Why people of the world suddenly went triballistic?

A lot had been already said on political events of 2016-2017 in EU and US, and way more is still going to be. But the core reason of all those things happening seems to evade majority of pundits, experts and commentators. And this is the same centuries-old conflict between villagers and citizens sparked to life once again.

The battle lines are drawn this time within two principal domains – jobs, or rather means to sustain underprivileged, and immigration to the “first world” countries from the “third world” ones. It goes without saying that those domains are intertwined in quite a complex way.

As is the rule, villagers always tend to stand their ground. They are normally afraid (or suspicious) of any major change in their lifestyle, so they want both jobs and neighbors to indefinitely stay the same. Citizens, on the other hand, deep in their DNA are just the villagers who broke with tradition once upon a time and made the move. That said, they instinctively know that the world is perpetually changing and any attempt to freeze it in its tracks is doomed to fail. And they see in the immigrants the same villagers making the move themselves or their ancestors once did. Consequently, they see immigrants not as “expense” society has to make, but as an “investment” into getting new productive society members upon successful adaptation. So they are ready to pay the inevitable toll in the form of crime following the wave of immigration – the receiving society just need “to separate the wheat from the chaff” in Biblical terms. Anyway, the ROI in regard to immigration is normally quite attractive, ask United States about that.

Looking through these lenses at recent political developments, one sees a picture (or rather a movie) of villagers venting their frustration and fighting for status quo and citizens continuing to work and adapting to the changing environment.

Brexit

Let’s recall key messages of Brexiters to their electoral base. Control of immigration, which they claim to be impossible because of EU policies and wrestling off those good old jobs from the famous polish plumber for the sake of giving it back to UK citizens. And of course, massive savings on contribution to EU budget. Three fat massive lies.

·      Immigration. The bulk of “unwanted” immigrants is coming to UK not from EU, but from Commonwealth member countries. It’s good to remember that UK is not a party to Schengen agreement so only citizens of EU member countries could travel and work free in UK. No third country citizens were allowed in without visas and proper border control, and if you doubt it, ask residents of Calais where they had for years huge illegal camp of immigrants aiming to get to UK and not succeeding in doing so.

·      Jobs. So, people from EU member countries, mostly from Eastern Europe, took bulk of jobs no UK citizen wanted. So, what’s the big deal? No big deal for a citizen, but a huge problem for a villager, who is simply uncomfortable seeing unfamiliar faces speaking foreign language. In his world this is a great inconvenience and he wants to see English folks doing plumbing and waste collection. Problem is he wants another English folk to do it, not himself.

·      Savings. The clearest and funniest thing of all. Savings begin with contribution of something between 40bn to 60bn euros into EU budget, and then UK will need to address a ton of thing on its own. It’s also still unclear how much money they will lose in tax after bulk of financial sector moves to the continent and sustain other collateral damage.

Trump

Current President of the United States of America is a symbol of what’s wrong with modern democracy when people cannot easily distinguish truths from lies, but still eligible to vote and effectively take decision on how the country is run during next political cycle. None of his major promises except tax reform (which is long overdue) are feasible, but villagers still wanted to give it a try. And here we come to another problem, which is asymmetry between potential gains and losses for underprivileged. Those guys in Rusty Belt states could lose almost nothing because of voting for Trump as they effectively have little to lose. But if he miraculously deliver at least a part of his promises, specifically new employment opportunities within the old industries like coal mining, they would benefit a lot. This is what I call casino-type voting – chances are low, but payout is nice if you got it right. That said, Trump is rather a legitimate child of opportunistic thinking and decision-taking by villagers, not an illegitimate one of Russian meddling in the elections. You can meddle whatever you want and even tip the scales if lucky, but underlying conditions have to be there first and foremost. Looks like eight years of Obama were just too fast and too much for that conservative part of society who decided to take a break from rapid modernization.

Anyway, watching with great interest the wall being built at expense of Mexico ??

Germany

Somehow, 70 years after Nazi rule is over Germany became an embodiment of how modern country should be run. But it has its shortcomings which villagers try to capitalize on.

