Why India Can't Afford Further Delays in Conducting the Census

Introduction

If you were around in the 90s or early 2000s, you likely recall the last census conducted in 2011. Perhaps you remember a census worker visiting your home, asking questions about your household—how many people lived there, your education levels, and whether you had access to basic amenities like a washroom.

Fast forward to 2024, and it’s time for another round of this crucial exercise. But this census is arriving three years late. While the delay can be attributed to the pandemic and the government's plans to transition from pen-and-paper to digital data collection, the repercussions of this delay are far more significant than mere inconvenience. The consequences are now creating serious challenges across various sectors.

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Why is the Census So Crucial?

The census is far more than a simple headcount of the population; it's a comprehensive data reservoir that shapes our understanding of the nation. It helps identify who lives where, tracks urban expansion, and informs necessary adjustments to social policies. From planning welfare programs to shaping political strategies, census data is the cornerstone for a wide array of decision-making processes.

For instance, the 1991 and 2011 censuses exposed a disturbing decline in the child sex ratio in states like Punjab, Haryana, and Gujarat. This trend of favoring male children over females led to government intervention, including the Pre-Conception and Pre-Natal Diagnostic Techniques (Prohibition of Sex Selection) Act in 1994. By 2015, the Beti Bachao Beti Padhao campaign was launched to address gender bias more aggressively.

Similarly, data from the 2001 and 2011 censuses highlighted rapid urbanization trends. This spurred initiatives like the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM) in 2005, followed by the Smart Cities Mission and the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT). These programs aimed to enhance the livability, sustainability, and management of Indian cities.

The Impact of Outdated Data

The delayed 2021 census means we are still relying on data from 2011, which is now outdated. This impacts a wide range of areas, from food security to employment.

Take food security as an example. The National Food Security Act (NFSA) promises subsidized food grains to two-thirds of the population, a ratio based on the 2011 census. Since then, India's population has grown significantly, potentially leaving over 10 crore people without access to this essential support. A poignant illustration of this problem comes from a 2019 Deccan Herald report, where a single mother in Delhi applied for a ration card. Five years later, her application remains waitlisted due to outdated census data, leaving her and many others unable to access subsidized food under the Public Distribution System (PDS).

The delay also impacts employment. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS), which provides wage employment to millions of rural households, relies on census data for fund allocation. Without updated figures, the scheme cannot function effectively, leaving countless households at risk.

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Migration, Urbanization, and Demographic Shifts

Migration and urbanization are other critical issues. States like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi, which see large inflows of migrant workers, are forced to base policy decisions on outdated data. It’s akin to navigating a fast-changing city with an old map—it simply doesn’t work.

Moreover, census data serves as a foundation for validating other key surveys, such as the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey, the Periodic Labour Force Survey, and the National Family Health Survey. These surveys rely on sampling, but the census provides comprehensive coverage, enabling the triangulation of data for accuracy. Without up-to-date census data, these surveys risk painting an inaccurate picture of the economy.

The Political Ramifications of Delayed Data

The delay also has political implications, particularly concerning delimitation—the process of redrawing electoral boundaries based on population shifts. By 2026, India's population is expected to reach 1.46 billion, making accurate census data essential for ensuring fair representation. For example, Karnataka could see its Lok Sabha seats increase from 28 to 36, while Uttar Pradesh could jump from 80 to 128 seats. Conversely, Kerala, with its slower population growth, might lose some seats. Without accurate data, this crucial political process risks being based on outdated assumptions, leading to unequal representation and resource allocation.

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Conclusion

The solution is clear: India must prioritize conducting the delayed census. The stakes are too high to let this critical task languish any longer. Accurate data is the foundation for sound economic, social, and political planning. The sooner the census is completed, the sooner we can address the gaps it has left and build policies based on reliable, up-to-date information.

In a rapidly evolving country like India, the cost of further delay is simply too great to ignore. With countries like the UK, China, and the US having managed to complete their censuses despite severe COVID-19 outbreaks, India must act swiftly to do the same. The long-overdue 2021 census is not just a formality; it’s an urgent necessity.