Why 'risk' is NOT defined as an "effect of uncertainty on objectives", and why it is very 'risky' to pretend/demand it is

Your 'risk' words and language are your windows to the world. That is, they define, inform, guide, obscure, blind and filter your vision in varying ways, at all times, as you navigate the real world.

In other words, risk vocabulary and definitions influence how you view the world as it is, including risk, threats, harms, dangers and hazards.

It is therefore essential we understand our own views and how enabling or restrictive they may be in context to others and the things happening around us.

Risk definitions should be at the top of the list of any risk professional, risk academic and risk scientist. Because it influences how we see 'risk', which alters everything from this point forward

It has been my experience that so few risk practitioners, risk devotees, risk professionals and risk generalists stop to consider or revisit their own assumptions and use of even the most basic of risk building blocks, that is, the definition and context in which 'risk' is used, applied, understood or alters between people, cultures, geography and businesses.

“Your assumptions are your windows on the world. Scrub them off every once in a while, or the light won't come in.”

Isaac Asimov

Let's start with the painful (cognitive dissonance) part first. Where your assumptions, beliefs and ideology are affronted and challenged, which results in emotive, painful and typically negative response(s).

"Etymology: facts of the origin and development of a word,"

As a result, etymology is our logical starting point as we walk through this journey of pain, awareness, acceptance and hopefully, growth.

risk (n.)

1660s,?risque, "hazard, danger, peril, exposure to mischance or harm," from French?risque?(16c.), from Italian?risco, riscio?(modern?rischio), from?riscare?"run into danger," a word of uncertain origin.

The Englished spelling is recorded by 1728. Spanish?riesgo?and German?Risiko?are Italian loan-words. The commercial sense of "hazard of the loss of a ship, goods, or other properties" is by 1719; hence the extension to "chance taken in an economic enterprise."

Paired with?run?(v.) from 1660s.?Risk aversion?is recorded from 1942;?risk factor?from 1906;?risk management?from 1963;?risk-taker?from 1892.

risk (v.)

1680s, "expose to chance of injury or loss," from?risk?(n.), or from French?risquer, from Italian?riscare,?rischaire, from the noun. By 1705 as "venture upon, take the chances of." Related:?Risked;?risks;?risking.

risky?(adj.)

"attended with risk, dangerous," 1825, from?risk?(n.) +?-y?(2).?Riskful?in same sense is from 1793. Related:?Riskiness.?Riskless?is attested by 1818.

Source: Online Etymology Dictionary

Science, academics and researchers have found yet another suite of definitions, interpretations and concepts within existing literature.

Posing the practical question, 'are we all speaking the same language' when it comes to risk? "

As visualised below with extended and related searches online for 'risk', 'hazard' and 'threat'

“We seldom realize, for example that our most private thoughts and emotions are not actually our own. For we think in terms of languages and images which we did not invent, but which were given to us by our society.”

Alan Watts

And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Many and varied definitions of risk can be found in printed and online dictionaries.

The unknown, collective authors of Wikipedia sum it pretty well:

"The understanding of risk, the methods of assessment and management, the descriptions of risk and even the definitions of risk differ in different practice areas (business,?economics,?environment,?finance,?information technology,?health,?insurance,?safety,?security?etc)."

Source: Wikipedia - Risk

In sum, there are seemingly countless factual and scientific definitions for risk. Which poses. the question, which risk definition are you using and why?

"risk is the probability that a particular adverse event occurs during a stated period of time, or results from a particular challenge. Explicitly or implicitly, it must always relate to the 'risk of (a specific event or set of events)' and where appropriate must refer to an exposure to hazard specified in terms of its amount or intensity, time of starting or duration"

The Royal Society, 1992:3

Now let's unpack what now presents as an artificial, made-up, convenient consensus for defining 'risk', increasingly common in daily 'risk' conversations, policy and procedures.

