Why iPhone sales numbers just aren't the right metric.

Whenever there are news about Apple, I always end up reacting.

It's like they are the "man to take down" these days... Public enemy #1, Love and Hate. Few comments are objective, I try to be, its less "newsworthy" and "clickbaitish". Yes I am a confessed Apple fan but because I believe they are aligned with my vision of how technology should integrate into people's life. That doesn't make them exempt to mistakes and that doesn't make me blind to their flaws. I see those too.

But today's article is another one you can read in so many different ways, yet it feels tainted by some desire to bring doom. So I will answer with an old rant of mine. "What matters is the ecosystem". 

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/apple-will-no-longer-report-iphone-sales-unit-numbers-2018-11

An ecosystem of integrated tools that work seamlessly with each other to deliver an improved lifestyle. Yes, then, I tend to agree, the right metric is User Base. The next one is Customer Satisfaction and how much the tech is making a difference to people’s life. This is exactly what Apple is doing.

"What you can do with it" that should be everything.

You all "Tech companies" out there, mark my words. The next time you speak about how many "terabytes / petabytes / Mhz / Ghz / 5G LTE" bla bla number metric or acronym you invented to look better over your competitors (I know - I come up with that Sh... for a living - you ain't fooling me) and you forget to explain to consumers how that actually converts in what we can do that's cool with your device ? then you can keep it. There is a global fatigue with metrics and acronyms nobody understands even (and I will be nice), from my own experience, by those on the retail floor (probably as much as 60% of sales people have limited clue beyond the sales pitch "this one is better cause it has more").

Tablets, Phones, Watches, Cars, TVs, etc... all are parts of the same OS stack with the ability to generate revenue through content sales. That's it. It's a content world out there. Wake up.

So back to Apple. You have to ask yourself what other devices they would have in the works to grow the ecosystem (rumour goes wild) I would be more concerned about that as a reflexion of how well they are doing, and they have the cash.

As far as Mobile Phone purely go ? let's face it. The category is dying. Yes, Mobile phones as we know them are nearing their end - wake up and smell the coffee. Every futurist will tell you. The enhanced Human is round the corner - (in Futurists terms, round the corner is roughly 15-20 years, sic...).

Today, more and more functions are integrated into wearable devices. Next category to watch (no pun intended) is eyewear and smart clothing (2-5 years).

So will there be no handheld device anymore ? I still believe there will be space for small handheld devices. Mainly flexible / foldable touch screens that integrate with voice commands and other AI - VR, M2M (Man to Machine) devices. Navigation and User Interfaces and by extension User Experience will evolve greatly from what we know today and that's what's really coming next. Yes Siri / Cortana and Alexia were just toys to test the whole idea. Now we need the real thing now that all of you out there have been used to "train the AI" for long enough...

So I will conclude on this:

Back to this article. Yes “mobile phone sales will plateau and decrease” by now you have understood why. Volume growth numbers are in cheaper devices in markets where smartphone adoption still has room. It's a choice wether you even want to compete there or leave the crumbs to other players. Nokia died trying... maybe let's not repeat that.

Give it 2-3 years max - Mobile phones won’t be the focus anymore. Actually they are already not the only focus anymore inside Apple (you can tell if you watch them close) even if releasing a new iPhone is still a thrilling event. Does Tim Cook want to protect Apple’s share value from overreaction by the market in the face of what's happening? Most probably. Are other competitors and competing ecosystems catching up ? Yes definitely ... and there are probably some small emerging players too, if you watch the AI space.

Is Apple at risk of some ground shifting under their feet ? With AI, I would say yes, it is very possible, while the risk is probably small, it should be acknowledged. Will they have an answer and present new devices that will help them grow beyond ? I believe so, their software stack and some of their hardware choices reflect that, but I am waiting.

Now, if you think they are an iPhone company, and if you think they are doomed because of screen resolution, camera pixel tech or 5G LTE chips they have or don't have, then you have been listening too much to all the rogue PR news feeds out there from competitors / social media influencers who are trying to reduce them to just that. A mobile device company that's got inferior tech inside from their competition, in the hope it will destabilise their market dominance. Hardware is not everything and you are only looking at one side of the story.

Do I still have faith in Apple's vision and services?

Yes I do, but not blind faith, more like an educated guess. We sure can’t forget how quickly companies like NOKIA disappeared, lost in trying to address a market of cheaper devices and focused on driving volumes. Maybe that's the mistake Apple is trying to avoid here. We can't chase volume for the sake of volume. There is a moment where the number means nothing anymore, it's bound to tank and so is revenue.

This is a fluid and fast moving world, Apple cannot afford to miss the AI / AR / VR boat... but they know that already.

Now, I will leave you with a few thoughts. I for one, keep waiting for SAMSUNG (love them too) to bring up their own OS stack outside of Google, sadly that ain’t happening, probably they’d have too much to loose breaking up. But think about the number of hardware devices they could actually command with a proper integration.

I think these days you have to control both hardware and software the way Apple does. In my opinion they have proven the model and the other strategies are doomed in the long run. But I will admit this is a pure gut feeling and nothing else - feel free to disagree or argue.

By the way, the world is ready for a new type of OS don’t you think? Something AI - AR native ... where are they?