Why google to decode a black swan?

The odds are, that business will fail. Cold, dark reality. Proven mathematically. Emotionally. Rationally. And every other way. So, by starting one up, it always becomes a race against time and all other odds. There are no base lines. There is no research data. There is no standard cost. There are no pricing benchmarks. There is no market. There is no brand. And there is very little money around, to cushion the loud thuds, that we hear every once in a while.

Fundamentally, start ups are about making success in a scenario where probabilities render themselves, non computable. Traditional data science does not work in this space. Assessing risk adjusted returns, takes an art form here. Much against the tradition of treating this concept, as science.

Fundamentally, start ups that exit the gravitational tug, are the ones which are able to coincide, six disconnected variables. They are able to get:

1. their teams to swing hard
2. cash in bank to outlast their expenses
3. their customers to love them
4. their product to positively and significantly impact a subset of the mankind
5. deliver value for their investors and
6. retain their edginess.

Yes, there are six. And yes, these are indeed disconnected. And yes, they are all variables.

How hard is it to see a scenario, where a start up builds a business by altering a habit, only to run out of cash, when the market was poised to return the favour? Or when one half of a deeply passionate team, wants to swing one side. And the other, in another direction? And it's hard to say, which side is indeed the right side! Or when the customers love something. But aren't willing to pay a premium for what they love.

The coming together of these six variables is what is theoretically, called a black swan event. That's where I differ from this view. I don't agree that black swan is a high profile, hard to predict rare event. In my view, it's a high profile, hard to predict rare occurrence. Calling it an event, takes away from the mankind. It externalises it. Makes it supernatural. A bit enigmatic.

Occurrences are manmade. They are forced against the will of nature, science and art for the good of the mankind. They are an outcome of winning the battle called progress, that start ups fight each day. And hit the sack each night, knowing that tomorrow isn't going to be an easy day. But it might just be the day, that we may coincide all six variables. And get the black swan to occur. Escaping the hold of gravitational tug, that we experience each day.

Start ups bring to fore, the resolve to survive, that human race has the potential to demonstrate. To look past today. And be around tomorrow. Much against the laws of mother nature. Only to nudge the human race forward.

May be, by just an inch. But forward.