Why do you want me to think? Stop punishing me!

If you have been alive for more than 1 year, it is no doubt that you have been shocked by yourself and your fellow human beings many atimes. You have been disturbed by what I call, ‘cognitive gaps.’ According to mybrainwire a cognitive gap is the difference between and individual’s current cognitive capacity and their potential cognitive capacity. What is even more frustrating is how people, including ourselves at times, get mad when we are told explicitly or by implication to think. It is like we say, “Why do you want me to think? Stop punishing me!”?

Below are some of the cognitive errors I have read about and identified first hand over my years of marketing practice in the Eastern African business world:

1.The Law of Small Numbers?

How many times have you heard someone say, “My friends like hotel X. Hotel X must be the most profitable hotel in town right now.” Well this is a thinking error called, ‘The law of small numbers’ effect. You will be shocked to learn that your friends form 0.0001 percent of the population in town and that by going to that hotel, they add not much value. Infact, the hotel is running at a loss. Another example; Mark Zuckberg did not go to school. Steve Jobs did not either. It must follow then, that education is not important! You do not need to be educated to become a billionaire. According to fortune , about seven out of 10 billionaires—71.1%—around the world had at least a bachelor's degree in 2015. So what are your chances of becoming a billionaire without a college degree? Lower of course, but we choose to believe otherwise. Interesting humans!

2. Swimmer’s body illusion?

“I will go to Harvard and become bright!” That statement is a result of the swimmer’s body illusion. It is a question of, ‘what makes the people who study at Harvard bright? Is it that they went there bright or is it that Harvard makes people bright?’ The actual answer is that bright people go to Harvard, not vice versa. Harvard would not accept you if you were not bright.

3. Halo Effect

While at this, I have a question. What makes people fall in ‘love’? Is it a gut feeling, butterflies in the stomach or you just wake up and realise you are in love? Aron, et al. 1989 argue that ‘falling in love’ is as a result of similarity (This includes similarity of people’s beliefs and, to a lesser extent, similarity of personality traits and ways of thinking), propinquity (This includes familiarity with the other, which can be caused by spending time together, living near each other, thinking about the other, or anticipating interaction with the other), desirable characteristics: This general attraction attribute is particularly focused on an outer physical appearance that is found desirable and, to a lesser extent, on desirable personality traits and reciprocal liking (When the other person is attracted to you or likes you, that can increase your own liking.) Is it possible to fall in love within seconds then? I’d argue that it is not, but honestly, how many times have we done it? You meet someone, even in a business setting up and immediately think, “this must be the right fit for the job!” I am sorry to burst your bubble but that is the halo effect at play. And as the millennials say, “it will end in premium tears!” Take your time. Do not be fooled by first appearances.

4. Confirmation bias?

Generally as human beings, we seek in the physical world what we have already in our minds. Let us take a scenario. Let us say, you have esteem issues. You think the world is coming at you. Your boss gets into the office one day and stares at you for 6 seconds straight. Then he calls you to his office. When you get in, you are visibly shaken. You start crying, asking him, “why does it always have to be me? You people hate me.” He had not said a word. He actually wanted to congratulate and promote you. And that is an episode of ‘how to get fired 101’.

5. Correlation vs causation

“Did you know that 100% of people who drink water die?” We should go to the streets and protest. We will not drink water anymore. That is correlation vs causation. The first part of the argument is true, but the second one, well, that is just downright stupid!

How to prevent yourself from the above cognitive biases:

1. Just think! The question then is, “how do I think?” It is simple; ask questions. As Steve Jobs said, “stay hungry, stay foolish.”?
2. Think deeper.?
3. Refer to number one and two above.

Books on the cognitive errors we make:

Thinking, Fast and Slow Paperback – April 2, 2013 by Daniel Kahneman?

The Art of Thinking Clearly Paperback – May 6, 2014 by Rolf Dobelli?

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