Why Kamala Harris will Win the 2024 Election

Alright, here goes—my odds are 50/50, right?

As I examine the final hours of the 2024 presidential contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, distinct patterns emerge, painting a fascinating picture of modern American politics: Black and Latino men show increasing support for Trump, while white women in Iowa recently lean towards Harris

The 2024 Presidential Race: A Categorical Analysis

Donald Trump's Advantages

Immigration

Trump's immigration stance centers on decisive action, featuring plans for extensive deportation operations potentially molded after President Eisenhower's 1950s initiatives. His economic approach to immigration includes implementing a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 10% universal tariff on all U.S. imports, reflecting his commitment to restrictive immigration policies.

To paraphrase, the late, great American pollster, Forrest Gump's mom, "Elections are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

The Economy

Polling data reveals Trump holds a significant edge in economic confidence, with 55% of voters trusting his economic decision-making compared to Harris's 45%. His economic platform emphasizes the extension of his 2017 tax cuts coupled with his signature tariff policies, resonating strongly with voters concerned about financial stability.

Foreign Policy

Trump's approach to international relations is marked by strategic unpredictability and many differing points of view. However, Trump's assertive foreign policy approach resonates with a segment of the electorate. A Pew Research Center survey from September 2024 indicates that 48% of voters trust Trump to handle foreign policy effectively, compared to 44% for Harris.

Support Base

Trump maintains robust support among MAGA and key demographics, particularly male voters, where he leads Harris 52% to 46%. His strength among White voters, especially those without four-year college degrees, remains a cornerstone of his electoral strategy.

Harris's Advantages

Age

At 59, Harris benefits from voters' age-related concerns, with 46% viewing her age as an asset to her candidacy. In contrast, 49% of voters consider Trump's age of 78 a liability, marking a clear advantage for Harris in this category.

Voter Connection

Harris demonstrates stronger emotional resonance with voters, as 87% of her supporters characterize her as honest, compared to 76% of Trump's supporters who say the same about him. This perception gap suggests a meaningful advantage in voter trust.

Women Voters

Harris holds a commanding lead among female voters, securing 49% support compared to Trump's 41%. Her campaign effectively leverages issues like reproductive rights to strengthen this crucial demographic advantage.

Campaign Momentum

Recent polls show Harris gaining traction among women in Iowa, as well as for Black, Latino, and young voters. While these numbers haven't yet reached Biden's 2020 levels, she's offsetting any potential losses by increasing support among white voters, particularly college-educated women.

The "13 Keys" Analysis

Allan Lichtman's predictive model has accurately selected 9 of the past 10 US Presidents.

The model evaluates factors including incumbency, economic conditions, and social unrest, current indicators suggest an advantage for Harris. This systematic analysis framework provides additional context for her current momentum.

The 13 Keys Breakdown for the 2024 Election

As I wrote in "Kamala Harris & the 13 Keys" earlier this year, Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House gives Kamala Harris’s a slight edge over Donald Trump

• Party Mandate: FALSE (favors Trump) The Democrats lost seats in the 2022 midterm elections.
• Contest: TRUE (favors Harris) The Democrats have united behind Harris, avoiding a contentious primary.
• Incumbency: FALSE (favors Trump) Harris is not the incumbent president.
• Third Party: TRUE (favors Harris) There is no significant third-party challenge.
• Short-Term Economy: TRUE (favors Harris) The economy is not in a recession.
• Long-Term Economy: TRUE (favors Harris) Real per capita economic growth is strong.
• Policy Change: TRUE (favors Harris) The Biden-Harris administration has enacted major policy changes.
• Social Unrest: TRUE (favors Harris) Despite protests, there is no sustained, widespread social unrest.
• Scandal: TRUE (favors Harris) The administration is not tainted by any major scandal.
• Foreign/Military Failure: FALSE (favors Trump) The situation in Gaza is considered a humanitarian disaster.
• Foreign/Military Success: UNCERTAIN This key remains undecided, possibly due to ongoing global conflicts.
• Incumbent Charisma: FALSE (favors Trump) Harris is not considered charismatic by Lichtman's definition.
• Challenger Charisma: TRUE (favors Harris) Trump is not considered charismatic by the system’s criteria.

