations Fail While Others Take Over the World
? Ever wondered why some game-changing ideas go viral while others never take off?
Here's The Hard Truth About Innovation Adoption:
Some products spread like wildfire. Others fade into nothing.
The Law of Diffusion of Innovation offers a powerful explanation. Let's jump right in!
Hello ??, I am Mohit G.
Founder, Grow1000x Club , an Exclusive Community for Top 1% of Founders.
I am launching "The Innovation Growth Newsletter" to cover, and uncover, how some innovations catch on and grow while others fail.
I will also share growth frameworks discovered over the last twenty years. Thank you for reading this. It is my endeavour to make it worth your while.
Now, let's go back to the law of diffusion of innovation.
The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
It began in the late 1800s with Gabriel Tarde, who observed that?ideas spread through imitation—"herd behaviour"—and hence,?innovations?and?products.
In the early 1900s, Georg Simmel studied the?influence of social networks. He asked the fundamental question, "?What is society?"
In 1962, Everett Rogers revolutionized the concept of Diffusion of Innovations. He identified five adopter groups:
1?? Innovators (2.5%) – The risk-takers, early experimenters.
2???Early Adopters (13.5%)?– The trendsetters and visionaries.
3?? Early Majority (34%) – The pragmatists who wait for proof.
4?? Late Majority (34%) – The sceptics who need guarantees.
5?? Laggards (16%) – The last ones to adopt, if ever.
He outlined the five stages of adoption:
1. Knowledge: “What is this, and how does it work?” People first hear about your product.
2. Persuasion: “Do I trust this? Will it benefit me?” They form opinions—positive or negative.
3. Decision: “Should I commit to this?” They decide to adopt—or walk away.
4. Implementation: “Is this easy to use? Does it work?” They begin using your idea/product.
5. Confirmation: “Was it worth it? Will I keep using it?” They evaluate their decision.
In 1991, Geoffrey Moore introduced the “chasm” in his book Crossing the Chasm. He highlighted the challenge of moving from early adopters to the mainstream. Moore believes that innovators and early adopters have very different expectations.
The gap between early adopters and the early majority is deadly. Many startups die here.
Early Adopters buy into the vision. They take risks.
But the Early Majority? They need proof. They want safety, reliability, and social validation.
Every breakthrough started with a simple idea. From ancient tools to cutting-edge tech, innovations have transformed humanity.
Let's look at the most important innovations that changed the World. As they got adopted, the usage kept on evolving:
Innovations That Changed the World Forever
? The Wheel (c. 3500 BCE) – Used in carts → Applied in construction and transportation → Essential for modern vehicles.
? Agriculture (Neolithic Revolution) – Initial farming communities → Spread to urban centres → Backbone of modern economies.
? Writing Systems (c. 3100 BCE) – Early use for trade records → Adoption by empires → Foundation of global literacy.
? Irrigation Systems (c. 6000 BCE) – Early farming societies → Expanded to civilisations → Key to modern water management.
? The Compass (c. 200 BCE) – Navigational aid in China → Maritime trade and exploration → Core tool for global navigation.
? Concrete (c. 300 BCE) – Used in Roman infrastructure → Spread through Europe → Essential for modern construction.
? Paper and Printing (c. 100 CE & 1040 CE) – Limited to scholars → Adopted by bureaucracies → Essential for education and communication.
? Gunpowder (c. 9th Century CE) – Military experiments → Use in firearms → Standard for global warfare.
? Mechanical Clock (13th Century CE) – Church and public towers → Applied in navigation → Ubiquitous in everyday life.
? Universities (12th Century CE) – Small academic communities → Centres of scientific advancement → Cornerstone of global education systems.
? The Printing Press (1440) – Initial use for religious texts → Spread to books and newspapers → Revolutionised global knowledge-sharing.
? Scientific Method (16th Century) – Early experimentation → Institutional adoption → Foundation of modern science and research.
? Steam Engine (1760s) – Early mining applications → Adoption in factories and transportation → Powered industrial economies.
? Electricity (19th Century) – Early demonstrations → Industrial use in cities → Powering modern life.
? Vaccination (1796) – Early smallpox prevention → National immunisation programmes → Core to public health.
? The Telegraph and Telephone (19th Century) – Military and business communication → Urban networks → Everyday communication.
