Why Russia’s economy cannot withstand a more intense war

Hello from London,

Here’s what should be a safe prediction about relations between the West and Russia: they won’t be improving any time soon. The war in Ukraine has become one of miserable attrition. Reports of Russian conscripts in Bakhmut sent to be machine-gunned by the Ukrainian forces are horrifying—the sort of killing you’d associate with the first world war in Europe, not this century. Yes, a counter-offensive by Ukraine is coming, but don’t bet on the frontlines shifting dramatically. Meanwhile Vladimir Putin, the one man who could choose to call off his criminal war of aggression, is unmoved and unmoving. He’s presumably set to remain in office for a long time yet.?

Until Mr Putin goes—and possibly beyond—the ties between the West and Russia will only worsen. Russia’s cruel repression of opposition figures, and now its assault on foreign journalists as well as local ones, all bode ill for that country. What leverage does the West have to put pressure on Mr Putin? Beyond supporting Ukraine more robustly, the main option is to tighten and prolong sanctions on Russia, in the hope that a weakened economy will be less able to support its armed forces. We have just published our latest, detailed, assessment of the impact of the sanctions— and the threat to Russia’s ability to fight. No spoilers here, but while sanctions do play a big role, don’t expect short-term change.??

For more on Russia, I urge you to listen to all the episodes (the final one just dropped) of our podcast series, Next Year in Moscow. In it, my colleague Arkady Ostrovsky—our Russia editor—traces the prospects of those who dare to defy Mr Putin. It’s a captivating show.

Some big news stories are not at all surprising. Take Joe Biden officially declaring that he wants a second term as president. He may do so this week. If so, don’t expect anyone to choke on their cornflakes in shock. He’s already, sort of, said he will run. (We’ve previously argued that, despite a successful presidency so far, it would be better if he didn’t.) Now, however, Mr Biden should set out a positive case for his second term. For many voters, it may be enough that he reckons he’s the best candidate to stop a second Donald Trump presidency. But we’d hope for something more inspiring than that.

Another story to etch into the predictable-but-it-matters-category: Israel marks its 75th birthday this week, just as the country is going through a serious political crisis. Have a read of our latest By Invitation, a guest essay by Yair Lapid, the leader of Israel’s opposition party. Later in the week we’ll have plenty of commentary of our own— and our subscribers can join a webinar on Thursday, where my colleagues will discuss what the recent turmoil means for the country’s future. There’s a great deal to celebrate in Israel, not least the strength of its economy (especially in tech) and the fact that it’s a democracy in a region that is short on them. On the other hand, there’s also a great deal to worry about, as populism grows along with threats to democratic institutions, notably the courts. Meanwhile, the ongoing misery of Palestinians in occupied territory is as far from ending as ever.

Let me also flag our new Bartleby column. It’s routinely a great read but the latest one, just published, is especially strong. It considers the lessons from the resignation a few days ago of Britain’s deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, who was accused by many colleagues of being a bully. Bartleby asks what, exactly, is the role of fear in the workplace—and how do you know if you are a bad boss?

Finally, back on the war in Ukraine, we’ve just published a story on the state of Ukraine’s airforce—which could play a big role in the coming counter-offensive. I strongly recommend it, not least for my colleague’s description of taking a spin in a fighter jet over the Baltic Sea. I don’t deny that I’m just a bit envious of that reporting trip.

Thanks for your recent messages. I’ll just highlight one, this week. Mohammed Dori, from Ontario, Canada, calls us needlessly optimistic in hoping that Ukrainian forces will be able to push back Russian ones. He suggests we are wrong to be “rooting” for a Ukrainian victory, as “that prospect is receding”. I respectfully disagree, Mohammed. We don’t believe that pushing back the Russian forces will be straightforward. Indeed a slow, long, war of attrition is, sadly, the likelier outcome. But we’ll continue to root for Ukraine to succeed, and for allies to offer more military and economic support, because that remains the right thing to do.

Please continue to write to us at [email protected] and you’re welcome to follow me on Twitter: @ARobertsjourno

Adam Roberts, Digital editor

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Russia’s economy can withstand a long war, but not a more intense one

A week after Russia invaded Ukraine last year, Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, crowed, “The value of the ruble has plummeted; the Russian stockmarket closed as fear of capital flight rose; interest rates more than doubled; Russia’s credit rating has been cut to junk status.” American authorities clearly hoped that the “massive, unprecedented consequences” they and their allies had imposed on Russia, including “severe and lasting economic costs”, would help impede its war machine. Yet over the following year, despite the repeated tightening of Western sanctions, Russia’s economy recovered its poise. The IMF expects it to grow by 0.7% this year—on a par with France, and even as the British and German economies shrink. The hope that the state of Russia’s economy will provide any sort of constraint on the war has faded.

Why Joe Biden hasn’t announced he is running again—yet

Joe Biden is being coy. On April 10th, at the White House Easter Egg Roll, the president told an interviewer that he planned to host “at least three or four more” of the annual events. Pressed, he said he intended to run for a second term as president. A few days later, fresh from a four-day trip to Ireland, he vowed to formally announce “relatively soon”. Now it seems he could announce this week. Donald Trump declared his candidacy for the Republican nomination in November; several others in his party have followed suit. Why has Mr Biden hesitated to kick start his own campaign?

If enough people think you’re a bad boss, then you are

A fascinating case study on the exercise of power within an organisation has just reached a conclusion in Britain. Dominic Raab resigned as the country’s deputy prime minister and justice secretary on April 21st, after an independent investigation into whether he is a workplace bully found that he had crossed a line. The civil servants who lodged complaints against him will feel justified. His supporters, and the man himself, contend that his departure sets an unhealthily low bar for being found guilty of bullying.

Most read by subscribers this week:

• As Israel turns 75 there is much to celebrate—and worry about—says Yair Lapid
• Arrivals, the final episode of Next Year in Moscow
• Ukraine’s top guns need new jets to win the war
• Joe Biden should not seek re-election
• Israel’s government is still in a bind

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