Why India has high chances of being taken over by its own Military as its economy breaks down?

Ever since 2014, Modi government has been implementing innovative ideas to reform its economy. Over last four years, the government has undertaken tasks such as Demonetization of high currency notes, Goods and Services Taxes (GST), Building tallest statues, etc. There have been very rosy economic projections about country’s economy doing so well that it is beating China in terms of GDP growth and also putting behind France in terms of size of its economy.

However, There is also an evident paradox where the purchasing power of common man is not rising fast enough as the cost of living is rising in country. Why is the cost of living rising? Somehow, the rising Inflation has a direct role to decreasing circulation of currency. The demonetization experiment which is still claiming its success, by achieving amazing accomplishments such as getting rid of counterfeit currency from the financial system and all the elimination of black money from India, has failed to arrest a single person in a huge population after two years post demonetization.

Hence, I am not sure if you can call it any surgical strike to be a success when you have no evidence of any person holding black money getting arrested. However, Demonetization has certainly hurt Indian common man. Firstly, the circulation of currency in the economy slowed down significantly. Hence, inflation has hurt the purchasing power of common man. Secondly, it has hurt the small businesses who depended on cash transactions for survival. Hence, It has had a double whammy effect on the poor people of India. While Narendra Modi government has never cared for the poor people as the poor cannot make huge donations to their party, the supporters of Modi government still continue singing praises of demonetization experiment. With most broadcasting media that have become a puppet of the ruling party and even Newspaper editors have less freedom to criticize the government, we are witnessing a completely different form of governance in India.

The rising corporatocracy in India is becoming evident from the recent Rafale Aircraft deal with France. Additionally, the failure of MAKE IN INDIA is becoming obvious. What is even more obvious is that the success claimed by Modi government for MAKE IN INDIA is actually not even MADE IN INDIA. Most things are paid for by Indian tax payers and they are assembled in India. Not even a "screw" or "nail" for hi-tech military is actually made in India. Assembling things in India and claiming them to be MADE IN INDIA is just another way the government is adding to India’s growing trade deficits and they seem to not even understand it. The recent move by Modi government to invest in Infrastructure of Saudi Arabia proves that Modi government is completely directionless. I really cannot understand why would Indian government spend its taxpayer money on building infrastructure of Saudi Arabia? Why is Modi running India like CEO of some company? India is not a company but it is a country with over billion people.

The result of all such policies of Narendra Modi in terms of handling the country’s economy without proper understanding of common-sense macroeconomics is sure to lead India towards an economic crisis. The recent events in Gujarat state where the economy is doing so bad that migrant laborers from other parts of country who support their families by doing low pay jobs in Gujarat, had to flee the state because of growing incidence of violence against them. This has raised a big question mark whether the Gujarat Model was even a good model to be replicated for rest of country. It was the marketing of Gujarat Model which led to rise of Narendra Modi as prime minister back in 2014.

While it is my personal opinion, I believe that Narendra Modi has failed Indian economy and more the US Fed raises the interest rates, the more are the investors going to run away from Indian economy. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have given Indian capital markets a big thumbs-down this year, withdrawing Rs 90,746 crore so far, the highest ever. This is exactly what I had forecast on National TV back in 2015. India does not even have a robust manufacturing sector and most of the technology is imported from abroad. Hence, India does not have any major technology of its own. When US economy enters into a depression in 2019 following the 90-year depression cycle that started on 18th March 1929, Indian economy would be extremely vulnerable. The crisis will be far severe than any economic crisis India had in its post-independence era.

With the diminishing popularity of Modi amongst the electorate because of last 4 years of performance and the general dislike for Rahul Gandhi among-st the educated, it seems India will have a chaotic 2019 elections. The political democracy has been a failure for India and India should have constitutional reforms to have presidential elections like the United States. Other that such constitutional reforms, India also should have other reforms in order to make the rule of law same for all Indians. It should also stop the continuing brain drain due to caste-based reservations and ensure that irrespective of religion, a person has to follow the same laws. Today, there are different laws for people from different religions and this has created fissiparous tendencies amongst citizens of India.

According to the law of social cycle, the end of the Age of Acquisitors is followed by Age of Laborers. If there is no revolution that the Rule of Warriors is obvious. 

Hence, Most likely, Indian Military will have to take over the country to revamp its constitution. However, If the Army does not bring about much needed constitutional reforms and tries to stay in power too long, India will have a hard time ahead. The political parties have failed the citizenry and it seems the citizens are now losing their confidence in political system. Only time will tell, if the Military rule will be good or bad for the country. The politicians lack the guts to reform constitution so that it is fair for all. Hence, It would need the might of military to take control of the law and order and bring about the constitutional reforms. But, One thing is certain, five more years of Modi government would be a terrible disaster for India given the performance in last four years where the common man has suffered the most and the wealthy have benefited the most.

Besides, According to Pew Research Study survey, 53% Indian support the rule of Military. On top of everything, there are extreme risks of China invading India from North East if trade talks between the Trump and Xi fail because China will do it just to prove their economic and military dominance in Asia. One of important reasons that people of India supported Demonetization when it was introduced was because they wanted corruption to be routed out. However, the Agents of ruling party played an important role in making money from this demonetization experiment to benefit themselves. This is precisely why no black money hoarders went to jail as the politicians happen to be naturally corrupt in all political parties of India. India can avoid its military rule by endorsing people centric free market economic reforms and cleaning the system as I have outlined in my book MASS CAPITALISM: A BLUEPRINT FOR ECONOMIC REVIVAL.

I am releasing a translated version of this book in Mumbai and I hope it sends an appropriate message before it is too late for the country. Look forward to read my upcoming book to be released in financial capital of country in 2019.

I hope this message reaches the politicians who should worry about their fate as well as the Army chief Bipin Rawat, Major General G.D. Bakshi and Lt. General Prakash Katoch about their options if Military has to take over the country, because of rising unrest resulting from a collapsing economy in 2019.

About the Author

Apek Mulay is a business and technology consultant at Mulay’s Consultancy Services and entrepreneur with WFG. He has authored a trilogy in three consecutive years viz. Mass Capitalism: A Blueprint for Economic Revival (2014), Sustaining Moore’s Law: Uncertainty Leading to a Certainty of IoT Revolution (2015), and How the Information Revolution Remade Business, and the Economy: A Roadmap for Progress of the Semiconductor Industry (2016). His monograph on technology is entitled Improving Reliability of Tungsten Plug Via on an Integrated Circuitry: Process Flow in BiCMOS and CMOS technology with Failure Analysis, Design of Experiments, Statistical Analysis & Wafer Maps (2016). Apek also authored New Macroeconomics (2018) and edited Economic Renaissance In the Age of Artificial Intelligence (2019) with Business Expert Press. Mulay is author of patent Surface Imaging with Materials Identified by Colors. USCIS honored him with US permanent residency under the category of foreign nationals with extraordinary abilities in science and technologies. He engineer, economist, author, blogger and entrepreneur. Visit his Blog at www.ApekMulay.com