? The Automobile (1885) – For wealthy elites → Commercial use → Mass production for everyone (e.g., Ford Model T).
? Airplanes (1903) – Early aviation pioneers → Commercial airlines → Global transportation backbone.
? Internet (1970s-2000s) – Early adoption by researchers → Proof in businesses → Mass adoption.
? Smartphones (2000-2020s) – First for tech lovers → Business use → Everyday essential.
All these innovations had their own diffusion curves, their own trajectory at that moment in time.
First, the innovations penetrated their raw form, and then new use cases emerged, which the population kept adopting.
Let's look at an estimate of the population from 10,000 BC.
Estimated Population From 10,000BC - 2025AD
Now imagine that, across each of those years, an adoption curve would have followed to penetrate the population at that time as innovations would have emerged.
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Then, it would have diffused.
Some innovations would have found new use cases, evolved, and adapted in a different format.
Let's look at the way "Internet" has evolved.
The Internet Evolution
? Internet (1970s-2000s) – Early adoption by researchers → Proof in businesses → Mass adoption.
1. The Birth (1960s-1980s) – Military & Academic Use
2. The Rise of the Web (1990s) – Commercialization Begins
3. The Boom & Bust (2000s) – Expansion & Dot-Com Crash
4. The Mobile & Social Era (2010s) – Internet Everywhere
5. The AI & Web3 Shift (2020s–Present) – The Next Phase
The internet we knew is gone.
Dial-up tones. Slow-loading pages. Static websites. That was the early web. Simple, limited, but full of potential.
Then came the explosion—Google, Facebook, YouTube.
The internet has become social, mobile, and algorithm-driven.
Now, we’re experiencing another shift.
AI is reshaping how we work, Web3 is redefining ownership, and 5G and AR/VR are creating new digital worlds. However, these are all in the early stages!
About 5.5 billion people, or 68% of the population, use the Internet. The adoption curve for the Internet would have followed a similar trend as Fig.1, Diffusion of Innovation Curve.
Now, in a similar manner, if we plot the adoption curves of each of the innovations above with respect to the population at that time, it would look something like the graph below.
Combining the Fig.1 - Innovation Diffusion & Fig.2 - Population above.
Innovation Diffusion Curves across Population for Products
Exactly! Every product follows its own adoption curve.
How Long Did It Take Apps to Reach 100M Users
ChatGPT took 2 months to reach 100M users. Threads took 5 days. YouTube & Facbbook took more than 4 years at that time.
Here's a visual by Visual Capitalist:
It is no wonder that?Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Meta (Facebook)—all of which rely on THE Internet Innovation—are some of the largest companies in the World today.
Individually, they have market caps of more than trillions of dollars. Over?5.5 billion people?have adopted the Internet globally. And these companies have ridden that wave.
It's important to note that?these companies have not reached this level because of the innovators?but because of the?early adopters and early majority, while the late majority & laggards stay sceptical.
Of course, all of these companies have been instrumental in innovating on top of the Internet.
But as you can imagine, once the early majority takes over, launching products becomes easier, faster and cheaper, and the market gets crowded with competitors.
This is happening right now with every new innovation.
So, What Is The Takeaway?
We need to be able to ride the wave in order to build a scalable business. Every innovation builds on the last one, solving new challenges and unlocking potential with new use cases.
IT'S ALL ABOUT TIMING!
Find Early Adopters to Get to Early Majority.
You need to build products that you can sell to?early adopters?to reach the?early majority?when there is less competition, a blue ocean, initially no price war, and higher margins.
What Did You Think About This Insight?
What are your thoughts? Have you ever looked at the Diffusion of Innovation Curve this way before?
I’ve been thinking about this for a while and finally put my thoughts into words. I would love to know if you found this insightful.
Leave a comment—I’d love to hear your take. If you found this useful, share it with others in your network who might find it useful.
For founders, innovators, and product creators—how will you apply this?
Let’s discuss!
Till next time,
Mohit G. , Founder, Grow1000x Club
An Exclusive Club for Top 1% Founders
A little about me: I am an?IIT Delhi?graduate and have spent the last?20 years?working with 21+ startups,?48+ founders, 150+ leaders, and angel invested in some. Now, I am building a community for Founders to help them build scalable and profitable businesses with access to strategy, knowledge and systems. (DM to schedule a 1:1 session)