Why I Have More Confidence About China's Future When It's Suffering From COVID-19 and Trade War

Yuanpu

Don't get me wrong; I do not like the words "多难兴邦" (What doesn't kill a country makes it stronger), because many politicians frequently use these words to divert people's attention from their dereliction of duties after tragic things happened. 

Because many tragic things should not have happened, and people do not want to bear or deserve the sadness. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake was a natural disaster that most Chinese did not blame the government, but the ongoing COVID-19 is more like a man-made disaster; The Wuhan officials have been doing an awful job, many of them should be penalized.

And the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, it's obvious, China is at a disadvantaged position. Just check the articles of the phase one deal; almost all the contents are what China has promised and need to do next. Otherwise, it will be punished. President Trump was right; he is winning and getting the prize.

But President Trump's claimed big win would likely be a short-sighted win, the U.S.'s best opportunity was in 2018, by using flatter instead of a trade war. Historically, most Chinese dynasties in ancient once reached their prime periods (economically or militarily no.1 in the world), but all the prime did not sustain for a long time. 

Why? The emperors' self-satisfaction plus applause and flattery from almost every subordinate, made them believe that they were the truth and could live long and even forever. It only took a dozen years for most Chinese ancient dynasties to develop from flourishing to decline. 

Most dynasties were spare no effort in the first 50 to 70 years, and reached the prime around the 100 anniversary of the founding. Objectively speaking, the current ruling party in China has mission and vision, and good crisis awareness. The people's Republic of China will doubtless surpass all the ancient dynasties, and reach its prime.

About two years ago in late 2017 to early 2018, when China fell into a state of self-satisfaction, and many Chinese regarded China as the most powerful country in the world. The best way to counter China at that time was to flatter China and its leaders, let China have more space and responsibilities to donate money to other countries and praise China's political system. Chinese love "面子" (save face), and would like to give if they are flattered.

The trade war and the COVID-19, like two basins of cold water, let most Chinese wake-ups and found out China is not the most powerful country yet. The propaganda conducted by the state-owned media have returned to normal; there are much fewer self-satisfaction articles right now.

The normal public mentality is back; the good part of Chinese characters, including hard-working, pragmatic, self-reliant, and so on, will support China's further development. At least, the "cold water" effect will last for several years.

Western media has promoted the Chinese decline theory for more than 30 years, and this time under the situation of COVID-19, more negative news has been published. Understandably, good progress goes unnoticed, negative new spreads fast; but try not to be too arrogant.

Probably the next "flattery" opportunity will be around 2030 when China's GDP becomes the no.1 in the world. The truth is, China has so many to learn, the so-called economically no.1 does not mean "the most powerful"; When talking soft power, China is far from catching up with the U.S. But most Chinese would forget this if they are flattered.

From flourishing to decline, it only takes several years if there is no self-examination.