Why Complexity Stops Us From Noticing Change

The following is adapted from Surfing Rogue Waves.

Have you ever wondered why we don’t notice changes until after they happen? Think about it: change is a thing to study. It is something for after the fact, to look back upon. That’s true for small changes, and it’s true for the sweeping changes that alter the course of human history.

Yet, today, with the tools we have available, there is no reason why we can’t foresee the changes that are coming—and in fact, the benefits of doing that are enormous. Anticipating change would allow us to take advantage of the benefits while that change is happening. Just as importantly, it would allow us to alleviate (or at least lessen) the negative effects of that change.

So, why are we so bad at noticing change while it’s happening? In large part, it’s because of complexity. Perhaps, though, if we can understand complexity and how it interferes with our ability to notice change in real-time, we can overcome its effects and learn to spot change and disruption (and do something about it) while it’s happening.

What is Complexity?

We like to frame our lives as being “complex.” Maybe you have a lot of meetings to attend or an endless inbox or a bunch of birthday parties to go to on the same weekend, but this is far from what complexity can be. Your full calendar is thoroughly organized and predictable compared to the scale of what complexity truly is. 

How the earth was created and life as we know it is littered with complexity. Complexity is everything around us. It’s not a result of a condition; it is everything. Complexity is not a goal or a state we are trying to achieve; it is merely the reality of the world we now live in.

Complexity at a high level is made up of interactions, emergence, dynamics, self-organization, and adaptation. As in, true complexity is all of these things at once. If it is dynamic, but not self-organized, then it falls out of definition. 

The Interconnected Relationships Between Everything

We all regularly make complex decisions, but our instinct is to simplify things. As a result, we tend not to consider the complexity of the world around us consciously. The study of complexity science focuses on systems and challenges that are dynamic, unpredictable, and multidimensional by nature. 

Complexity science looks at the interconnected relationships between everything. This is immensely helpful when looking at the exponential changes that happen when things are digitized—complexity science allows us to move away from our traditional, linear thinking. No more cause and effect, but rather a million effects that might lead to one cause you notice and a thousand you don’t.

Humans are incredibly complex. Every part of our lives interacts with everything else. Friends, family, coworkers all impact our lives and outcomes. Then there is everyone we know on our social networks or the internet. Combine all that with the human body’s internal complexity; our brain is made up of tens of billions of neurons flying around and communicating via trillions of synaptic connections, some of which guide our thoughts and decisions. 

Amazingly, it all works together. Seriously, it’s mind-blowing. 

Complex Systems are Unpredictable

The biggest byproduct of complex systems is their unpredictable nature—crashes, fires, wars, all the fun stuff. The unpredictability has an upshot, though, as complex systems are incredibly robust and can endure incredible damage and massive environmental change. In the last two centuries, industrial progress has trashed our environment, but the durability of complex systems meant we found ways to adapt (so far). 

Those who do not understand complexity fail to see how large events build into things like climate change. All of us think we have essential jobs, yet our job doesn’t vanish when we call in sick for a day. When the president is hospitalized for a few days, the country does not shut down or collapse into chaos. Robust, complex systems always find a way to the next state of being.

If you live in a city, go over to the window and look outside. You will see a plethora of people coming and going, people riding bikes, cars, and buses driving around, delivery trucks stopping up traffic, the movement of endless ideas and goods all throughout the city. Somehow it all makes sense and works, yet there is no central planner for everything that is happening; it is not preplanned or managed from the top. The order of a city just emerges from the bottom up. 

Complexity Plays Out All Around Us

Complex systems are fascinating to study as they produce bewildering novelties of unpredictability, large events, robustness, and emergence. We see complexity play out in market volatility, industry failures, warnings of ecological failures, and even regularly in our daily lives. 

Furthermore, complexity is getting faster by the day—this is neither good nor bad, neither a gift nor a curse, but simply the inescapable reality of the times. Not all complexity is the same; some situations are far more complex than others—neurons, people, snowflakes, species, countries, companies, natural phenomena, and surfing, just to name a few! How we choose to engage complexity, if we can even consider it a choice, can be a burden or a blessing, or both. 

Complex systems are not in equilibrium; they are dynamic and, in a way, have a life of their own. Complexity lacks structure, but it isn’t necessarily chaotic. It occupies the unusual and uncomfortable space between order and chaos, which means that your beliefs’ interconnectedness to the truth or your expected truth is all part of the complexity.

Look Deeper to Understand Better

Today’s world is socially, economically, and politically more complex than it was in the past. We need new ways of thinking and tools of observation to comprehend what’s coming. The more we learn, the deeper we look, the more we understand through complexity the world within and around us, and the less we can ultimately understand with the old ways of thinking. 

From a purely pragmatic perspective, we must understand complexity as a way to build robust systems. We’d like to think that if we can identify the conditions that create large, disruptive events, maybe we can prevent those disruptions—that change—from happening. 

The reality is that it is through experiencing the change that we grow, adapt, and evolve. And, by understanding the complexity and interconnectedness of our lives, we can spot the change as it’s happening and learn from the disruption.

For more advice on how to identify and adapt to complexity, you can find Surfing Rogue Waves on Amazon.

Eric Pilon-Bignell is a pragmatic futurist focused on addressing disruption by increasing the creative capacity of individuals, teams, and organizations to ignite change, innovation, and foster continuous growth. Eric has an undergraduate degree in engineering, an MBA in Information Systems, and a Ph.D. in Global Leadership. His doctoral work primarily explored complexity sciences centered on executive cognition and their use of intuitive improvisation, decision-making, artificial intelligence, and data-based decision models. When he is not working with clients, researching, or writing, he can be found in the mountains or on the water. He founded PROJECT7 to raise awareness and money for research on brain-related illnesses. Eric is currently working and living with his wife in Chicago, Illinois. To connect or learn more about this book, Eric, or PROJECT7, please visit www.ericpb.me.