Why COP28 is “the most important COP” since the Paris Agreement
What to expect at COP28, the UN climate conference taking place in December in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).
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On 30 November, some 75,000 delegates including politicians, ministers, representatives from civil society, the private sector, international organisations and media organisations (including Energy Monitor) will descend on Expo City Dubai for what is expected to be the largest COP ever. Leaders including Pope Francis and King Charles III are set to attend (although reportedly, US President Joe Biden will not). Why is COP28 the most important COP since Paris in 2015?
In many ways, the 28th annual UN climate conference in Dubai, (literally ‘Conference of the Parties’), is expected to be similar to what we have seen before. Talks will largely focus on how to honour the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding agreement to limit global warming to at least below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and ideally 1.5°C, which has been signed by 195 parties.??
For the past few years, ever since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a report in 2018 warning that the difference between 1.5°C and 2°C is significant, parties have focused on the more ambitious target of 1.5°C, which would require global emissions to reach ‘net zero’ by 2050.?
To be on track for net zero 2050, the IPCC has said that emissions will have to drop 45% compared with 2010 levels by 2030. However, current trends have analysts predicting record emissions in 2023, a year in which a series of emissions and extreme weather records have been broken.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also warned this year that the world is likely to experience at least one year where the global average surface temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels over the next five years. Meanwhile, the recent UN Production Gap report warned that governments are currently planning to produce 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C.?
Governments are planning to produce 110% more fossil fuels in 2030 than is consistent with?1.5°C
2023 projections for global fossil fuel extraction this decade (GtCO2eq/yr)
COP hosts are always expected to impose “something of their own agenda” on proceedings, says Alex Scott from the think tank E3G. This year, that includes new initiatives to tackle the impacts of climate change on health, improve access to finance for fragile and conflict-affected states, as well as a big push for food system transformations.?
By the second week of COP28, all eyes will be on the UN negotiations, which are set to result in an agreement that will update climate ambition and policy for the year ahead. All 198 countries who are party to the UNFCCC will have to sign up to the final cover text for the negotiated outcome to be adopted.?
Why COP28 matters: The Global Stocktake
There is one major difference in this year’s COP agenda, however, which has led the Stockholm Environment Institute’s (SEI) Richard Klein to label it “the most important COP since the Paris Agreement” in a recent pre-COP28 briefing hosted by SEI.?
That difference is the conclusion of the first Global Stocktake (GS), a process outlined in the Paris Agreement that is the main mechanism through which progress on climate action is assessed. The GS comprises three stages, starting with the gathering and synthesising of information on climate change and climate action from governments, which began at COP26 in Glasgow. This is followed by an analysis of progress made in implementing the Paris Agreement (which resulted in a synthesis report released in September); the third stage will take place at COP28, where findings will be discussed and an appropriate policy response will be agreed upon.
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The synthesis report details how the world remains well off track from meeting the ambitions of the Paris Agreement, calling for “system transformation” on “all fronts”. However, there is hope still , with “actionable solutions” to combat global warming including clean technologies that can be rapidly deployed and action that can be taken to unlock trillions of dollars in investment.?
The report also details division (“Some Parties… note with concern that some developed countries whose emissions already peaked decades ago, commit to achieving net zero GHG emissions only by 2050”), and calls for a significant boost to adaptation efforts (“Most observed adaptation efforts are fragmented, incremental, sector-specific and unequally distributed across regions”).
After 30 years of UN climate conferences, emissions are still rising
Global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in Gt, alongside UN climate conferences, 1990–2021
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“This is the most important session of the Conference of the Parties since Paris in 2015, because the outcome of the Global Stocktake will basically set the agenda for the next five or 10 years of climate discussions,” says Richard Klein. “What we have seen from the stocktake so far is a mixed bag: We are moving in the right direction, but not nearly fast enough.”?
E3G’s Scott adds that the stocktake is “the next stage in the building of the Paris Agreement architecture, which is the global governance that we have had on climate change since 2015”.?
“The policy outcome of the stocktake is probably not going to land at this COP, but what we will get is a political direction on where countries want to go, given what we know right now,” she adds.?
Loss and damage
Beyond the Global Stocktake, another key task for negotiators is getting a new loss and damage fund up and running. This fund was arguably the main legacy of COP27, and promises to compensate developing economies that are least responsible for climate change for climate impacts.
Ahead of COP28, negotiators reached agreement on a framework for the fund, with the World Bank set to host it on an interim basis for four years. Developing countries have already expressed disappointment that there has been no immediate capitalisation of the fund, and no clear language making rich countries liable for financial losses related to climate change-induced extreme weather events.?
While the framework “delivered on its mandate”, it was “the furthest thing imaginable from a success”, said Brandon Wu, director of policy and campaigns at NGO ActionAid USA.?
COP28 will be crucial in determining what the fund will look like, and how it will operate in practice. Loss and damage is set to feature some of the most contested negotiations – and should they fail, bad blood may hinder other areas of COP28 discussion.
“There is a lot left to be decided on loss and damage at COP28, and there is no guarantee that a final decision will be reached”, E3G’s Scott adds.?
Antony Froggatt, deputy director of the climate programme at think tank Chatham House, believes that we should be vigilant of pledges that are made to provide loss and damage funding.
“Obviously, there is a tendency for countries to move existing climate finance or development financing into new funding mechanisms, rather than allocating new funds,” he says. “Loss and damage negotiations will be a crucial test to the goodwill of rich countries to actually help out.”?
Adaptation and mitigation at COP28
COP28 is also set to see landmark climate adaptation negotiations, with governments due to adopt a framework for achieving the Paris Agreement’s 'global goal on adaptation' (GGA). No clear definition of the goal was provided in the Paris Agreement; the aim of the GGA is to develop guidelines to allow countries to have more focused, measurable and comparable adaptation goals to pursue.?
The outcome of the GGA remains unclear, but what we do know is that the world is falling hugely short on adaptation. A recent UN report found that the financing gap between requirements and achievements is now at a staggering $194bn–366bn per year. Even as needs continue to grow, international public funding for adaptation in developing economies actually fell by 15% in 2021.
Renewables additions are set to increase by a record 107GW this year
Historic and projected annual net renewables capacity additions worldwide (GW)
On mitigation, meanwhile, there is expected to be renewed focus on renewables, after G20 leaders agreed in September to “pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally”, as well as to double energy efficiency, by 2030.?
If countries agree to adopt this target, it would be a “landmark moment”, says Froggatt, adding that it?“would require a total transformation of the energy sector, even in countries in Europe, which have so far led on renewables penetration globally”.
Scott, meanwhile, expects that “not every country will sign up to a tripling renewables pledge”, but even if it occurs on the sidelines of the main negotiations, she believes a renewables pledge will nonetheless be a key tool to “build up momentum towards the ultimate COP decisions that we need” if the world is to meet its climate goals.
By Nick Ferris