WHY ELECTIONS AMID JOLTING POLITICAL,ECONOMIC,CLIMATE, SECURITY,GEOSTRATEGIC SWING,LEGAL MYTIC& REGIONAL CHAOS?

Dear Pakistani brothers to be very honest to you, what all looks so miserable, eccentric, foolhardy &lopsided that compelled us to shout stop, please stop, kindly stop here, do not make another blunders. If not possible let us feel at least concerned that there is not a single factor that will lead us to restoration of economy & democratic norms in Pakistan till 2025,the reason is in such a big international turmoil things gets hazy & hazardous for all states .Folks the salient hurdles in the way of elections are:-

• There is no promising/young face to lead Pakistan, the same political dynasty is striving to bluff people again & ruin Pakistan once more? Why having obsoleted minds back in power specially once there is no level playing field for all participants????
• A horrific development that? worries us most is, the way India has now been totally isolated, their foreign policy set back is very severe, Israel slipping away, west already annoyed, Canada exposed their terrorism network, China threw them in ditch, Afghanistan discarded, routes to CARs through Chah Bahar port (Iran) dwindled, Russia turned unfriendly, Ukraine backup no more there, Armenia dissolved, Israel weakened,Bngla Desh turned Anti-India, IMEC Trade Route became flashpoint of ME turmoil, most of the Indian separatist moves /hot states have become untenable, Gaza Conflict revived Kashmir Issue back to lime light, America moved towards ME, NATO & Zelenski in deep crisis. All this turned India most paranoid, vindictive & hostile towards Pakistan?We would advise India to review your foreign Policy & forget about Pakistan if we want to live in peace & harmony with all neighbouring states.
• With the arrival of Nawaz Sharif ,departure of Afghan from Pakistan/Military Crackdown on Terrorists in Tribal areas & fixing Pakistans’next election date, India felt very relieved that Pakistan seem out of the eye of storm (became most vulnerable) So both the incidents of Indian baked terrorism in Ormara/Pasni area on 3 Nov 23 resulting in 17 deaths & today on 4 Nov 23 attack on Mianwali PAF Airbase are a clear message to let Pakistan’s security questionable? Situation is getting out of hands unless emergent is imposed?
• Pakistani judiciary has started digging old cases where Gen Pervez Musharraf sentence of death, Gen Bajwa & Gen Faiz Hammed part in Faizabad Dharna etc,etc besides putting Corruption cases of the PDM& Allies on back burner. Meanwhile PTI Leadership & supporters are being dragged in series of FIRs, arrested, put behind bar & adjudication / human freedom has become a puzzle for them? ??

• After sad incident of LUMS & clearly visible preferential treatment in favour of PMLN by ECP,Civil Admin,Caretakers,Berocracy, Judiciary, Nab.FIA,Police, Diplomats, non-state actors, rumor of invisible deal with establishment…. is being noticed even by the PDM divided parties & their Imported regime Allies, Media Houses, people of Pakistan & turning 64 % youths totally upset & angry? This is very big indicators that elections are heading for unfair /rigged polls & unfavorably coined results followed by unending internal unrest.
• We are terribly creeping towards bigger economic impasse if not default, Pakistani Rupee again depreciating, Utility Bills surged very high, POL Price escalation visible, Inflation & price hike is making common men double bend on their bellies with pain. How can we afford elections amid such an adverse economic chaos?
• SA,ME,Europe,Iran.India,Afghanistan,Russia,CARs in great flux, & China highly annoyed over west supporting Israel. Folks under such a regionally unstable geostrategic uncertainty who will stand by us for FDI to develop SIFC Objectives/CPEC 2nd Phase & provide funding for anti-terrorist ?operations…..?
• Lastly month of February is not weatherwise very welcoming for elections?

1.??? Worthy audience, the ECP's announcement of 8 Feb 2024 National, Elections coincides with the review talks between Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the release of $710 million second tranche of a $3 billion loan to the cash-strapped country to stabilize its debt-ridden economy. The clarity on the election date will strengthen the hands of the Ministry of Finance during the negotiations, which started on 2 Nov 23, although the IMF has not explicitly attached any such condition. The decision has garnered mixed reactions from political parties. The JUI-F has opposed the timing of polls due to “weather conditions”, while the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party threw its weight behind the ECP. The PPP and PTI, on the other hand, have called for the immediate announcement of the election date and assurance of a level playing field. The election date is expected to end the uncertainty in the country as political parties will now move into election mode.

