Why Smart Decisions Feel Wrong

You’re on a game show.

Three doors stand before you.

Behind one? A brand-new car. Behind the others? Goats.

You choose a door—let’s say No. 1.

The host, Monty Hall, who knows exactly what’s behind each door, opens another—let’s say No. 3. A goat.

Then comes the question:?

"Would you like to switch to Door No. 2?"

This is the Monty Hall Problem.

It is based nominally on the American television game show Let's Make a Deal and named after its original host, Monty Hall.

When asked this question, most people stick with their choice.

Why? Because they think, "I had a 1 in 3 chance before, and I still have a 1 in 3 chance now."

In short, they believe the odds haven’t changed.

They are wrong.

Let’s step back.

Imagine instead of 3 doors, there are 100. You pick one. Odds are, you’re wrong. Monty, knowing what’s behind every door, opens 98 others, all goats. Now, only one door remains besides yours.

Would you switch?

Of course.

The odds that you picked correctly at the start were 1 in 100. That means the last remaining door is almost certainly the winner.

With 3 doors — it’s the same logic — just fewer doors.

Why does switching feel wrong —even when it’s right?

Because we are wired to trust instinct over probabilities.

Our ancestors didn’t need accurate probabilities to survive. They needed to play it safe. Those that did lived to tell the tale. To play it safe, they overvalued the downside probabilities — that’s where fear comes from.

But today the world has changed.

The safe choice isn’t always the right one.

Whether it’s managing money, making big life decisions, or assessing risks, gut feelings can mislead.

Because in a world of complexity, probability usually beats instinct.

So the next time you face a tough choice—one where your gut screams at you—pause.

Think about the probabilities. Then ask yourself:

Is my instinct at odds with the odds?

If you liked this article Subscribe to Wisdom & Prosperity to join a community where we grow together. You will get an article delivered straight to your inbox every week.