Angela Merkel today is the best statesman by far the “First World” has. She is by no means irreplaceable, but she is very good. But the challenges she faced during the refugee crisis were immense, and they took its toll during the latest elections.

But what was really interesting, is a crystal-clear divide between villagers and citizens on her decision to accept a million of refugees in Germany. Citizens accepted it on a spot, villagers massively supported then-obscure Alternative for Germany (AfD) political party, which claimed significant gains and has now substantial representation in Bundestag. But what was the actual choice there? Could that human wave been stopped and, if yes, then how?

There were just two solutions. First was the one taken – hammer out political compromise between 28 EU member countries, stem the wave by negotiating agreement with Turkey, and accept all those who came, process them, select refugees from economic migrants, settle the first ones, deport the second. It took time, resources and commitment. And it was citizens’ way of doing things.

Second solution was ugly – deploy navy into the sea and stop them at the border, not allowing anyone in whatever happens, be it a sinking boat or people overboard. As an extreme, the boats could be sunk right there for violating the border and not responding to rightful orders of border control. And that was they way it was done since forever until very recently – ask Jews trying to flee from the same Germany 80+ years ago. Villagers’ way.

Catalonia

Probably the most interesting example of such clash of interests and values so far. The villagers who are pro-independent, try to incapsulate themselves within the borders of Catalonia, isolating from Spain. At the same time, they pay lip service to European cause, saying that they want to remain in EU as independent country. This is a kind of twisted logic which is combined out of aspirations and actions of 4 core groups involved in the process.

·      Elderly population which still blames Spain for Franco-era “crimes and atrocities”, cannot come up to terms with the past and sincerely believe contrary to any hard evidence that Spain is just a source of everything bad happening in Catalonia today. Not to be ever won over by unity cause.

·      30-ish unemployed and immobile, who do not see a lot of perspectives ahead and venting their frustration within the boundaries of separatist movement. Not clear how independence will help them in any way. The right thing to do for them is to move abroad until Spain can accommodate more work force in the future, if ever. And being EU member state citizens, they can do just that, which will be impossible in theoretical case of independence.

·      Students, easily inflammable for any cause they see as just. Not a lot of logic behind their involvement, mostly feelings. They cannot express what makes them so pro-independent and anti-Spanish, it just will take a little bit more education to sort it out.

·      Adults engaged in small business or local employment, who are not connected with bigger Spain or Europe on daily basis, spend their holidays at home and generally do not see how independence can adversely affect their living.

Political class, actually the part that wants itself a government, a seat in UN and, preferably, a government jet to move around, simply attempted a power grab, capitalized on discontent of those parts of society described above because of hardships of economic crisis of 2008-2015. Luckily for them they failed and, hopefully, the whole business will deflate into more autonomy for Catalonia, which it obviously deserves.

What would be wrong with the independence you may ask? A few things.

First and foremost, Catalonia will forever be banned from EU as Spain has a veto right on any new members at it would not be shy to use it. That said, Catalonia is out of free trade arrangement with the rest of Europe and has a couple of bad options – joining WTO to be able to use preferential trade regime under its auspices or try to negotiate FTA with EU. Both will take years with uncertain chances for success. In the meantime, the manufacturing and trade will suffer big time.  

Second, no free movement of people.

Third, high additional expense for actual governance, from building an army to opening embassies.

And the list goes on and on. It would be a classical scissors between diminishing revenues and mounting expenses without an opportunity to borrow, which will see Catalonia crashing out to print its own currency with high inflation embedded. Of course, it would be Spain to blame for anything that goes wrong ??

This is the clearest example why villagers’ thinking that it would be better to crawl back into the hole and be friendly with the neighbors out of it doesn’t stand a reality test. Citizens can tolerate this behavior, but not encourage it. You need to get out of it and face the elements with the others to be part of the gang.

So, what will happen next with the sweeping changes world have been undergoing now and how what is the endgame? All things considered equal, villagers stand little chance in the modern world. They can delay it, but not derail. And to sweeten the pill, citizens will soon offer them those guaranteed income schemes across the board, swiping the rag from beneath the feet of the likes of Trump. Seems to be a winning strategy after all.