Why a Mélenchon Victory Could Actually Benefit Macron
Tomorrow French voters will decide the outcome of parliamentary elections. The party of the freshly re-elected president, Emmanuel Macron, and his allies hope to secure an outright majority. But the momentum has indisputably been with the motley alliance of greens, left and far-left parties led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Last night, passionate supporters of the latter, apparently knowing that I happen to be a French national, knocked on the door of my home in Brussels as part of a last-ditch attempt to secure the votes that could deliver a surprise victory. If they succeed, the centrist Macron may have little choice but to appoint the left-wing firebrand as prime minister, starting a turbulent “cohabitation” between two men who wildly differ in style and agree on little – whether it’s Europe, the economy or the war in Ukraine. For Mélenchon, who entered French politics before Macron was even born, that would be an impressive personal achievement. For Macron’s camp, a defeat would, no doubt, be hard to digest. Yet it may not necessarily turn the president into a lame duck for the rest of his five-year term. In fact, Macron may even ultimately benefit from a short period of cohabitation.
Mélenchon would come to power having promised a massive increase in public spending, a return to the retirement age at 60 and a price freeze for basic necessities. But he would do so in a rapidly worsening economic environment, with surging inflation, rising interest rates and depressed stock markets. His coalition might score some cookie points with largely symbolic measures such as reinstating the wealth tax, but would see its margin of manoeuvre considerably reduced amid deteriorating economic conditions. Slower growth and, quite possibly, a recession will adversely affect tax revenues while higher interest rates will limit the coalition’s ability to borrow its way out of the downturn. Tensions on the French debt (now at 112% of GDP) may make the picture even bleaker. Rarely do government see their approval ratings go up in such circumstances. Nor has Mélenchon done much to manage expectations. If anything, he has rather done the opposite, doubling down on his promises to reinvent France. The young Mélenchon canvassers with whom I exchanged last night were selling hopes of the “grand soir” in a way very reminiscent of the atmosphere of lofty expectations surrounding the left’s electoral victory in 1981 when Mitterrand entered the élysée palace.
Given Mélenchon’s bombastic style, one would naturally expect a cohabitation between the former Trotskyist and the ex-banker to be a constant showdown. But Mélenchon’s temper can be his worst enemy. Voters may quickly tire of his histrionics if economic prosperity fails to materialise.
?In the meantime, Macron would retain control of French foreign policy, which is considered to be a prerogative of the president even in periods of cohabitation. Under the French Constitution, the president also has the power to call anticipated elections, which past presidents have used to take advantage of favourable political cycles (as Mitterrand did after his election in 1981 and again after his re-election in 1988).
Macron is starting his second term without enjoying much of an electoral honeymoon. Even if his party were to secure a parliamentary majority, the beginning of a difficult economic cycle means that, from there, his popularity would almost surely further go downhill, while Mélenchon and his allies would keep making gains among disgruntled sections of the public.
Previous spells of cohabitation suggest that they benefit the president, as the primer minister takes the blame for economic woes. French voters are a notoriously impatient bunch. So a year as cohabitation president may not be too high a price to down an ascending rival.