• With the country’s main opposition party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), and its leader, former Prime Minister?Imran Khan, having faced months of a nationwide crackdown, concerns have been raised about whether the caretaker government and the ECP are ca Khan and his government were removed in April last year through a parliamentary vote of no confidence. The 70-year-old, who had been campaigning across the country to hold early elections after his removal, was jailed on August 5 on corruption charges. Able of holding fair elections. Later, a court suspended his three-year sentence, but Khan has remained in prison over charges related to the?“cypher case”, in which he is accused of making public the contents of a diplomatic cable for political gains.
• The political uncertainty in Pakistan has come at a time of economic instability. The country was hit by a balance of payments crisis as it tried to service high levels of external debt and deal with crushing inflation before the International Monetary Fund granted a?$3 bn bailout package?in June 23.
• The previous coalition government undertook unpopular steps, such as removing subsidies on fuel and gradually increasing the fuel and energy tariff, which led to record-breaking inflation in the country, triggering nationwide protests.
• There are also growing security concerns as the country’s northwestern and southwestern provinces are regularly attacked by the Pakistan Taliban, which has made a resurgence this year.
• These challenges have been compounded by major geopolitical events, including the withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan in August 2021, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict in 2023.

2.??? Worthy audience to discuss these and a host of other issues facing Pakistan, the institutions of Advanced International Studies hosted their IR studies /surveys &reaserch data on Pakistan This year’s theme was resilience and reforms, and speakers addressed topics including the future of artificial intelligence, the role of middle powers in today’s volatile geopolitical environment, and ways in which Pakistan’s economy can be reformed so that it generates opportunity for the many, not just for the few.Pakistani policymakers must pursue reforms in a way that builds resilience across millions of households.To do this, policymakers must turn their focus away from simple notions of economic growth and toward a more rigorous interest in improving overall human development in the country. Below are several key takeaways I heard from scholars and practitioners from Pakistan and the United States:

