Why care about volcanoes?

Most of us are exposed to threats without even realising it.??

Did you ever vacation on the Canary Islands, on Hawaii, in Italy, in Iceland, in Bali, anywhere around the Pacific or maybe on some other suspiciously cone-shaped island? Do you have any assets in those regions – a house, a farm, a factory? Have you ever ridden a plane? Then congratulations, you won exposure to volcanic eruptions! In fact, if we take supereruptions into consideration, then the whole world is at risk anyway... but let’s leave that topic for a future article.??

The best thing to do when facing a risk is to understand it as best as you can and then design proper mitigation measures. My purpose as a cat modeler - or more accurately, the "volcanologist for every purpose" - at Mitiga is to do exactly that: help you understand and mitigate volcanic risks. You may ask yourself: Who is Mitiga? And should I even care about volcanoes? ?

Mitiga who?

First things first: Mitiga Solutions is a Barcelona-based insurtech company. Well, actually, nowadays we are calling ourselves mostly climate-tech - but I am not talking about climate today, so let's use our secondary personality. We're a startup, we're flexible. Born from Spain’s National Supercomputing Centre in 2018, we use high-performance computing, the brightest scientific minds and state-of-the-art numerical modelling to provide our clients with evidence-based risk and impact assessments for a range of geophysical, meteorological and climate hazards.??

So, do I need to think about volcanoes?

As for the next question, this depends on who and even more where you are. As a volcanologist I’d ask back: why wouldn’t you be fascinated by this beautiful, powerful, destructive force of nature? The sight of glowing lava slowly and unstoppably making its way down the flanks, of unbelievable explosions sending ash high enough into the atmosphere that it threatens airplanes, of hot avalanches burning their path through anything in their way, will never seize to amaze and humble me. Volcanism is an impressive way of mother nature to demonstrate that humans are a mere parasite on this planet. It is geology - that tends to act on timescales of thousands to millions and billions of years - accelerated to supersonic speeds. It is a threat, but also a blessing: fertile volcanic soils have attracted human settlements since long ago, and the beauty of volcanoes is now an important and lucrative aspect of local tourism.??

You personally may only be at risk that one week a year you spend in Tenerife. But for the more than 1 billion people worldwide living within 150 km of an active volcano (gonna mention that in every blog), volcanic risk is a daily reality. Volcanic eruptions are a potential cause for major losses around the globe, with an estimated total of 12B US$ of damage between 1980 and 2019. Significant eruptions since 1970 have caused economic losses between 200M and 5B US$ per event. If you were born before the 2000’s, you surely remember the record- and tongue-breaking volcano on that ranking: Eyjafjallaj?kull in Iceland. Its 2010 eruption was not even particularly big, but the ash was distributed so widely that it grounded most planes in Europe for weeks.?

Ok, and what do we do about it now?

Here’s a list of potential actions:?

• Stop the volcano from erupting: Unfortunately, we can’t. No matter what some people tell you about releasing pressure from the magma chamber by drilling into it... No, we can’t.?
• Place the statue of a saint in front of an advancing lava flow: While this did have success on occasion, I personally wouldn’t count on it.?
• Put some form of giant hat over the vent, in order to....??

Okay okay, here’s the real list:?

• BEFORE: This is the time to get to know your volcano as best as you can. Studying the volcano’s history, hazard and risk assessments support land planning and the design of emergency plans. Additionally, volcano observatories around the world are keeping a close eye on the restless mountains under their watch, using a range of geophysical and geochemical techniques to provide warning before an impending eruption.??
• DURING: Sensible evacuation is key in an eruption crisis, as is the continued monitoring and forecasting of the ongoing situation to adjust the plan if needed. Volcanic eruptions can go on for a long time – from hours to decades – and change course several times.?
• AFTER: Finally, it is time to rebuild.??

Where does Mitiga come in?

First of all, we can help with the "BEFORE" by providing you with long-term impact assessments, hazard maps, etc. But more importantly, and true to our identification as "insurtech", we can help with one essential element: Money makes the world go round and all the above steps require funding. The need is particularly urgent and significant during and immediately after an eruption, when infrastructure, farmland and homes have been destroyed. This particularly affects developing countries, where risk mitigation and recovery after a crisis usually requires humanitarian aid.??

While some natural disasters can be covered by insurance, damages due to volcanic eruptions usually aren’t. The individual protection gap for recent eruptions was between 50 and 100%, which is mainly attributed to limitations of traditional insurance. Even if it is available, traditional insurance cover for volcanic eruptions is very expensive, and the processing of claims is often complicated and long. While eruptions can cause immense losses, they are still considered a minor peril by the insurance sector as significant events occur less frequently than other natural disasters. Therefore, insurance companies usually lack the expertise to underwrite such cases and eruptions remain a poorly or unmodelled risk in the (re)insurance sector.??

And here's where we and the concept of alternative risk transfer come in! Stay tuned for more info next week!

Your Friendly Neighboorhood Volcanologist

Aside from personal experience and musings, this article was based on:

1. https://www.swissre.com/dam/jcr:02550b19-f9a2-45f2-9288-377d25952b5b/Swiss+Re_Volcano_PR_en.pdf?

1. https://www.munichre.com/en/risks/natural-disasters-losses-are-trending-upwards/volcanic-eruptions-the-earths-ring-of-fire.html?

1. Smolka, A., and K?ser, M. (2015) Chapter 12 - Volcanic Risks and Insurance. In Shroder, J.F., and Papale, P. (Eds.), Volcanic Hazards, Risks and Disasters (pp. 301-314), in Hazards and Disasters Series, Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-396453-3.00012-5?

1. Prata, F., and Rose, B. (2015) Chapter 52: Volcanic ash hazards to aviation. In Sigurdsson, H. (Ed.), The Encyclopedia of Volcanoes (Second Edition) (pp. 911-934), Academic Press. DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-12-385938-9.00052-3?

1. Blong, R., Tillyard, C., and Attard, G. (2017) Insurance and a Volcanic Crisis – A Tale of One (Big) Eruption, Two Insurers, and Innumerable Insureds. In: Fearnley, C.J. et al. (eds) Observing the Volcano World. Advances in Volcanology, Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/11157_2016_42?