Why Is Nobody Talking About Indonesia's Deflation and Shrinking Middle Class?

Why Is Nobody Talking About Indonesia's Deflation and Shrinking Middle Class?

In a world where inflation struts around like a drama queen and tech billionaires take turns launching their midlife crises into orbit, Indonesia’s unique economic predicament—the twin quirks of deflation and a shrinking middle class—is barely a blip on the radar. Why? Because it’s boring, that’s why. No one wants to hear about an economy quietly unraveling when there are viral videos of cats riding Roombas to watch.

Deflation doesn’t have the razzle-dazzle of inflation; it’s just prices sneaking lower while businesses wince and the economy awkwardly clears its throat. And as for the shrinking middle class? Snooze. Who cares about the bedrock of economic stability when we could be debating which billionaire threw a better tantrum at a congressional hearing?

It’s not that people don’t care. Okay, maybe it is that people don’t care. But can you blame them? Caring is exhausting, especially when the problem at hand is complicated, gradual, and doesn’t involve anything exploding. So, Indonesia’s economic woes shuffle along unnoticed. Meanwhile, the world continues scrolling, blissfully unaware that behind the curtain, something quietly and profoundly important is falling apart.


Deflation: A Sale So Good, It Might Bankrupt the Whole Economy

Who doesn’t love a bargain? There’s nothing quite like the thrill of snagging a deal—50% off that air fryer you didn’t need or a discount on socks that’ll live their lives unmatched in a drawer. Now imagine that feeling stretched across an entire economy. Welcome to Indonesia in 2024: six straight months of deflation, a "reverse miracle."

At first glance, it sounds fantastic, right? Groceries for less, a cheaper night out, and maybe that overpriced latte becomes an underpriced one. But here’s the thing: deflation isn’t just a sale; it’s a symptom. It’s the economy whispering, "Help, I’ve fallen, and I can’t get up." When consumers start waiting for prices to drop further, businesses start gasping for air. Turns out, even the most loyal customers won’t keep you afloat when they’re all waiting for a better deal.

And where is the government in all this? Well, they’re on deck with a waterlogged bucket, trying to bail out the economy. Their solution? Maybe cut interest rates and hope for the best—or, more likely, just hope nobody’s paying attention.

But don’t worry: at least someone is winning. Oh wait—nobody is. The consumers are anxious, the businesses are desperate, and the economists are drafting their "I told you so" op-eds. In the meantime, Indonesia gets to keep playing this economic Black Friday, except there’s no doorbuster prize at the end—just a lot of busted doors.


The Middle Class: Now You See Them, Now You Don’t

If the middle class were a species, conservationists would be scrambling to slap a "Save the Middle Class" logo on tote bags. Since 2019, Indonesia has bid farewell to a staggering 10 million people from this critical economic group. Where have they gone? Vanished into thin air? Enrolled in some global disappearing act? Sadly, the answer is less glamorous: they’ve been unceremoniously shoved into poverty. It’s less of a graceful descent and more of a brutal belly flop off the economic ladder, where the safety net has conveniently gone missing.

And yet, the collective response is... silence. The middle class is like that one friend in the group chat who keeps dropping heartfelt voice notes while everyone else responds with a thumbs-up emoji. This is the group that forms the very skeleton of Indonesia’s economy, but neglecting this backbone is going to lead to some serious problems down the line.

The middle class isn’t just a crowd of people obsessed with brunch or debating whether artisanal bread is worth the markup. They’re the engine that powers consumption, education, and small business growth. Without them, you’re left with two extremes: the elite, who are far too busy commissioning gold-plated swimming pools, and the poor, who can barely afford the swimming lessons.

What’s left is a hollow economy where innovation dries up, spending shrinks, and inequality blooms. It’s like playing Monopoly, but with no middle ground—just the rich buying up Boardwalk while the rest shuffle around Baltic Avenue hoping to scrape together enough rent. And if that’s the future, well, good luck rolling the dice.


Why Is No One Freaking Out? Because Denial Is Free (For Now)

The real question isn’t why Indonesia’s deflation and middle-class shrinkage are happening—it’s why nobody seems to care. Where’s the outrage? The front-page headlines? The impassioned debates on breakfast talk shows? Nowhere. Because denial is cheaper than a government bailout and twice as comforting. Why wrestle with economic crises when you can argue online about pineapple pizza or binge-watch another season of Love Is Blind?

