Why do we believe stuff?

"Conspiracy theories are caused by the absence of facts, and humans damaged by a world that offers no explanations or apologies. Filled with emotions we substitute the painful reality with our irrational and creative mind." GeorgeM

This Week In The Business Brief

The Market

The market this week had a significant rebound! The results in this image shows Friday's lift. The DJIA is still behind its December 2021 high of 38,700 by 15.1%. Even Netflix might be breathing a little easier today. However the market is supposedly ahead of the economy by 6-12 months, depending on who you follow. Or is this another bear market rally with another downward trend coming? It's possible because inflation is still high. There is no indication interest rates will stop rising and the war in Ukraine rages on. Recoveries although are never smooth, but a recovery will begin as we get inflation inline. The challenge ahead is as it has always been, to stay ahead of consumers and bet on the right side of the economic storm. I believe that discount stores are in a great position, they planned through the pandemic to add stores. It wasn't really that hard to see that their demand will grow. I for one believe very strongly that the future of retail is to learn how to sell and serve to those 50-60% of consumers that live pay check to pay check. And if you can get that right, you are accomplishing two things. One helping this part of the consumer economy improve its own financial houses, and second grow sales and profits in a new reality of middle class.

Tech Sector

亚马逊 : This behemoth of a company sent a strong warning bell globally. The message? Things are about to get slower. Even though the companies financials are healthy, shareholders sold off. Read more It is my view that Amazon and others who are responding to this market effectively are confronting the issue head on, and will likely have responses to capture more share as it becomes more scarce. And it will impact other retailers negatively. Why? Because the likes of 沃尔玛 塔吉特百货 Loblaw Companies Limited and Canadian Tire Corporation to name a few will not sit back and hope for the best.

Meta: Does Zuckerberg's ship have a leak? Apparently, bleeding advertising revenue. Meta is a vision as is the Metaverse. The price to get there first might be too much for anyone company. Platforms are the key and the public is supposedly anxiously awaiting. I believe that speculators and futurists of which there are a growing number, on the future of the metaverse, are predicting well ahead of what will is currently possible. For that reason if Meta and others sway too much off course they could lose sight of both dreams. Read More

Twitter : Elon Musk is in the drivers seat with the double TT (Tesla and Twitter). 通用汽车 has temporarily suspended advertising on Twitter. Will others follow? Or do they risk alienating customers? Concerns about hate speech are abundant. Or is it concerns that the number one producer of EV's now also owns a media channel? Of course the question most of us are asking will genius prevail or mayhem emerge on social media? Read More

Retailing

I had the distinct pleasure of presenting to The Philippines Retail Association members. It was an honour to do so. I started off my keynote presentation with a focus on the year 2030. Because the beginning of this upcoming decade will usher in thousands of new business models, technology, new channels to sell through and even economic challenges. And the leadership qualities and experience needed to deliver the best in your organization is key to business longevity.

My message was very clear. Retailers of the future need to develop their skills at being Street Smart, Technology Driven, Customer Obsessed and pursue Bold Innovation. I am on a mission to create business longevity with all businesses and especially the retail sector. Far too many have failed and they have done so because they were unprepared in their response to a changing world. My research into businesses that have lasted for hundreds of years and a few into the thousands, has aided me in building a very structured and disciplined path for retailers to follow.

Of the many messages that resonated with the guests. Innovators create trends, they don't chase them, that hit home with everyone! As it should with anyone serving the public. In addition I believe marketing departments need a new label, Intelligence Officers. After all isn't data a king maker?

Conspiracy Theories - Why do we believe stuff?

The craziest communication blunder that amazes me is we have allowed so many conspiracy theories to exist. Of course we all know that the government is hiding facts about alien visitations. Right? Apparently, this is one of the longest living and widely held conspiracy theories and a good 50% of us believe it. But what drives these theories? I am beginning to wonder if even voter apathy isn't really driven by a widely held belief that your vote won't change anything because the elite rule the world. More on that another day. Take a read of this interesting survey on Canadians and their beliefs. Read More Why do we fall into this trap? I really do believe that the absence of facts and sometimes government responses, which tend to be incomplete or wayward, have a way of adding fuel to the fire and allow for misinformation to take root. It is a very unhealthy situation because even the most educated can get caught in these traps. Add in questionable news sources with their version of the facts and you dig an even deeper hole. Of course, I bet someone will believe that I wrote this to dismiss their beliefs. Which I am not. I just question why are we allowing the need for the truth to be embellished by the fringe? Is this how we fulfill our intellectual curiosity? And is the other-side of the story more compelling and believable than the truth? Do we need the conspiracy to balance our thoughts and judgements? There are many scientists being paid to discover alien life in the universe. Again the fact that we are researching this adds to the question, doubt or hope, depending on which side of the issue you stand on. If there are intelligent aliens, perhaps they will settle this for us. And then again as Stephen Hawking said in 2010 in his example of Columbus' expedition to the Americas to describe what could happen if an advanced civilisation gets word of our existence,?saying that initial meeting?"didn't turn out so well". More fuel to the fire! Happy Halloween!!

Personal Log: Futurist or Visionary

Is there a difference between a futurist and a visionary? Yes there is! With enough interest in what's new about the world and how it is evolving you could become a futurist. Clearly you need to be very knowledgeable about the subject matter you are pursuing. However, a futurist to me isn't about identifying changes in technology and society driven by others. It is identifying how these changes will impact the world. A visionary for me is someone who creates the future internally within an organization. That's why this week I answered this question by the host of the Philippines Retail Association as I did. What is the difference between the two. My response? "Futurists predict the future, visionaries create the future, transforming or evolving their organizations to next level of competition before anyone else recognizes it." I also believe that bold innovation falls into the same category as visionary. Either way if you own or lead a business 'visionary' is the way to go, by all means talk to the futurists listen to their insights. At the end of the day it is your vision and that of your organization's to decide the right direction. Visionaries are bold innovators and they define find business longevity not futurists.

Thanks for reading this weeks issue of The Business Brief. Your likes and comments are very much appreciated. If you don't want to comment on LinkedIn and want to ask me any questions directly. Send me an email at [email protected] in the subject line type The Business Brief.

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