Why media's most recent narrative about AI and freelancing is wrong

As leader of the Upwork Research Institute, I am committed to educating the market on navigating the future of work to empower individuals and businesses to innovate, even and especially in the midst of unprecedented technological change like the advent of generative AI. Recent fear-based headlines present speculative claims about AI's disruption of the labor market, a one-sided narrative designed for clicks over counsel.?

The Upwork Research Institute is uniquely positioned to address these misperceptions because we have real-time insight into the world’s largest work marketplace. This allows us to accurately reflect AI's impacts on freelance work and see how it’s evolved over the past decade. Unlike others who rely on partial or outdated data or isolated anecdotes, our extensive data provides a comprehensive picture of how AI is influencing the freelance economy.

Let’s use our comprehensive data to explore the real impact of Gen AI on the freelance workforce.?

1. AI is having a net positive impact on the creation of new jobs and freelancer earnings on our platform. AI has been the fastest-growing category of work on our platform and we've seen AI & machine learning grow 50% year-over-year in Q1 2024. Not only has there been increased demand – generative AI job posts on our platform are up nearly 10x and related searches are up more than 21x when looking at demand activity since Chat GPT was widely released through 2023 – but our recent gen AI research has found that global C-suite leaders plan to increase hiring as a result of generative AI. In addition, freelancer earnings in high-value work, defined as contracts valued at over $1,000, have increased across all categories of work since the advent of Chat-GPT in November 2022. These demand trends have remained stable over time and reflect a robust and ongoing need for AI professionals in key areas, reinforcing the importance of continuous skill development in these domains.
2. Freelancers are 2.2x more likely to be using Gen AI frequently in their work compared to full-time employees. These findings are consistent with what Deloitte reported previously on freelancers being on the cutting edge of new skills and technologies. The Upwork Research Institute has also partnered with professors at Wharton and NYU to study the impact of AI on freelancer behavior. We found that if you are a freelancer working alongside AI today, you are becoming more specialized in your discipline, working on more complex and higher-value projects. In short, freelancers are displaying highly adaptive behaviors as a result of gen AI. Our platform analytics research has found freelancers earning 40% more by working alongside AI tools compared to those not working on AI projects.
3. Writing and Translation are the two categories where we have seen the most disruption, but even with a decline in job posts, hourly rates have increased. Despite a decline in job posts, hourly rates in Writing and Translation have actually increased, as more complex projects remain in demand and continue to provide substantial opportunities for freelancers—partially offsetting the negative impact. Even accounting for this negative impact, in total, we’ve observed an increase of 2.4% in job posts and a 1.3% increase in freelancer earnings per contract across our entire platform since November 2022.? Media headlines and working papers often focus solely on these two categories to fit their preconceived notions and miss the broader, more positive trends in the freelance economy.

This fear-mongering is nothing new. For example, when ATMs were introduced, many predicted they would replace bank tellers. However, the opposite occurred. ATMs took over routine transactions, reducing operational costs and enabling banks to open more branches. This expansion created more jobs for bank tellers, who then handled complex transactions and customer services, leading to an overall increase in bank teller employment. In the long run, ATMs complemented rather than replaced bank tellers, enhancing the banking sector's efficiency and job growth. We believe generative AI will follow a similar trajectory. Freelancers working alongside new technology will deliver greater value and innovation to the clients they serve.?

It is a disservice to Upwork freelancers and clients when headlines misrepresent the innovation and activity actually happening across the globe. The impact of generative AI is fast-moving and evolving and while the short-term effects can include disruption and displacement, the longer-term effects often involve adaptation, growth, and the creation of new opportunities. Upwork is as committed as ever to shaping a future of work where AI brings meaningful benefits to both freelancers and businesses, furthering our mission to create economic opportunities so people have better lives.

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