Why a global recession is inevitable in 2023

Hello from London,

What does 2023 have in store? It’s a tough enough challenge for me, each week, to weigh up what looms in the news just a few days ahead. So spare a thought for my colleagues who have the much harder task of delivering our annual look at what’s coming in the year ahead . You might think the trickiest bit is to be accurate. It’s not. After all, much is predictable: I dare to forecast, for example, that Vladimir Putin will still rule Russia (and still be a war criminal) in 2023. What’s hard is to be both correct and interesting.

Take our forecast that recession threatens the world next year —and, in many places, is inevitable. Europe is battered by an energy crisis and by other effects of the war in Ukraine. Britain looks particularly vulnerable, not least because of the painful drag of Brexit plus needless bungling by the government. Everywhere is still suffering the after-effects of covid-19, not least on supply chains. In various economies this week we’ll get new figures for GDP growth in the third quarter.

China faces an especially grim challenge—with big consequences for its economy—as it tries to avoid more protests, but also mass deaths among its poorly vaccinated population, a risk of easing lockdowns. We have written in depth about the dilemmas facing Xi Jinping in our recent cover story . I’d also recommend a recent podcast, Drum Tower, where our correspondents discuss the protests they witnessed . This is a story that will continue to run.

Talking of recession, how bad will things get for white-collar workers? That’s the question raised by our latest article on the American economy. A heads-up: those in offices (real or remote) need not be too concerned. After all, most rich countries are in the unusual position of suffering low or negative growth while also enjoying remarkably high levels of employment. Jobs numbers in America last week gave a further reason for cheer. With the Fed hinting at a more dovish path, there’s one part of the world that can be more optimistic.

In Ukraine, meanwhile, we have a new report on the challenges of winter . As Russia destroys infrastructure, leaving people without heat, electricity or water, it will be those who rely on social services—the elderly especially—who are at biggest risk. We won’t let up in our regular coverage of life on the ground in Ukraine.?

I’ll also pay attention to political stories in America in the coming days. Tuesday brings the runoff election for the Senate in Georgia. Will Raphael Warnock defeat his Trumpian opponent, Herschel Walker? My hunch is that he will. Polls give Mr Warnock the edge. And Mr Walker is a deeply flawed candidate. Nothing is guaranteed, but if the Democrat wins then Joe Biden’s party has a more secure hold on the Senate. A defeat for Mr Walker, meanwhile, would be another knock to Donald Trump’s standing in his own party. (His legal troubles this week could add to that.) Within a few days I could imagine Mr Warnock being hailed as a rising Democratic star. Might we soon be discussing Warnock 2024?

For a change of scene, meanwhile, have a look at a state election in India later this week. Perhaps you don’t closely follow electoral politics in Gujarat, a western state where incomes are higher than much of India. I used to spend quite a bit of time there, chatting to people who knew Narendra Modi, now the prime minister, when he was young. Gujarat still matters in part because Mr Modi used to run the place and long promised that its economic model could be applied to the rest of India. After many years of his premiership, it’s a good moment to ask if he has delivered.

Thanks for your overwhelming feedback last week in response to my questions over Mr Xi and the Chinese protests. To summarise what almost everyone suggested: Mr Xi won’t bend, but will do what he calculates is essential for holding on to power. I asked if the Chinese people have been pushed too far, and was struck by a message from Kylxyz Abraham, who was born in China, saying “it’s beyond too far” and calling for outsiders to show they support Chinese people who have protested. One idea Kylxyz raises: those attending the World Cup could hold up blank pieces of paper, just as protesters in China did.

My question for you this week: will we soon be talking of Raphael Warnock as a potential Democratic presidential candidate for 2024—or weighing up the surprise victory of Herschel Walker in Georgia instead? Write to me (and before the results come in!) at [email protected] and you’re welcome to follow me on Twitter at @ARobertsjourno.

Adam Roberts, Digital editor

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