Why Call of Duty Is The Nail In PUBG's Coffin.

12 months ago we were watching PUBG take over Steam and noting that nothing on the horizon from the AAA publishers was going to put a dent in it. Many of the larger publishers weren't even taking the game seriously because it didn't cost $60. We all knew that none of them could pivot fast enough to react to the game, and we were right.

Unfortunately for BlueHole, there was a company that could pivot that quickly. Epic launched a Battle Royale version of their long developed game Fortnite and the landscape changed dramatically.

The Story So Far

PUBG's player count has been falling all year. This weekend we saw that Twitch viewership hit a new low on October 13th of 363.5K hours watched. Fortnite will get most of the credit for this but as I pointed out in February, Bluehole hasn't been able to step up and compete. The game is still buggy, cheating is rampant, and they aren't able to iterate as quickly as Epic has. Even they know this. They launched their "Fix PUBG" initiative back in August to “destroy bugs, deliver long-needed quality-of-life features, and take [PlayerUnknown’s Battlegrounds] to the next level by shipping fundamental performance improvements,”.

At the moment it looks like the Battle Royale genre is a two horse race. There's frequent discussion on whether or not the market can "handle" a third game. Personally, I think it can, we just have not seen one. Between PUBG and Fortnite we do see a difference in the games. PUBG is the grittier, more realistic game. Fortnite is the over-the-top, brightly colored, not taking itself too seriously game. It's GTA vs Saint's Row.

Unless by "not taking itself too seriously" you mean they can't go out and get an extra $1.25 BILLION. I'm guessing that was because the golf carts are eating up serious wattage during their recharge cycles.

Where We Go From Here

Bluehole had a year to clean up the game and they have failed to do so. Now we've seen the launch of Call of Duty's Battle Royale mode and it is grim news for PUBG. At a glance:

• "Call of Duty’s battle royale mode, Blackout, is exceptional" - Polygon
• "Suffice it to say, it’s like Playerunknown’s Battlegrounds but polished." - PC World
• "A polished, pulsating battle royale." - Eurogamer

CoD's Blackout mode, their term for Battle Royale, isn't breaking new ground like Fortnite did with building. They are simply taking what PUBG created and polishing it. That new record low for Twitch viewership we mentioned? Happens to pair up directly with the launch of Call of Duty Blackops 4. Epic hasn't seen a dramatic downturn in players since the launch of CoD, and they won't. Fortnite is still it's own beast. PUBG is in serious trouble though. What Activision has delivered is exactly what PUBG players want. It's realistic, it's polished, and it's fun. With Activision's eyes on e-sports and their experience with Overwatch, you can bet it's going to be free of cheaters as well.

Gritty, realistic, shooter. Fun to play. No cheaters. Aside from the $60 price point, why would players be sticking around to play PUBG?

They won't.

Activision announced that the game set an internal record for launch day digital sales and Sony announced that the game also set a PlayStation Store record for day one digital full game sales. They haven't announced exact numbers yet, but last year Call of Duty: World War II did $500 million in sales over the first three days of their launch. That was double the sales of the previous game in the series.

Activision waited to enter the fray, but they came to play to win.

1. They didn't try to compete directly with the Fortnite audience.
2. They delivered a polished version of what they knew players would want to see.
3. They beat their main rival, EA, to the punch by months.

All of this is good for Activision, and very bad for BlueHole.

Congrats on making it to the end! Leave your thoughts in the comments or show up during our weekly Twitch streams about the business side of this industry and tell me I'm an idiot. Let's face it, you won't be the only one.

The Powell Group tracks over 500+ video game publishers and another 3,500+ developers across PC, Console, and mobile. Feel free to reach out to me here on LinkedIN or visit our site at www.powellgroupconsulting.com.