Why so Doom and Gloom?

I know that it is an old cliché at this point, but doesn’t British politics seem just a bit depressing recently? The new Labour Government has been in power for all of four months, and since then we have seen almost daily stories of ￡22 billion fiscal holes, the cutting of the winter fuel energy payment, and continual speculation on what taxes are going to go up when Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves gives the autumn statement at the end of October.

Have you ever wondered why?

Perhaps I’ve become an old cynic at the ripe age of 26, but many people seem to have forgotten already that the new Government is led by the same people who led it in opposition. The same people who delivered some of the ?strongest message discipline seen in UK politics in decades. As such, it necessarily follows that at least some of this, if not all, has been by design.

In politics, how you message your policies is often as important (if not more important) than what your policies are. How many of us could list exactly how long NHS wait lists are, for example? We only know that they are bad because that is the message we have been given. So with this in mind I wanted to shed some light into the different communication tools that we already see the Government using, and why everything is rather doom and gloom for the autumn statement.

What are the three main messaging approaches?

In simple terms, the main messaging tactics you’ll see from any governing political party can fit into the three categories below:

• The Scratch and Sniff
• The Victory Chorus
• The Funeral March

The Scratch and Sniff

As a full time political hack, this is my favourite messaging campaign to see being used by the Government, and the one that often provokes the most conversation. This tactic centres around ‘leaking’ a Government policy into the media simply to see how the public responds. While governing parties will often poll and focus group everything, for more radical or controversial policies politicians will often soft launch into the public domain simply to see how it lands.

To illustrate this, let’s say that the Minister for Public Management (no such Minister exists) wants to create a policy where every person over the age of 18 has to carry an identity card. A policy that has real potential benefits but also has the potential of being deeply unpopular with the public. Now let’s assume that the Prime Minister is on board with the policy in principle, but wants to best assess to how the public will react should it be implemented. To do this the office of the responsible Minister will ‘leak’ the policy to a mainstream publication saying that this is something that the Government is actively considering. From this leak they will then sit back and watch to see what happens. For example:

• Once it has been published, have any other newspapers or media sources picked up the story?
• How many days does the story run for, and what is the tone of the coverage?
• What has the reaction been on social media? Has it provoked a debate? Are people universally opposed? Or are people calling for it to be implemented immediately?
• Does it get any international recognition or coverage?
• Generally, what do people think about it?

Following this, the Government will find itself in a win-win position. If the public loves the policy they can then implement it and get the boost in public opinion that is sure to follow. More importantly, if the public hates the policy they can write it off as a leak from an ‘early draft’ that was never supposed to be serious and not lose any political capital.

You may now be thinking that I am insane and that this never happens, but a real world example were the recent ‘leaks’ that the Government may ban smoking in beer gardens. This was originally leaked to the Telegraph, a publication which is generally opposed to any Labour Government, and is a policy which we all know the Government likes but was worried may have been a step too far. The reaction to this policy was incredibly mixed with people supporting it and opposing it in equal measure, and it has all been done and moved on out of the media cycle well before the Tobacco and Vapes Bill has been introduced. It also gave the Government clear air to then change their mind on the policy and clarify that this is something that they are unlikely to do, without having to lose any of their political capital. Genius really.

The Victory Chorus

Have you ever noticed that good news is almost never leaked?

In fact the worst thing that can happen to a Government’s messaging is for good news to be leaked in advance of a big announcement. Leaks occur when the Government wants the public to get used something them prior to the politician having to actually stand up and announce it as it results in public opinion usually being quieter and less volatile.

Unlike bad news however which you will usually hear about before the fact, for good news you will certainly hear about it afterwards. For these kinds of campaigns SpAds will usually prepare a long list of social media announcements and talking points to ensure that it is included in the papers for as long as possible. Something best illustrated by Jeremy Hunt’s two cuts in National Insurance before the election.

The only exception to this rule is when something truly dreadful has made its way into the public eye, and the Government leaks some incredibly good news to move the media cycle on quickly.

The Funeral March

So back to why politics seems rather doom and gloom at the moment, and it is because Rachel Reeves is embracing a ‘funeral march’ strategy at the moment. Bad news is inevitable in politics, and the best thing to do in this situation is to convince the public that things are substantially worse than they actually are before revealing the truth. This may sound counterintuitive on the face of it, but when you know you have to make decisions that people are not going to like, the best emotion you can try and create afterwards…

Is relief.

Relief that things aren’t actually as bad as you thought it was going to be. Relief that there is now a plan in place to deal with it. Relief that the dreadful people who put us into this situation are gone and that there are now serious people in charge.

Looking at the messaging of the Labour Government over the last few months this strategy has been at play in full force. The identification of a ￡22bn hole, which is now actually closer to ￡40bn, the continual messaging over how bad the previous Government left the books, and the need to raise taxes to fix the problems that other people created. When you think about it, the general public already knows all of the bad stuff that is going to be released during the autumn statement, we’re used to it and expect it, and there is no outcome where we are going to react with anger, surprise and disappointment. Leaving only muted acceptance of whatever the new reality is, and relief that things weren’t worse.

The wake/party after the funeral

No Government or political party can run with a doom and gloom strategy forever, meaning that as the Government moves towards the Spring Budget and the 2025 Autumn Statement they will need to secure a series of wins or financial rabbits that they can pull out of the Treasury’s hat.

While I am the first to point out that with the next general election not scheduled until 2029, nothing that happens now will matter electorally for Labour, people ultimately vote on whether they feel they’re going to be better off tomorrow than they are today. This means that if Labour does not have good news to share by the end of Q1 2025 – or even by the end of this year – the tide may turn away from them in a far greater way than they originally anticipated.

So what next?

Overall, the ‘doom and gloom’ messaging strategy we’re seeing from the Labour Government is a calculated approach with a long-term payoff in mind. By emphasising the seriousness of current challenges, Labour aims to set public expectations as low as possible, creating a future where even modest successes bring a sense of relief. Whether or not this strategy will work remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: public perception of both Labour and its policies will continue to be carefully shaped through each statement and strategic ‘leak’. As we approach the Spring Budget, however, we’ll need to see a shift towards more positive messaging and tangible progress if Labour wishes to avoid a reputation for delivering only ‘bad news’.

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