Why Self Driving Cars will rule the roads by 2022

The self-driving car is far more imminent than people realize. Think of all the truckers who will be out of a job, if you thought Taxi drivers had it rough. It's also going to change Uber and transportation in general.

That's a lot of work-hours spent in commuting, valuable time which we will be able to be more productive. Can you imagine what driverless cars will do to the automobile insurance agency? The ramifications of driverless, self-driving and autonomous transport is pretty radical. It will also usher in an age of automation, the automation-economy which will be one of the dominant narratives of the 2020s worldwide.  

If you believe this is a distant dream, think again, Uber announced it is testing driverless cars now. Google, Tesla, and Chinese companies are all working on this technology, driving the tech that would enable driverless cars forward faster then ever, since it's going to be huge. 

Fully autonomous vehicles can be used as self-driving taxis. In sufficiently populous areas, fleets of autonomous cars will emerge that provide mobility as a service. These cars can provide mobility at much lower cost...

Autonomous vehicles even in just the past year, have gone from a dream to rumored semi-autonomous reality. I expect functional driverless cars (level 4) will be out by 2020, and mainstream adoption and disruption by 2022, maybe sooner. 

This will contribute to another level of the emergence of the smart city. Self-driving cars will reduce the risks of accidents. If 90% of accidents are caused by (human) driver error, why should not technology come to the rescue? The saving in costs is tremendous. Why in the late 2020s, would I even want to drive my own car? It's kind of barbaric, isn't it. 

Self-driving cars are a critical, enabling technology which will impact almost every sector of industry. New business models become possible; in addition, transportation costs for people and goods will shrink considerably. 

Uber Cars will be Autonomous Soon

Uber joining this race in 2016, is really no surprise. They have a lot to gain, since getting to anyone who needs a ride in under give minutes is part of their value proposition. To believe that self-driving cars won't be the majority of vehicles on the road in the 2020s, is just plain naive. For young people, this means this is just yet another way the world is changing in which they will live smarter.

China Leads Silicon Valley 

China, may actually win this race for self-driving cars. Changan, Geely and even Baidu, are all implicated. Tesla's results have been mixed, but they are clearly among the ground of groundbreaking innovators in the industry. 

The race for driverless cars demonstrates how Chinese partnered innovation is pushing ahead of Silicon Valley

Baidu working with BMW and Geely working with Volvo are such examples. Changan is showing a lot of promise. All in all, the chances of millions of driverless vehicles being on the road by 2022 are all but a certainty, and possibly as soon as 2020. 

Cars help you stay in lane, park themselves or detect when they should brake. As more features are included and with more robust R&D and testing, driverless cars are not only inevitable, they are imminent. How this changes the world, the economy and human systems in relation to technology will be interesting to watch. 

Levels of Vehicle Automation 

Vehicles are scaling and becoming autonomous, with authorities in the US have given a rating system, proposing a classification of levels 0 to 4.

• Level 0: no automation: All the driving and and features are down to you.
• Level 1: function-specific automation: One or more features are automated, such as electronic stability control.
• Level 2: combined function automation: At least two automated features work together, such as adaptive cruise control in combination with lane centering.
• Level 3: limited self-driving: The car does all the driving "under certain traffic conditions", the driver is only needed for "occasional control", which is what the Google car and Chinese projects are aiming for.
• Level 4: full self-driving: The car does all the driving for the entire trip, it doesn't even need a driver to be in the car anymore.

With 2016 half over, level 4 vehicles are likely only 3.5 years away. 5 years away from mainstream adoption (2022). 

The benefits are most obvious in logistics, where the costs for a truck driver represent about a third of the total transport costs

Meanwhile, Uber has joined a coalition with Google, Ford, Volvo and Lyft to lobby lawmakers and regulators to overcome some of the legal barriers that will be changed to make driverless cars a reality. In 2022, I believe it will be a different look to cities with autonomous vehicles as standard. 

What do you think? What company do you believe will make the best self-driving cars and when?