Why do optimists die first? The Stockdale Paradox.

Starting out is exciting. Starting a new job, business, relationship or simply - a new chapter. It's difficult to imagine that anyone would be pessimistic about a new chapter. A new chapter is about positive emotions and hoping for the best, period!

But then the reality comes, or "brutal facts" if you will. For a freelancer, aspiring founder or just someone starting a business, the typical "brutal facts" are something like this: they don't respond to your invitations, they don't write back to your emails, they cancel the meetings, they don't write back after the meatings, etc.

But then, it turns out that it is your mindset, the way you deal with those "brutal facts" that can either kill you or save you. The Stockdale Paradox is a concept developed by Jim Collins in his iconic "Good to Great" in which he dissects the unique qualities that made a few good companies great. The book gives an account of that and why only 11 out of 1 435 companies studied actually achieved that. One of key elements of that succes was attributed to its leadership ability to approach hardships and setbacks without losing faith in the end success. The ability Collins called "The Stockdale Paradox":

You must maintain unwavering faith that you can and will prevail in the end, regardless of the difficulties, and at the same time, have the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be. (source: Jim Collins - Concepts)

James "Jim" Stockdale was an American Vice-admiral who spent eight years in captivity (1965-1973) during the Vietnam War. He was the highest ranking prisoner of war of the infamous "Hanoi Hilton" (Hoa Lo) prison. During his time there, he was one of the primary organizer of the prisoner resistance, tortured, beaten and as a result - permanently disabled. Despite all those horrors he endured and was finally released.

After the military career, Stockdale joined Hoover Institution at Stanford University where he focused mostly on the philosophy of Stoicism which he attributed to his survival in prison. When talking to Jim Collins about the factors that enabled him to endure his eight-year long ordeal he replied:

I never lost faith in the end of the story. I?never doubted not only that I would get out, but also that I would prevail in the end and turn the experience into the defining event of my life, which, in retrospect, I would not?trade. (source: Jim Collins - Concepts)

As Collins put it in his book, the Stockdale Paradox explains the crucial role of a mindset in enduring hardships, setbacks, headwinds, etc. Naturally "Good to Great" it's not a book about surviving the prisoners' camp. It's about how only a few companies out of tens of hundreds which he studied, achieved the "Greatness" by being able to outperform their market by many years in a row. Collins gives the following explanation of the nature of leaders' mindset in those companies:

In every case, the management team responded with a powerful psychological duality. On the one hand, they stoically accepted the brutal facts of reality. On the other hand, they maintained an unwavering faith in the endgame, and a commitment to prevail as a great company despite the brutal facts. (source: Jim Collins - Concepts)

Ok, so who is most likely to not making it? Who is most likely to give up faith and succumb to the hard reality? Collins asked Stockdale this question, but his answer very simple - the optimists.

Oh, they (the optimists) were the ones who said, ‘We’re going to be out by Christmas.’ And Christmas would come, and Christmas would go. Then they’d say, ‘We’re going to be out by Easter.’ And Easter would come, and Easter would go. And then Thanksgiving, and then it would be Christmas again. And they died of a broken?heart. (source: Jim Collins - Concepts)

So what do I, as freelance business consultant, make out of Stockdale's and Collins' lessons?

1. Do not expect the world at your feet, no one waited for you to start doing what you're doing.
2. Get used to rejection, indifference, and disappointments. You will get that a lot and most of the time.
3. The only source of your successes and failures is you - the way you prepare, decisions you make, time you spend. All of that is under your control.
4. With clear vision, cleat "why?" answered and the right people to help:

You may not be getting there by Christmas, but you are going to get there!