Why I really frown upon Belgian COVID-19 approach, but have come to accept it

Since day 1, Belgium has enjoyed a bad reputation with regards to COVID statistics. To date, we still lead the 'death per capita' ranking, for countries over 1 million inhabitants. That is partly related to our out-of-proportion death ratio, accumulated since the start op the measurements early last year. It is hard to grasp. More research will be required to explain.

But that's not the topic of this article

I do not like bad news. What I dislike even more is untruth.

Recapping 'Belgian COVID'

on March 13, 2020 we went in lockdown with most of the other European countries. By end of May and early June, the need to open up and breath again caused us to cautiously open up activities and businesses again. By October last year we got a new federal government (*), and their first talk was to tackle the surge of the COVID-19 crisis. On October 19, 2020 Belgium went into partial lockdown.

All non-essential commerce (bars, restaurants, non-food retail and personal care like hairdressers) had to close down. By that time it had become clear that something needed doing, but measures seemed draconic to say the least. Schools and universities had remained open: today, only the younger children (up to the age of 12) could almost enjoy new normality, where as the rest of us needed to avoid contact in any form.

It took about 6-8 weeks for Belgian statistics to flip. The approach, draconic as it was, seemed to generate results. About halfway December, some of the restrictions got lifted: non-food retail could open up again, just in time for the Xmas shopping period; on the other hand, travel outside the country has been advised against.

That made Belgium, together with France as most locked down countries of the European Zone.

Today, the contrast with surrounding countries is striking. With the exceptions of France and Luxembourg, our closest neighbours (UK, Germany and The Netherlands) are in a worrisome state. Outlook remains uncertain, to put things mildly.

Then again, depending on which media you prefer to follow, above can be confirmed or refuted.

Which medium tickles your fancy?

Mainstream media will have you believe that Belgium is doing worse than ever, despite the stats - counterstream media will claim that the Belgian government(s) have been overexerting their mandates and that economic & social fallout will be tremendous, and tend to use the same stats to plead relaxation. It is unclear to me how to fact-check these claims, but that a political agenda radiates through in both cases, is crystal.

I am a data person. And as an analytics/facts & figures guy I have to say: neither. This morning I carried out a careful analysis (**) based on two specific stats: Average Death Toll and like Infection rates. Both of them calculated per capita.

Before you read any further, there are a couple of things to be said about these stats:

First: the most dependable COVID-19 stat is death toll. Even though it may be under reported in some regions and - although some have tried, it has proven difficult to hide dead people.

In some countries (not unlike Belgium) there may even have been some initial over-reporting.

Also, in many places, a time difference may exist between death and reported death. People dying over the weekend get underreported, whereas mondays and tuesdays seem to be up to twice as deadly as any other. Therefor, I prefer to look at last-7-day average stats.

Secondly: Average Death Toll is a lagging indicator. It mostly reflects the state of infection roughly 10-18 days prior to itself. By the same token, Infection Rate is a leading indicator, which sadly but accurately tends to predict future Death Toll. And for the same as above reasons, I prefer to use the last-7d-rolling infection average to venture in like-for-like regional comparisons.

Thirdly: facts are facts, but Trends are more useful in choosing direction. A major drawback of using Trend based on last 7 day Averages is that it is a little behind today's reality, about 4 days, on average.

What could this signify, for our region as well as the rest of the planet?

Our region, including Spain, Italy, the UK, France, Belgium, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and Luxembourg are doing ... not so good.

In most cases, 7d AVG Death Toll is following the world wide trend although, on average, 4 people per 100.000 are reported dying from COVID-19, which is more than 4x higher than the world average. Worse than that, the 7d AVG Infection Rate is going up as well, predicting more carnage to follow.

The world, on average is mostly flatlining based on 7dAVG Deaths, averaging a less than 1/100.000 number, although this trend seems to be rising over the last couple of days. The World-Wide 7d AVG Infection Rate Trend is what worries me most. It has gone up quite briskly over the last couple of days, and although it may still be a blip, after coming down gently starting December it has gone up from 42 to over 53 / 100.000 people infected in the last 10 days. Which is a stark predictor of what is to come.

Poor little Belgium?

I want to plead guilty of negativism. I am fed up with not being able to visit friends without feeling awkward. I hate the guilt trip that is being forced upon us for travelling, especially living in a country in which it is virtually impossible to travel 100 miles without crossing a border. I hate the fact that COVID-19 has been dominating all political agenda and their respective media since - forever? I yearn to be able to go to an outside terrace and meet with even a handful of friends. Not to mention engaging them in our favourite indoor sport: a game of squash. I have distant memory of carelessly brushing up against other people during a concert, and eagerly shuffling down a movie theatre or junk food queue line. Things which today, simply draws shiver across my spine.

