Why is Erdogan taking a back seat in the run-up to the Istanbul elections?

By Ragip Soylu - MEE Turkey Bureau Chief

Dear readers,

There are just three days left until Turkey will hold mayoral elections but you wouldn’t know it if you ventured out into the streets.

Maybe it’s because of Ramadan and the day-long fast that Muslims observe.

Have some voters decided to focus their attention away from daily politics to acts of worship and other pressing regional issues? Whatever the reason, I’ve never witnessed such a calm election cycle.

The question, however, on many prospective voters lips is whether incumbent Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu can secure re-election come Sunday.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as mayor of Istanbul between 1994-1997, once said that whoever takes Istanbul can also capture the whole country in the general elections.

But Erdogan’s surprisingly taken a back seat in this upcoming vote. This is despite the fact that Imamoglu is widely seen as the opposition’s best bet at winning back the presidency from Erdogan’s AK Party in 2028.

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So, why is Erdogan keeping his cool?

For anyone that witnessed the 2019 and 2023 elections, Erdogan’s presence could be felt wherever you were in the country. He was on TV, radio stations and all over social media.

This time around, Erdogan’s held a few rallies but they’ve attracted substantially fewer supporters than when compared to previous years.

He’s also rarely on TV and his speeches are neither provocative nor divisive.

Every political analyst has said that Erdogan is eager to claim victory in Istanbul - but so far, he’s only held one large rally there – and last Sunday’s event, according to the president’s himself – was considerably smaller than what he previously attracted.

Erdogan’s populist steps also have been greatly limited. Every pollster or political observer knows that pensioners are his Achilles heel this time around.

Their monthly earnings are substantially lower than the minimum wage but he’s chosen not to increase them – why is that? Is Erdogan towing the line set by his new economy minister Mehmet Simsek and being more mindful of conservative fiscal policies?

I think Erdogan and his team are aiming to achieve two things:

First; the government doesn’t want to turn the local elections into a referendum or vote of confidence in Erdogan's presidency. A similar approach in 2019 backfired and they don’t want to repeat the same mistake.

Second, Erdogan’s comparatively non-divisive rhetoric might not motivate opposition voters to turn up to the polls.

“The election turnout rate in Istanbul was 90 percent and it may naturally drop to 85 percent,” Ulas Tol, a seasoned Turkish political researcher said. “If it is lower, it will be against Imamoglu. Below 83 percent, the risk begins for Imamoglu. ?I think he will lose if the turnout is below 80 percent.”

Imamoglu is ahead of Murat Kurum, the AK Party’s mayoral candidate, in several polls, but still within the margin of error.

So, I guess we’ll just have to wait and see who wins on Sunday.

Important thing to note, whilst no analysts are currently talking about the ruling party’s possible drop in nationwide votes and potential defeats in other large cities, such a discussion might dominate the news agenda on the weekend.

Worth mentioning

• The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) says that it has acquired the capability to shoot down Turkish armed drones operating in Turkey, Iraq, and Syria. A Turkish official with knowledge of the situation confirmed to Middle East Eye that the PKK has been trying to acquire kamikaze drone systems. “But it isn’t clear who is supplying these systems to them,” the official said. Read our report here.
• Two men accused of carrying out the 22 March attack on Moscow’s Crocus City concert hall travelled to Turkey in February to renew their visa-free stay in Russia, according to Turkish authorities. Read it here.
• Istanbul mayor Imamoglu’s re-election might boost and unify the Turkish opposition or his defeat may make the already deep divisions worse. Read our analysis here.

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