Why Predictable Falls Short: Embracing Anti-Fragility in Project Planning

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The Challenge

Every construction project starts with a plan. A predictable schedule, built with buffers and risk assessments, promises certainty. But reality doesn't cooperate. Permits delay, productivity shifts, materials arrive late. Traditional planning treats these as deviations. But what if unpredictability wasn’t a threat? What if projects could get stronger through change instead of breaking under it?

In this episode, we were joined by Georgia Stillwell well, Director of Client Solutions at ALICE Technologies .

Key Takeaways

1. Predictability is a Myth – No matter how well you plan, real-world events will force changes. Rigid schedules fail when they can't adapt to shifting conditions.
2. Anti-Fragility Beats Agility – Agility responds to change, but anti-fragility thrives on it. Instead of resisting disruptions, anti-fragile planning turns them into advantages.
3. Google Maps, Not Paper Maps – Traditional schedules are like paper maps: they show a single route. Anti-fragile schedules function like Google Maps, recalibrating in real time to find the best way forward.
4. Constraints Are Fixed, but Variables Are Flexible – The end date might be non-negotiable, but how you get there isn’t. Adjusting labor, sequences, and resources keeps you on track.
5. Risk Registers Are Dead – Static risk lists don’t prepare teams for actual responses. Instead of logging risks, teams should scenario-plan responses and define execution triggers.
6. Pre-Mortems Build Preparedness – Instead of waiting for problems to emerge, project teams should conduct pre-mortems. What could go wrong? What’s the response plan? Who approves changes? This eliminates last-minute chaos.

Tactical Takeaway

Instead of rigid scheduling, implement decision thresholds. Establish clear triggers for schedule adjustments, such as:

• If a key milestone slips by more than X days, reassess sequencing.
• If crew productivity falls below Y%, shift resources.
• If procurement delays exceed Z days, reallocate tasks.

These predefined responses eliminate delays caused by waiting for approvals and risk analysis paralysis. The best planners aren’t the ones who predict the future perfectly. They’re the ones who build schedules that adapt, recover, and improve when reality hits.

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Critical Path Career

Impactful Strategies for Advancing Your Construction Career

Available on Amazon.

Are you ready to transform your career in construction planning and scheduling? Whether you’re starting out or are an experienced professional, "The Critical Path Career: How to Advance in Construction Planning and Scheduling" is your essential guide to achieving success and earning more in your field.

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Why This Book?

Unlike other guides, "The Critical Path Career" is tailored specifically for the construction planning and scheduling community. This book provides the tools and knowledge you need to increase your salary, advance your position, or simply become more effective in your current role.

Available on Amazon.