Why did we lock down at all?

We didn't lock down because of the amount of dead people or the amount of sick people so why did we lock down the entire world at all?

Partly because we weren't prepared but most importantly because we were fragile. We couldn't afford to survive and couldn't afford "the everything bubble" with its accumulated tail risks:

The short term solution to all of this is to buy stocks, bonds and pay bailouts from central bank printed currencies and government bonds, which is paid by the working and middle class. If not in taxes, then in inflated asset prices which makes our money worthless. You've seen and heard it before: just like 2008.

So we are standing in a forest fire: we can either let the fire roar and protect what is most important, which is a few large trees that sustain important ecosystems of smaller biological plants, mushrooms, animals, insects and bacteria. Otherwise we can protect the oldest trees, hope that these will not fall in the next storm and let everything else burn. After the fire there will be no sunlight at the bottom of the forest for new trees to grow.

Worst case scenario is that all of these bubbles are propped up and we enter a deflationary economy similar to Japan after their crisis in the 80's, which does not make place for new companies to flourish and ensure the survival of dysfunctional monopolies and corporations sponsored by government's fiscal stimulus. Essentially a mix between Judge Dredd and Bladerunner.

Best case scenario is that as many bubbles pop ASAP to make way for restructuring and nationalization of the most healthy companies and assets - to avoid hostile takeovers from China and OPEC along with their political agendas that almost succeeded in 2008. If this restructuring and nationalization is successfully executed, it could make way for new companies (instead of reviving zombie corporations) and a decade of sustainable and resilient growth in each country that can reestablish trade and supply chains after establishing self-sufficient independence from the fragility of global entanglement.

Obviously this isn't over and no one wishes people dead so lock down was the right choice and most politicians reacted to the best of their capabilities under the circumstances. Compared to any other cause of death, the amount of Covid casualties is quite minuscule even within the time frame we have covered so far, so I am writing this disclaimer because we now live in a world where civil discourse is scarce.

Sources: Global Macro Investor and a bunch of the smartest people in macro economics and finance.