• Timely, free, and fair elections are a catalyst for the reforms journey.(election remained unannounced for over ?6 months)While there was broad consensus that there was a chance of further delays to the national elections, the recent announcement?that they will be held on February 8, 2024, was seen as a positive sign. Participants agreed that without free and fair elections,
• The political spectacle that has engulfed Pakistan is likely to continue. In addition, it is important for the military to be seen simply as a provider of security and to extract itself from both overt and covert electoral interference.?
• So long as the ongoing political instability remains, Pakistan is economic and foreign policy will remain chaotic. For Pakistan to begin a long and tortuous journey toward economic recovery and sustainable, inclusive growth, & national ?elections, need to be held on fresh date.
• Elections should then be followed by a transparent, consensus-driven process that devolves power to the grassroots level through functional local governments. Increasing political competition at the grassroots level is not only a constitutional duty, but also a critical mechanism through which the daily needs of citizens can be met. In addition, this devolution of power can help improve local resource mobilization while also strengthening the ability of constituents to hold their political leaders accountable for their performance.
• Macroeconomic struggles are a symptom, not the disease.?A consistent view is that Pakistan’s human capital challenges, especially those confronted by Pakistani women, are a major driver of economic instability. Childhood stunting and poor educational investments have led to major drags on economic growth.
• In addition, as the planet becomes warmer, Pakistan will face an intensified need to cool and provide heat-resilient infrastructure to vulnerable communities. Environmental degradation is also likely to further exacerbate human capital issues, especially those related to public health and productivity.?
• Commercial frictions in the market, largely due to a state apparatus which refuses to get out of the way, distort the economy. Therefore, Pakistan must follow a two-pronged plan to deal with its crises: radically improve educational and public health services while pushing through market reforms that eliminate significant parts of an interventionist and overly burdensome bureaucratic and regulatory system. Such reforms would make long-term investments that grow productivity while providing the space that helps unleash the spirits of entrepreneurship and innovation.
• Growing geopolitical uncertainty should concern Pakistani elites.?With its domestic political system in a state of perpetual crisis, Pakistan can ill afford additional escalation in regional and global tensions.
• The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an example of how seismic geopolitical events can unleash political and economic crises in a country geographically far away, such as Pakistan.
• The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict is inflaming emotions across the world, especially in Muslim-majority countries. The longer this conflict continues, the more likely a scenario that a split between elites who execute foreign policy and ordinary citizens occurs.This development is likely to trigger popular anger targeting elites, especially in a situation where citizens believe the government does not have a credible mandate to govern.
• Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s history of populism and his sustained imprisonment may add fuel to the fire.
• In addition, a broadening of the Israel-Hamas conflict can also increase economic shocks due to rising energy prices, unleashing a new wave of inflation. This growing economic pain would likely further inflame the public, creating additional instability in the country.
• Policymakers must also recognize that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries are looking to make investments in Pakistani assets, but materializing these investments requires interlocutors on the Pakistani side that are able to understand and complete basic financial transactions. At this point, Pakistan’s public sector is severely lacking the capacity to realize this opportunity.
• Resource misallocations create headwinds for economic prosperity.?With a burgeoning fiscal deficit that is being financed through domestic borrowing, Pakistan must get its financial house in order. Doing so requires policy changes in the way the state both collects and spends resources. Existing leakages can be plugged by scaling back the magnitude of untargeted subsidies, while moving resources toward targeted, direct transfers to citizens. This can be done by expanding access via zero-balance bank accounts, which receive government benefits ranging from poverty alleviation funds to subsidies for fertilizer and liquefied petroleum gas cylinders. These direct transfers would improve living conditions for the most marginalized citizens in an efficient way, freeing up resources while improving human development outcomes.
• The incentive structure for investment must be altered through tax policy to attract capital flows in productivity-enhancing sectors where the country has a comparative advantage.
• The government must create a more enabling environment for productivity-enhancing sectors while also changing the tax code to reduce flows of capital to dead assets, such as vacant real estate. In addition, the startup ecosystem which includes non-tech startups—should be encouraged to grow by changing the regulatory framework governing venture capital. In addition, investments should be made in public transport infrastructure, as it is an efficient mode of urban transportation that will help curtail the growing costs of imported energy.
• It is important to maintain focus on the human development elements of long-term productivity growth. Nutrition, clean water, and energy access inequities, for example, lead to issues related to stunting across Pakistan. Without investing resources to solve these human development challenges, resources dedicated toward boosting certain sectors will always lead to suboptimal outcomes. As a result, improving both service delivery and allocation of resources focused on improving human development across the country is vital for long-term economic success.
• The ongoing convergence of technologies is a leapfrog opportunity.?Artificial intelligence, battery storage, 3D manufacturing, and electric mobility are just some of the transformative technologies radically changing the world. As these technologies mature, new business models, and by extension economic centers of power, are likely to emerge. While advanced economies such as the United States and China are competing at the cutting edge of many technology trends, other countries such as Turkey and Estonia are also showing prowess.?
• Countries such as Pakistan can take advantage of these converging technologies by improving their human capital quality in the long run and providing greater backing to next-generation ventures. This can be done through a public-private partnership model, setting up a sovereign innovation fund that partners with other leading global investors. By backing a domestic innovation ecosystem, Pakistan can begin to create competitiveness in future-oriented sectors that will have global relevance. Sustained bets on next-generation innovative companies are necessary to create wealth within the country.
• The climate threat requires a long-term whole-of-nation approach.?The 2022 floods are evidence that Pakistan is ground zero for extreme weather events in an era of climate disaster. Dealing with this threat requires a fundamental overhaul in how the country develops and executes policies, including those related to water management, the power sector, and agriculture. Inefficient allocations of resources, such as subsidies for tube wells, should be rechanneled toward building climate-resilient infrastructure on farms. This can include investments for better seeds, improved soil management, and drip irrigation to improve agricultural productivity.
• Investments that expand access to renewable energy—for example, through decentralized solar grids—should also be encouraged. Creative mechanisms to finance rooftop solar can also expand financial inclusion, particularly in rural Pakistan. Finally, doing away with the single-buyer model in the power sector can help eliminate current power sector inefficiencies that have restricted investments and created a burgeoning debt across the entire energy ecosystem.
• Finally, Pakistani policymakers must pursue these policies in a way that furthers climate, economic, and environmental justice, as this is critical to not only building resiliency across millions of households, but also improving overall human development in the country.