Why are Exit Polls banned between election phases?
Short opinion piece, no statistics.
The Election commission ordered filing of FIRs against Dainik Jagran and an agency in 15 districts of Uttar Pradesh. This is because the newspaper had allegedly published an exit poll a day after the first phase of the UP poll. The law expressly bans conducting and publishing exit polls during the phases of a multi-phase election. Leaving aside the issue of law, here is why exit polls are (rightly banned) between election phases
a. Most exit polls have proven to be inaccurate in estimating seats. In essence, why publish inaccurate information in the guise of a scientific survey. Exit polls inaccuracy has only increased over the last 24 months
b. As our surveys have shown, due to the increased engagement of voters, many voters are now waiting until the last fortnight to determine their voting choice, they are now likely to be influenced by these incorrect exit polls
c. The EC has no way to determine which exit poll is scientific and which is not. So it is likely that malicious exit polls would also make their way into the media and unleash unpredictable consequences
d. Exit polls generally serve little purpose to the voters beyond telling them the likely momentum (which may also be inaccurate). Usually, a small voters tend to choose on the basis of momentum in the last few days. With the publication of exit polls, more voters are likely to be influenced by momentum, an unhealthy trend in a democracy
Of course, one could argue that if opinion polls can be published a few days before the election, why not exit polls? The difference is when the survey has been done. Exit polls having been done with those who have already voted give the impression of greater truth. That gives them greater ability to influence elections than opinion polls. Also, with most following the law, one or two violators could have an outsized impact on the election.
Exit Polls, encouraging more laziness in our society
Exit polls whet the interest of the most engaged citizen many of who view politics and elections no differently than the English Premier League. It is a form of entertainment where there is little effort to understand the nuances that determine true Governance. Should media houses be truly interested in making a difference, old fashioned fact based journalism understanding the performance of governance in the lives of ordinary voters could be far more useful for the betterment of the country. It is a difficult choice in this bloody thirsty social media environment where political parties have become similar to football teams and there is more love for own favorite leaders than Lionel Messi. The only difference perhaps is you know when Messi is playing well, with our own favorite leaders, it needs a lot of effort to know and understand, something completely lacking these days.
General Manager at VSL International Inc.
8 年To understand this better, one should study the voting trends in west coast and Hawaii of the USA.
Founder Gyan Vardhini Gurukul
8 年I think the reason for incorrect exit poll is digital communication it might be possible that the survey is done trough social networking groups or with the availability of contact details of voters trough different sources sometimes it might be done over the phone call two, which may lead to misguiding results.
Director Client Service at Nielsen
8 年The ban on publishing exit poll results came in after 2004 Lok Sabha elections, during which some channels aired exit poll results / forecast after each phase of voting. The ban is justified and it is in fact followed by many other countries. Exit poll results / forecast can be aired only after the end of voting process. Exit polls in traditional methodology are fraught with risk as the sample is self-selecting. It is for this reason many agencies have moved to post polls, i.e. collect data on the next of polling, which gives a certain control over sampling. Complete ban on polls is not a good idea. However, there should be some governance to prevent malicious polls by unscrupulous agencies at the behest of unscrupulous parties or media.
Additional Director General, M/o Rural Development, GoI, New Delhi
8 年it may be allowed provided they use proper statistical technique.