For the general public, denial is the ultimate budget-friendly escape plan. You don’t need to understand deflation or worry about the middle class when TikTok has an endless parade of cooking fails and dance challenges. And who has time to analyze shrinking disposable incomes when celebrity drama feels so much more... solvable? If ignorance is bliss, then we’re living in paradise.

Officials, on the other hand, have perfected denial into an art form. They’re busy drafting press releases touting “economic stability” with a straight face, much like someone insisting their leaking roof is a feature, not a problem. Stability, in this case, is just a polite way of saying, "Hey, we’re not actively on fire today—so that’s progress, right?"

As for economists brave enough to point out the iceberg ahead, they’re quickly dismissed as party poopers. "Chill," officials say. “We’ll deal with it later.” And we all know what "later" means: a distant time when the problem either solves itself or becomes someone else’s headache. Until then, it’s business as usual—or rather, denial as usual.

So, why isn’t anyone freaking out? Because denial is free, readily available, and comes with no unpleasant side effects. Well, at least until reality sends us the bill.


Solutions? More Like Illusions

Solutions—a government’s favorite form of performance art. Every crisis comes with a neatly packaged "plan," unveiled with all the pomp of a TV reality show finale. But much like New Year’s resolutions, these plans are spectacularly ambitious, meticulously publicized, and quietly abandoned by February. The latest “solutions” for Indonesia’s deflation and vanishing middle class are no exception—equal parts vague, optimistic, and utterly disconnected from reality.

First up: stimulating consumer spending. Economists suggest we spend more, buy more, and generally consume our way out of the abyss. Translation? "Go ahead, max out your credit cards on stuff you don’t need so the GDP graph doesn’t look so depressing." Great idea—because nothing fixes financial insecurity like doubling down on reckless purchases.

Then there’s the perennial favorite: tax cuts for the middle class. Sounds promising until you remember that a huge chunk of that middle class has already been demoted to poverty. Tax cuts don’t mean much when you’re barely scraping together enough income to pay taxes in the first place. It’s like offering a coupon to someone who can’t afford to shop.

And let’s not forget the all-time classic: trickle-down economics. The theory goes that if you make the rich richer, their excess wealth will rain down on everyone else. Except, in practice, the wealthy are less inclined to “trickle” and more inclined to hoard. Offshore accounts don’t exactly stimulate local economies.

In the end, these so-called solutions are less about solving the problem and more about giving the appearance of action. It’s all theater—plans designed to look good on paper while ensuring the real work gets kicked down the road. Why fix the roof when you can just move the furniture around and call it a day?


Let’s face it: we’re the problem. Nobody’s talking about Indonesia’s deflation or vanishing middle class because, honestly, nobody wants to talk about it. These issues are like the broccoli of conversations—good for you, but completely unappetizing when you’ve got a juicy steak of distractions to sink your teeth into. Addressing them would mean acknowledging uncomfortable truths, like how deflation is quietly eroding the economy and how the middle class is evaporating.

But here’s the thing about problems: ignoring them doesn’t make them go away. Deflation and a shrinking middle class are the economic equivalent of termites. You can pretend they don’t exist while binge-watching your favorite show, but eventually, they’ll hollow out the entire foundation. And when the collapse comes, you’ll be left holding a pile of dust and wondering why nobody warned you.

So, what now? Start talking. Demand action. Accept that pretending everything’s fine only delays the inevitable. Because if we keep papering over the cracks, one day we’ll wake up to a full-blown collapse. And the only sound will be the collective chorus of “Why didn’t anyone do something?” spoken by everyone who chose to look the other way.


Yose Ma'ruf

Senior/Lead Piping Engineer at Engineering

4 小时前

Great perspective

Pria P

Building Ecommerce & AI at BlueSky

6 小时前

Quietly?

Ajay T.

Head, Ogilvy One Indonesia, Country Manager, Verticurl Indonesia

6 小时前

Exactly what we spoke about the other day. Completely agree.

Fadjar Sutandi

M&A Advisor; bantu pengusaha Indonesia divestasi perusahaannya dan mencari Strategic Partner international.

11 小时前

Is the VAT still going to be increased? That could be the final blow.

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