Why Did Corona-Virus Lock-down Strategy Fail?

Background

Coronaviruses are a cluster of viruses that may cause infections like the common cold, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

The virus is now recognised as the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).

The disease it causes is called coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

In 2019, a new coronavirus was shown to be the source of a disease outbreak that started in China.

The most recent evidence suggests that the COVID-19 originated in a Wuhan lab and its release occurred accidentally and not intentionally. (1)

In March 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the COVID-19 outbreak a pandemic.

Symptoms, Causes, Diagnosis and Treatment of COVID-19

The Mayo Clinic provides an excellent outline of the symptoms, causes, diagnosis and treatment of Covid-19.(2)

Additional recommendations for preventing and treating the disease can be obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) websites.

Contrasting the Management of COVID-19 with Previous Epidemics

In the United States From 12 April 2009 to 10 April 2010, there was an estimated 60.8 million cases of H1N1 swine flu. (3)

However, current cases of Coronavirus in the US are only 1,237,633 or just 2.03 % of H1N1 cases.

Most importantly, there was no lock-down undertaken during the H1N1 epidemic in the US nor Australia.

Additionally, Australian influenza on average causes 1,500 to 3,000 deaths, about 18,000 hospitalisations and 300,000 GP consultations each year. (4) https://lnkd.in/guyWTrj

Interestingly, the Australian coronavirus deaths are only 3.2-6.4% of annual influenza deaths.

Again, no lockdown measures were undertaken during all previous influenza outbreaks despite a death rate 15.4-30.9 times greater than for Covid-19.

The current Coronavirus Australian death rate is only 1.41% compared to 6.92% worldwide.       

Moreover, the latest Australian data indicates there were only 26 new cases of Coronavirus as of the last update on COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC Last updated: May 06, 2020, 04:06 GMT.

Worldwide Initiation of Lockdown Strategy to Combat Coronavirus

To combat the Covid-19-outbreak, a new strategy was initiated to help stop the spread of the coronavirus worldwide.

The hypothesis was that a lockdown of all areas where people congregate may help to stop the spread of the Covid-19 virus and consequently reduce the mortality and morbidity of this disease worldwide.

If this hypothesis were correct, we would see a substantial reduction in new infection rates of Covid-19 along with a likely improvement in the mortality and morbidity data as well after the implementation of a worldwide lock-down.

The Scientific Evidence with Analysis of Covid-19 Infection Rates and Mortality Data 

In the United States, 8 states never had a full lock-down in place and they could be contrasted with the other 42 states that did have a full lock-down in place to combat the Coronavirus epidemic.

These 8 states were Arkansas, Iowa, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah and Wyoming.

While the average death rate per 1 million people in the US is 218, all these 8 states were substantially below this figure with the highest number being Iowa with just 66 cases today.

Furthermore, Tucker Carlson reported that Wilfred Reilly ran a linear regression model that enabled him to measure the influence of one variable on another with all other factors that might be relevant held constant.

The variables used for each state included: population, population density, median income, median age, diversity (measured as the percentage of minorities in a population), and the state’s Covid-19 response strategy (0 = lockdown, 1 = social distancing).

The analysis established that there was no significant difference in Covid-19 case outcomes between the 8 US states that never had a full lock-down was compared to the other 42 states that did have a lock-down in place. (5,6)

Also, Sweden never had a lock-down policy in place and allowed restaurants to remain open.

This enables it to be an ideal comparator to evaluate how other countries fared that did have a full lock-down in place.

Sweden currently has 2,299 coronavirus cases per 1 million people.

If the lock-down strategy is beneficial then we should have fewer cases of infection in these countries that had an extremely strict lock-down protocol in place.

However, the evidence is that in countries like the USA, Spain, Italy, France, and the UK, there were much higher cases of coronavirus infections in these countries than found in Sweden.

The countries US(+162%),Spain( +233%),Italy ( +153%),UK ( +124%) and France ( +113%) all clearly provide conclusive evidence regarding a substantial increase in Coronavirus infections in these countries that had a lockdown in place instead of a reduction.(7)

Lockdowns did not stop the spread of the Covid virus based on this retrospective research.

This indicates there was no benefit from having a lockdown.

A similar pattern emerges when death rates were examined.

When compared to Sweden, Spain ( + 193%),Italy (+171%),UK ( +153%) and France ( +138%) all had much higher deaths per million people.

Only the US (77%) had a lower death rate when compared to Sweden.

Possible factors that may contribute to this favourable result in the US may include an earlier diagnosis of patients when the illness was less severe and different treatment options being utilized that resulted in a better prognosis for the patient.

What Learnings can we Apply to Future Pandemics?

Taiwan very rapidly suspended flights from China and this dramatically reduced their exposure to the virus.

Along with early use of temperature checks for passengers arriving from overseas flights, this greatly reduced infection rates to only 18 per million and a death rate of just 0.3 per million.

Retrospective data established that lockdowns were not effective in reducing the spread of the Coronavirus and that a 2-metre social distancing may provide the same benefit without great disruptions to the whole world economy.

The WHO should consider a prospective trial to test this hypothesis in a future pandemic.

One treatment arm to be undertaken by most countries of the world that would practice social distancing of 2 metres.

The other much smaller treatment arm being randomized to practice 2 metres social distancing along with a full lockdown like we just experienced during the current Covid-19 pandemic.

I suspect that unlike Al Gore’s previous inconvenient truth, results from this study will provide a real inconvenient truth regarding the benefits of having a full lock-down strategy when dealing with future pandemics.

References

1)     Steve Watson. Two Separates Reports Confirm “Most Intel Agencies” in US Believe Coronavirus came from a Wuhan Lab.Infowars.com 4 May 2020. https://www.infowars.com/two-separate-reports-confirm-most-intel-agencies-in-us-believe-coronavirus-came-from-wuhan-lab/

2)     Mayo Clinic. Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).? 1998-2020 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research (MFMER). All rights reserved.

3)     Shrestha SS, Swerdlow DL, Borse RH, Prabhu VS, Finelli L, Atkins CY, Owusu-Edusei K, Bell B, Mead PS, Biggerstaff M, Brammer L, Davidson H, Jernigan D, Jhung MA, Kamimoto LA, Merlin TL, Nowell M, Redd SC, Reed C, Schuchat A, Meltzer MI. Estimating the burden of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) in the United States (April 2009-April 2010). Clin Infect Dis. 2011 Jan 1;52 Suppl 1:S75-82. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciq012.

4)     Influenza Fast Facts. Influenza Specialist Group.25 March 2020. https://www.isg.org.au/index.php/clinical-information/influenza-fast-facts-/

5)     Tucker Carlson. Tucker: Are coronavirus lockdowns working? FOX NEWS.23 April 2020. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuuA0azQRGQ&feature=youtu.be

6)     Tucker: Big Tech censors dissent over coronavirus lockdowns. April 29, 2020, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sPrbGU0Wyh4

7)     COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC. Last updated: May 06, 2020, 04:06 GMT. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/