Why Pokemon Go peaking is great for the game

After becoming the most downloaded app in its first week, the critics and number crunchers have spoken and according to them, Pokemon Go has peaked. Exact numbers are usually best known by the company, but even though total downloads are massive, it becomes sport to call the top of the craze.

Yet I would argue, counter intuitively, that if Pokemon Go has peaked, then that is actually great for the game and great for Niantic. Here's why.

First, let's delineate four types of players, from most valuable to least valuable.

1) Early adopters. These players are probably above level 20 by now and are most likely very high retention players. They downloaded in the first week and are pre-disposed to be fans. They are unlikely to pay but they drive the next two level of players.

2) Hard core players. It does not matter when they downloaded or if they were pre-disposed to Pokemon. They are hooked. And they are also probably above level 20 and thus have a huge investment in the game. While they may not pay, this is where the whales are, the small 1% of 1% of players who spend outrageous amounts of money.

3) Casual players. These players are probably between level 5 and level 20. Their investment is still enough that they play several times a week and are likely to retain for more than 30 days. This is where those who pay but are not whales, are found.

4) Hype players. These players are the worst. They most likely are driving the newest round of huge download numbers. They aren't pre-disposed to the game, but they are on the hype train. They are the same folks who talk about Game of Thrones at work but only read about the Red Wedding on the Internet. They talk about Hamilton but haven't seen it, or reference Ta-Nehisi Coates but only read the blurb on the back of the book.

What's wrong with hype players? They don't monetize. They add server load. They add bad word of mouth, saying "Oh yeah I tried Pokemon Go, it's not that great." And they provide the downward trend numbers that in turn cause the press to say the game has peaked and make the casual players feel like maybe they should move on. So hype players are damaging in a number of ways.

Pokemon Go is a business. And Pokemon Go makes money when players pay. Not only do hype players cost money and generate no revenues, their presence and press echo cause the casual players, who usually monetize at around 2% of total players, to also stop playing and paying. No one wants to feel bad about the game they play.

In a networked based game, like Quiz Up, Words with Friends or Draw Something, hype players are even worse. They are the players who start games with you and never finish. They are the players who frustrate the casual and hardcore players and make the game look abandoned.

The secret of games that monetize via IAP (in-app purchases) is that game design improvements and updates are often built around the players who pay. They are the real customers. So eliminating the hype players eliminates excess noise and allows developers to focus on the true players, the ones whose payments drive the developer's business.

I can not predict whether Pokemon Go has hit its peak. But what I can say is that when it does, that's great. Peaking means shedding hype players. And good riddance to them. Not only are they low value but they degrade everyone's experience of the game. The shedding of hype players additionally affords Niantic the opportunity to truly support the real customers of the game (yes I paid when I ran out of pokeballs and there was a drowzee I really wanted). Peak Pokemon? That's great. When you hear that the game has peaked, ignore the news, and ignore the hype players. They've moved on to the next big thing. Time to play and enjoy.