Analysis: Harris Has the Edge

Even when factoring in the first anniversary of October 7th and its potential impact, Lichtman’s system still predicts a Harris victory. Here’s why:

• Out of the 13 keys, 8 are currently true (favoring Harris), 4 are false (favoring Trump), and 1 remains uncertain.
• According to Lichtman’s system, a loss for the incumbent party is predicted only if 6 or more keys are false. Currently, only 4 keys are definitively false.
• The anniversary of October 7th would fall under the Foreign/Military Failure key, which is already counted as false due to the situation in Gaza. This event doesn’t add an additional negative key.
• Even if the uncertain Foreign/Military Success key turns false, it would still only bring the total to 5 false keys—still insufficient to predict a Harris loss according to the system.
• Lichtman’s system focuses on broader historical patterns and fundamental factors rather than short-term public opinion or specific events.

Final Word

Based on the factors analyzed above -- with a strong emphasis on Lichtman's 13 Keys and Harris' momentum, I believe that Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump with a larger margin than the polls are indicating.

But to paraphrase the late, great American pollster, Forrest Gump's mom, "Elections are like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get."

References:

• Pew Research Center: "In Tied Presidential Race, Harris and Trump Have Contrasting Strengths, Weaknesses" This report analyzes voter confidence in Harris and Trump across various issues, highlighting their respective advantages and disadvantages. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/in-tied-presidential-race-harris-and-trump-have-contrasting-strengths-weaknesses/
• The Wall Street Journal: "Where Trump Stands on Tariffs, Taxes and Immigration" This article outlines Trump's policy positions on tariffs, taxes, and immigration during the 2024 presidential campaign. https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/harris-trump-presidential-debate-election-2024/card/where-trump-stands-on-tariffs-taxes-and-immigration-OXS73wJa3XNxhh2itLdZ
• The Wall Street Journal: "U.S. Allies and Adversaries Brace for U.S. Policy Shifts Whether Harris or Trump Wins" This piece discusses potential changes in U.S. foreign policy depending on the election outcome and how global actors are preparing. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/u-s-allies-and-adversaries-brace-for-u-s-policy-shifts-whether-harris-or-trump-wins-165704c9
• Pew Research Center: "The Harris-Trump Matchup" This analysis examines voter preferences and demographic trends in the Harris vs. Trump presidential race. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/the-harris-trump-matchup/
• The Wall Street Journal: "Harris Is Still Trying to Rebuild Biden’s Winning 2020 Coalition" This article explores Harris's efforts to regain support among key voter groups that were crucial in the 2020 election. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/harris-is-still-trying-to-rebuild-bidens-winning-2020-coalition-423f43c6
• The Atlantic: "The Democratic Theory of Winning With Less" This piece analyzes the Democratic strategy of securing an Electoral College victory without a substantial popular vote lead. https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/kamala-harris-narrow-path/680465/
• The Atlantic: "The Trump Believability Gap" This article examines the challenges in assessing the credibility of Trump's policy proposals and statements. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/10/trump-believability-gap/680201/
• Pew Research Center: "Most Voters Say Harris Will Concede – and Trump Won’t – If Defeated in the Election" This report discusses voter expectations regarding the candidates' willingness to concede if they lose the election. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/10/10/most-voters-say-harris-will-concede-and-trump-wont-if-defeated-in-the-election/
• The Atlantic: "How Is It This Close?" This analysis explores the factors contributing to the tight race between Harris and Trump, despite various controversies. https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/11/swing-states-election-democracy-tight/680491/
• The Wall Street Journal: "Harris and Trump Rush to Overcome Vulnerabilities in Final Day Before Election" This article details the candidates' strategies to address their weaknesses as Election Day approaches. https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-harris-election-day-challenges-2024-02eb2e6b