"Risk: effect of uncertainty on objectives"

ISO 31000:2018:1

"?It is possible to interpret this definition in different ways"

(Society for Risk Analysis, 2018:4)

"Risk includes the effects of any of the forms of uncertainty on objectives. The uncertainty may lead to positive or negative consequences or both."

IEC/ISO 31010:19:11

Very quickly, what offers simplicity unravels and reveals complexity, contradiction and variance. Often poorly understood or accepted by individual and organisations. Some of which I address in a recent, related article:

Risk Management: Failures, Omissions, Fallacies & Deficiencies in Many "Standards-Based" Practices, Undermining "Risk-Based" Efficacy

In sum, risk management standardisation promises a world of universal protection and resilience to risk by prescribing common preparation, management and protection from harm, disruption, loss or delay.

Routine declaration of compliance, adherence or devotion to any risk management standard aims to allay concerns, fears or enquiry as to how 'risk' is actually considered, measured and responded to.

Read more...

"Uncertainty is a term which embraces many underlying concepts."

IEC/ISO 31010:19:10

Other commonly recognized forms of uncertainty include:

• linguistic uncertainty, which recognizes the vagueness and ambiguity inherent in spoken languages;
• decision uncertainty, which has particular relevance to risk management strategies, and which identifies uncertainty associated with value systems, professional judgement, company values and societal norms.

IEC/ISO 31010:19:11

Which in practice, means that uncertainty breaks the conversation of risk into even more pieces.

Which is evident in English. Further distorted, modified and confused when translated or localised in other languages.

Notwithstanding, individual orientation, bias and power, further attenuate 'risk' across personal and organisational boundaries.

Which are further modified, altered and cannibalised within the context of organisational decision making

Which is observable in the collective search history and ongoing search questions posed to Google and other search engines, shown below

Overall qualitative (risk) definitions:

1. Risk is the possibility of an unfortunate occurrence
2. Risk is the potential for realization of unwanted, negative consequences of an event
3. Risk is exposure to a proposition (e.g., the occurrence of a loss) of which one is uncertain
4. Risk is the consequences of the activity and associated uncertainties
5. Risk is uncertainty about and severity of the consequences of an activity with respect to something that humans value
6. Risk is the occurrences of some specified consequences of the activity and associated uncertainties
7. Risk is the deviation from a reference value and associated uncertainties?

(Society for Risk Analysis, 2018:4)

In sum, 'risk' has a number of factual, scientific and academic definitions, derived from historical references, empirical research and cultural analysis. None of which assert that risk is an effect of uncertainty on objectives.

It is therefore hazardous and risky to adopt such a constrained, recently manufactured definition because it artificially taints one's view of the worlds actual threats, harms, hazards and perils due to prioritising the concept through highly subjective and transient human desires such as 'objectives'.

That is, a wild carnivorous beast is neither aware nor considerate of your made-up objectives and will eat you long before you achieve your objective of building a bridge, picking flowers or other unnatural acts within their territory.

In other words, if you only think of risk as a secondary concern to your objectives that routinely change or are determined by 'others', you are likely to miss or inadequately consider real-world issues.

Especially those that are complex, systemic, networked, slow moving or invisible. Hence, the most at-risk community are those that likely continue to use, argue or assert 'risk' is any other definition than that used by professionals, experts, scientists, academics, dictionaries or other suitably qualified specialist.

Tony Ridley, MSc CSyP MSyI M.ISRM

Security, Risk, Safety, Resilience & Management Sciences

References:

Harper, D. (n.d.). Etymology of risk. Online Etymology Dictionary. Retrieved May 28, 2022, from https://www.etymonline.com/word/risk

International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and the International Organisation for Standards (ISO) 31010:2019 (2019) Risk Management - Risk Assessment Techniques, International Standard, 2nd ed . p.10-11

International Organisation for Standards (ISO) 31000:2018(E) (2018) Risk Management - Guidelines, International Standard. p.1

Society for Risk Analysis (2018) Glossary. p.4

The Royal Society (1992) Risk: Analysis, Perception, Management. Report of a Royal Society Study Group, p.3