The facts ...

... are the facts. Contrary to our direct neighbours, Belgium has halved 7d AVG Death Toll from 6 / 100.000 inhabitants to about 3. Infection rates have dropped from their mid-December 155 / 100.000 peak to less than 75 / 100.000 only a few days ago. We have been in severe partial Lockdown, and been so since the second half of October. France, who is in en even more severe lockdown situation since early December is showing similar results: they went from 140 / 100.000 infections mid-December to less than 100 today.

When I look at the combined overall average for our mutual neighbours, with the exception of Luxembourg (***), meaning: UK, Spain, Italy, Switzerland, The Netherlands and Germany: each of them individually as well as a group share similar stats: coming from 3.5 / 100.000 Death AVG (150 / 100.000 Infection Rate) then oscillating between 4.7 and 3.5 over December month, now clearly heading to > 5 / 100.000 inhabitants (240 / 100.000 Infections Rate), which is 5 times the average Death Toll compared to the World Average.

The France + Belgium combined stats (****) have been going down mostly from 4.3 mid December to 2.8 today. Although our trends are similar, to our southern neighbour, individual results vary: France has dropped Death Toll AVG from 4 to 3, Belgium from 5 to 3. Over the same period, our joint Infection Rates have oscillated between 100 and 150, Belgium individual score is somewhat better but very alike.

So flipping what?

I do not like the measures imposed upon us. And I loathe political recuperation, from all sides. But I cannot disregards the stats.

Unfortunately, things are not looking up. Looking at the rest of the world, the outlook, unfortunately is grimm. Latin America was seemingly doing ok now, but they are showing bad evolution on both metrics, with their summer drawing to an end, that will likely not improve.

Canadian trends are extremely worrisome, despite having maintained strict travel bans versus the rest of the world, it seems like they might have imported some from their southern neighbour.

The situation in the US defies description. Death AVG stats are above 5 and rising - which is higher already than the European Average today - but Infection Rate Stats which had been flatlining almost round the 400 / 100.000 Inhabitants mark early December, seem well on the rise once more which regretfully, predicts worse to come.

To my US friends & colleagues: I hope you guys beat us by vaccinating like it's 2021 ...

I do not like politics. I do not like the current situation in Belgium. I believe the measures taken will come at unprecedented cost, which will in turn lead to more hardship and suffering. I believe our Government could have communicated better. I can feel myself rebelling against their measures - and becoming deaf to confusion in their communication.

However: I have come to the conclusion that, no matter how rough & unpopular, our Government may actually be doing the right thing which seems to include erring rightly on the side of medical caution.

Even if that means tightening ship even more in the coming weeks. Or just being a little more transparent about it ...

(*) remember: this is Belgium still; we had been 600+ days without effective Federal Leadership. COVID may have been the sense of urgency we needed, sorry to say. After which it took a mere 200 days to form our current Government; beating our 2012 World Record of 541 days. Trust me, you do not want to know more. We are fine. And somewhat ashamed.

(**) a well deserved shout-out to Ole Dyring from TARGIT HQ, who has been diligently keeping up the statistics for almost a year now. I believe the way forward (unfortunately) is accurately being predicted in his "Infection Trend Dashboard"

(***) Luxembourg, a neighbour which I have arbitrarily decided to leave out of this comparison: despite having maintained some of the most relaxed confinement rules, their trendline is doing ok. It is the only place where you can still go today (January 8, 2021) and walk into a bar or restaurant. However: Luxembourg population number is about 600.000 in total & their relative average Infection Rate is showing signs of frenzy: from over 600 / 100.000 inhabitants early December, to less than 100 / 100.000 early January back up to 193 / 100.000 today. I have no clue what to make of that, but feel free to simulate here. (*****)

(****) I have decided to group France and Belgium to try and make a like for like comparison based on COVID policy similarities. The difference in policy is reflected mostly by the duration of the measures, but otherwise, measures have been similarly strict. Same things are happening in Italy. They have certainly recovered well from a bad place. A shout-out to all Italians, hang in there! Yet I have decided to include them in the control group, as a direct neighbour of France.

(*****) similarly the Luxembourg Death AVG stat has been going from 9 / 100.000 inhabitants down to 1 back up to >4. Hard to make any predictions based on that. I love my colleagues and friends in the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, and I am sure they will be fine without inclusion in this analysis.