Why Russia may finally accept Turkey’s plans for Black Sea shipping
Middle East Eye
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By Ragip Soylu - MEE Turkey Bureau Chief
Dear readers,
Officials in Ukraine say that it sank a Russian patrol ship in the Black Sea on Tuesday, after hitting it with naval drones.
Kyiv has now destroyed or damaged 13 Russian naval vessels, including Moskva, the flagship of the Black Sea navy, since the start of the war.
But as Ukraine increases its attacks against Russian warships, there are deepening concerns as to how this will affect civilian vessels, pushing Turkey to look for a solution.
And so last week Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced that Ankara, along with the UN, will work on an initiative to guarantee the freedom and safety of navigation in the Black Sea.
UN proposal for the Black Sea
What Erdogan has suggested is a commitment from both Russia and Ukraine not to target civilian cargo ships in the Black Sea, thereby ensuring safe international waters. It is given that Ukraine will accept. Russia has yet to respond.
Luckily enough, I was at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum last weekend, where veteran Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was in attendance along with his entourage.
I approached Maria Zakharova, the Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, and asked her about the Turkish proposal.
She said that Russia didn’t trust Ukraine to uphold any agreement one bit, and that Moscow has no appetite to sign another deal, such as the Black Sea Grain Initiative, where promises to provide insurance for Russian cargo ships have not been met (Russia suspended the initiative in July).
On the sidelines of the forum, a senior Russian official told me that they would evaluate whatever Turkey suggests but that the chances of a breakthrough were slim.
This was in contrast to two Turkish official sources, who said that Ankara’s proposal had already been submitted to Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin, they said, was expected to make a decision soon.
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But a senior UN official told me that Lavrov and the Russian foreign ministry are not inclined to work with Turkey on any issue.
“In Lavrov’s mind, Russia is the superpower and countries like Turkey aren’t worthy of being part of any deals,” the official said. “That’s why he doesn’t want to work with Ankara.”
Sources back in Ankara have been saying for a while that this is why Turkish officials usually work on these kinds of arrangements with the Russian defence ministry, and Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu, who are more receptive to such proposals.
Turkish officials hopeful that Putin will accept
There is some optimism for Turkey. The UN official said Russia would consider the proposal positively because Ukrainian drones and missiles can now hit Russian civilian ships, just as Moscow has been able to target those from Ukraine since the start of the war.
“Ukrainians largely transport grain out of the Black Sea but the Russians carry a wide variety of goods, including oil,” the official said. “This is why Moscow has a genuine interest in reaching a deal to ensure the freedom of navigation. More or less, they will accept the proposal.” ?
Oleg Ustenko, an economic adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in August 2023 that Kyiv considers everything the Russians are moving back and forth on the Black Sea as “valid military targets.”
Russia makes almost all its grain exports through the Black Sea. It also handles 1% of global oil production through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium on the Black Sea, also shipping oil through the Sheskharis terminal which has an annual capacity of 40m tonnes (800,000 bpd).
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