Why Can't the Military Find Enough People?

You may recently have read about the military recruiting crisis. Starting in 2022 the military services have missed their recruiting goals by many thousands leading to the possibility of units being understaffed or non-combat ready. For instance, the Army missed its recruiting goals by 10,000 recruits in FY23. And while not as acute, the other services report similar recruiting shortfalls except for the Marines and Space Force (Thanks to Steve Carell?).

The crisis has gotten the full attention of our military leadership and policy makers. While having many moving parts, the crisis consists of both the declining eligibility of American youth coupled with a declining desire to serve in the armed forces. Only an astounding 23% of American youth are even considered fit enough to serve due to factors such as obesity, drug use, mental health issues and criminal activity. Having a smaller pond in which to fish is bad enough, but American youth are showing a shrinking propensity to sign on the dotted line.

A growing distrust of institutions in general, a lack of knowledge about the military's mission or military life, a strong civilian economy, knock on effects from the pandemic lockdowns, bad optics from the Afghanistan withdrawal, or politicization of the military have all been offered as possible reasons young Americans are avoiding service. A recent Pew Research Center poll reported that only 43% of Americans between 18 and 29 view the military favorably while other surveys reveal that only 9% of young Americans today even consider military service as an option down from 13% before the pandemic according to Pentagon sources.

Suggested remedies to the crisis are as varied as the suspected causes, upon which there is little agreement. It is well known that the majority of military recruits come from families with at least one member who has worn the uniform. Reports now suggest that military veterans are not encouraging their family members to enlist which serves to dry up an important source of recruits. This may be due to the perceived politicization of the service or the introduction of "woke" policies. The services themselves deny that social justice education and policies deter enlistments, which itself may be true, but which may also be the source of veteran reticence to encourage enlistment. More study is needed.

Families without a military tradition have little information about what life in the military is actually like which suggests that more comprehensive outreach by recruitment services to non-military families is a possible solution. I must admit to being amused by the idea that a lack of knowledge about the military serves as an obstacle to signing up. At the time I joined (in 1981), my perceptions of military life were shaped by a combination of Gomer Pyle, MASH, and Apocalypse Now. The girl I was dating at the time cited the Air Cavalry scene with Robert Duvall in Apocalypse Now as one of her reasons for breaking up. Didn't want to be a war widow. Charlie don't surf indeed!

One could even make the argument that a lack of knowledge about military life may be more feature than bug as far as recruitment goes. A young person could do worse than to say pick up a copy of Joseph Heller's Catch 22 for a glimpse into the kludgy bureaucracy and maddening decision making that can describe military life. There are of course many positive aspects to military life which still keep it as one of the best ways to get a head start in life.

So what's the solution? Some policy makers have floated the idea of bringing back the draft thereby ending our decades old experiment with an all volunteer force. At least one senator has publicly suggested enticing new migrants to join the armed forces with the promise of citizenship for their service (Alaric, please call the office). Other policy tweaks include increased incentives or waiving some previous barriers to entry such as marijuana usage.

Barring policy and incentive solutions, a persistent reduction in recruiting may mean our military leadership will have to do more with less or simply lower our force posture. Military strategists will argue whether battlefield technologies such as drones and advanced information systems can replace raw troop strength, but we might be on the verge of finding out in real time.

To this end I conducted my own survey of military members in my immediate family which includes five military academy graduates four of which are currently on active duty. They are all confident that the problem will be sorted out one way or another and told Dad to calm down. This makes me feel better about it all.

What are your thoughts? Will we need a draft?

Captain Rob Graves is a veteran airline pilot and retired Air Force officer. He currently flies a Boeing 737 for a major American airline where he has over 30 years of experience. His Air Force career included instructing future USAF pilots in the T-37 primary jet trainer, aerial refueling in the KC-135 Stratotanker, and conducting worldwide logistics in the C-5 Galaxy cargo aircraft. He is the author of This is Your Captain Speaking, an aviation blog. It can be found at robertgraves.com.