Why do leaders overcorrect?

Strange that overcorrection still happen, when the prescription to avoid it is pretty standard:

1. Analyse root cause (something as simple as Toyota's 5 Why’s could work here)
2. Gradual implementation
3. Data-driven decision making (and make sure the data's clean)
4. Seek diverse perspective

Working theories on why Leaders overcorrect include:

1. They don't care about impacted people ← not true, but makes for fun gossip
2. It's “performative correction” done in large part to appease key stakeholders's expectations ← maybe. to some degree
3. They're dumb ← no, but I understand you're upset
4. FOMO ← in some circles maybe true (I'm looking at you Early Stage VCs), but usually no
5. Expert blindness ← now this one is interesting

So why does it still happen? My best guess is that it's a combination of 2 factors:

1. Delayed feedback loop
2. Heuristic dependence

Delayed Feedback Loop

At an organizational level, the negative impact of an overcorrecting policy/decision comes after the positive impact is felt. By that time, Leadership might already be looking elsewhere.

Impact of overcorrection’s usually along the lines of:

1. Loss of efficiency
2. Employee demotivation
3. Customer/partner dissatisfaction
4. Damage to company culture
5. Reduced innovation

All scary stuff, but by the time they're measured and reported up, amnesia usually already had set in.

Imagine if you're trying to lose a few kg. You chop off your right leg. You get on the scale. You're happy that you've lost weight. You hop around everywhere. And a few weeks later, you're wondering why your shoes on the left side are all worn out, but the ones on the right side are all well preserved.

Kinda ridiculous, but at an org level, kinda the norm.

Heuristic Dependence

The world's a complex place. If you analyze everything before you make every decision, you end up not making any decisions. Instead, our brains solve things once or twice, create a rule around it, and when it sees a similar problem, it applies the rule (heuristic) and then uses the rule to solve it.?

It saves time. It saves energy. And it works most of the time.?

Until it doesn't.

They're “rules” after all. They're shortcuts. Can't be right all the time.

The thing is, some internal heuristics are so powerful that they blind us to the facts.?

They're so powerful that even if we're presented with a black swan right in front of our eyes, we'd say “but that's not really a swan though”.

They’re even more dangerously powerful if we're known to be experts in our field, to the point that we'd scoff at ideas that run counter to these heuristics.

So, if we're a Leader, how do we avoid overcorrection??

I like using these 2 phrases as a reminder:

1. Genchi Genbutsu

Yeah, back to the classic Toyota Way. Genchi Genbutsu literal translation is “real location, real thing”.?

Before making any major decisions, spend time on the production floor. Dashboards can only tell you so much.?

Genba, Genbutsu, Genjitsu -- considering I wrote a whole ass book about the application of this to marketing and even launched a company around it… yes, I feel strongly about this.?

If you lead anything people-powered, you have to do this.?

If you lead anything people-powered AND your business is in Asia, you really have to do this.

2. das Kind mit dem Bade ausschütten

Yes, you're right. That doesn’t sound Japanese. That's German. And this one is a reminder of what NOT to do.?

The earliest print of the phrase das Kind mit dem Bade ausschütten was in 1512's Narrenbeschw?rung (Appeal to Fools). Translated, it's the idiomatic phrase of “throw the baby out with the bathwater”.

Even from Majapahit Era we've been warned to not throw out the good with the bad.?

Though I guess we now know, it wasn't the Fools that needed appealing to. It was CEOs, investors, and Leaders of The Free World.