Why recent Chinese encryption research isn’t a threat—yet

Author: Avesta Hojjati, Ph.D.

In May 2024, four Shanghai University researchers published a paper in the Chinese Journal of Computers. The study revolved around the researchers’ successful use of a D-Wave quantum annealing machine to develop an attack on classical encryption systems .

By October, the Chinese research had started a media frenzy, with many news outlets declaring that the study meant the world had entered a “crypto apocalypse.” If you believe the hype, you might think our classical encryption methods are under immediate threat.?

But the panic is premature. While quantum computing does hold the potential to eventually challenge encryption standards, the technology isn’t there yet—a fact highlighted within the study itself.

Let’s take a look at some of the important context much of the reporting is missing to better understand what this research really means.?

What is quantum annealing?

While the term “quantum computing” has been on many people’s radars for a while, there are different types of quantum machines. Quantum annealing is a method that solves optimization problems, like looking at many possible solutions and choosing the best. What quantum annealing does not do is perform the kind of universal quantum computations that would be required to break modern encryption .

The D-Wave quantum annealer used in the Shanghai University study operates with fewer qubits than a more powerful cryptographically relevant quantum computer (CRQC) . The integer it factored was only 50 bits, much smaller than the 2048-bit keys seen in military-grade encryption.

In other words, the annealer isn’t the type of quantum machine that could crack encryption algorithms like RSA-2048 . Instead of actually cracking the algorithm, the researchers used quantum annealing to reframe RSA’s well-known integer factorization problem (the math behind RSA encryption ) as an optimization problem.

That doesn’t mean the study is meaningless—it does show progress. But the D-Wave machine is still a long way from threatening modern encryption.?

How worried should we be?

Here’s the key point: The Shanghai University study doesn’t prove that RSA-2048 (one of today’s go-to encryption methods) or AES-256 (another widely used standard) are at risk right now. While the researchers did make progress in using a hybrid quantum-classical algorithm to optimize certain problem-solving tasks, the real-world implications are still limited.

Yes, quantum computing is something organizations should already be preparing for. But breaking encryption protocols like RSA would require quantum machines with far more power than what’s currently available. We’re not at the point where quantum computers can actually “break” encryption—not yet.

But that doesn’t mean you should ignore quantum computing altogether. This study is a useful reminder that the quantum future will come—it's just a question of when.

How to prepare for the real crypto apocalypse

At the moment, the quantum threat is more theoretical than practical. But the study does serve as a cautionary tale. Whether you call it a crypto apocalypse or Q-Day , quantum is coming—and the time to prepare is now.

Experts in post-quantum cryptography (PQC) are already developing encryption techniques that can resist quantum attacks, and many organizations are investing in solutions like DigiCert Trust Lifecycle Manager to achieve the crypto-agility they need to be ready for the arrival of quantum computing.?

So if you’ve seen the hype about the crypto apocalypse, don’t panic. But take it as a sign that it’s time to prepare.

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