Why I Think Trump Will Win

Disclaimer - Social history perspective.

So, as a social historian by education and a generally nosy person in life, I am always fascinated by how social movements start and what they mean. Take the UK Referendum - the night before I said to my partner as we bit our nails on the sofa...'Peter...I think leave will win. '

When he asked why, the answer I gave was this.

Mostly, when you vote in the UK it doesn't really count. It isn't like the total number of votes means that's the party in power - its more fiddly than that. So when people who are feeling disempowered, disenfranchised or disenchanted by the current system are given an opportunity to vote, and for that vote to count... then they will vote against the status quo.

Also, if you spend all your time with folks like you - it is easy to forget that there are those who think differently. This is the censorial power of group think. I experienced being a reluctant Remainer ( don't like centralised bureaucracy ) but I couldn't allow myself to align with some of the views that Leave were associated withy voting Leave - even though I agreed with some of the criticisms of the EU.

The same applies in the US election. Hilary, god love her, stands for the Establishment, the status quo, the liberal (ish) democracy.

Trump, on the other hand, stands for the American Dream - the 'if i can anyone can' and he speaks to the concerns and in the language of, a large percentage of the population.

We may take issue with the language, the tone or even the sense, but the 'we' who do, may be a more minority group than we care to think, just because we spend most of our time with others who think the same. And consume our media accordingly.

Whether we like it or not. And whether we think he is a worthy leader or not, Trump stands for a disruption of the status quo. And for many voices unheard in various ways, he may well prove a rallying force.

I experience the same to be true in our own lives. That when we find things not to our liking, we are more inclined toward radical change. What do you think?

Discuss!