Why Economists Need Marketers!
Unintended consequences alert! The NY Times published an article today that advocates the government pay people $1,000 to get vaccinated for COVID 19 once we have approved vaccines. The strategy, suggested by Robert E. Litan of the Brookings Institution, mathematically lays out the challenges to achieving herd immunity (regardless of who is elected). Given these shortfalls, he predicts that we will need about $275B for patient incentives to achieve the herd immunity goal.
While I do not question whether cash incentives can drive behavior, I am equally sure that, in today’s America, this approach could result in disastrous unintended consequences. Remember, we still debate whether eggs are good or bad for you.
Further, even before Astra-Zeneca paused their COVID vaccine trial, polls indicated that over 1/3 of Americans were not going to get vaccinated. Fear is a deterrent to action and the government's willingness to pay people could have the effect of increasing the perception that the vaccine is not entirely safe and, therefore impede adoption.
Even without the fear factor, as Litan himself notes, the incentive will likely be more effective with lower-income households, which are disproportionately Latinx and Black. In effect, we will be paying POC to be the early adopters.
What could go wrong?
“Minority families used as guinea pigs in government vaccine gamble!”
“Government willing to pay poorest Americans $1,000 to get risk their lives on new vaccine.”
“Trump says they will pay. Bills China $275B for COVID incentives.”
Without the right messaging and programming, in this case, a naked cash incentive is a disaster waiting to happen.
Instead, let’s tuck the incentive inside a smarter, comprehensive program that energizes individuals but radically alters the perception of the vaccine’s safety.
I would offer the following plan:
Day 1 - Live broadcast of the vaccine developer’s leadership team getting their shots as they jump into electric cars headed for DC. Live tweets, Instagram posts, and FB stories from the journey.
Day 2 - All Major network and social platforms broadcast “Sticking up for America’s Health,” a live concert and mandatory vaccination of every member of all three branches of government. Live remote broadcasts from Congress, the White House, and the Supreme Court.
Day 3 - Charli D’Amelio and Addison Rae vaccinate each other on Tik-Tok while announcing $1000 for every American who gets vaccinated the moment we reach the country’s 80% vaccination mark (I stole that from Litan). Simultaneously, Starbuck’s launches the Fauciccino, a delicious frozen drink served in an oversized needleless syringe.
We achieve herd immunity in 10 days.
All kidding aside, an under-used vaccine will continue to put our health and economy at risk. There needs to be a comprehensive strategy to mobilize once vaccines are available.
Agree?
As a follow-up to Pfizer's announcement today, I heard two great things that should help participation. First, 90% efficacy will drive those who would have stayed in the sidelines at 50%. Second Albert Bourla, Pfizer's CEO, wants to be at the head of the lone which should help dispel some of the skepticism around safety.
In addition to great marketers, experienced folks from the #MSW and #MPH communities have the skills to help overcome some of the trust barriers. Who's building the multi-disciplinary dream team?
President & CEO -- The Revs Institute & Companies
4 年Totally agree Steven -- perhaps the troubling part of all of this to me is the reasoning behind individuals reluctance to take the vaccine -- a fundamental lack of trust. As a society we seem to be losing it quickly -- and I fear no amount of financial "incentive" is going to be able to fix that. We need leaders that can restore our "emotional" incentives -- which ultimately work far better anyways....
Director of Sales at ASO Worldwide
4 年Agree!! How do we make the horse drink the water? Hope big pharma producing these vaccines are having their marketing branches engage now to develop a plan. We certainly can’t expect the government to do that!