Why Brexit May NOT Happen: Real House of Cards?

LATEST FOLLOW ON ARTICLE: Why Do We Need A New British Prime Minister ASAP? Uncertainty = Irreversible Damage 

1. Whilst the Brexit vote was an historic upset of the European Union by the United Kingdom, note how nothing is really different today save the massive volatility in global financial markets and global reactions?

2. Also note that the UK prime minister David Cameron after resignation is still ensconced at Number 10 Downing Street and those who are the supposed victors such as Boris Johnson (Bojo) and Michael Gove (Gover) are mostly silent and subdued. Why's that?

3. Simply put, Brexit is not going to happen yet and there are some very concrete reasons for this. In fact, Brexit may be delayed for a long time to come and may never really happen as the EU invents new tiers of membership such as associate status!

4. Did you know that the EU Referendum isn’t legally binding, it is just advisory?

5. Technically, the British government doesn’t have to do anything.

6. However, UK government is under enormous pressure to get things moving both from Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, and the momentum injected by the will of the people post the announcement of the EU referendum result in favour of Brexit. The British establishment never wanted this result.

7. Note the bluff that was NEVER executed at the resignation of prime minister David Cameron.

8. Cameron campaigned for the “Remain” side and had threatened throughout his campaign that withdrawal would begin immediately after the vote if “Leave” won, but that seems to have been the bluff?

9. Cameron said he will leave 10 Downing Street before the Conservative Party conference in October, and will leave the task of beginning negotiations on withdrawal to his successor. Note the explicit delay implied in that.  However, it should not surprise us, if the global financial markets expedite this process of appointing a new leader of the Conservative Party rather faster than Cameron would like.  In other words, all this could happen in a few weeks and not take several months.

10. Cameron realises that the UK PM who starts the FORMAL negotiations with the EU will damage their legacy. He would much rather that the reputation and legacy of his successor(s) be put into question rather than his own. Is this why Bojo and Gover are so subdued? Cameron reportedly told aides following his resignation speech: "Why should I do all the hard s**t?"

11. The mechanism by which countries leave the EU is Article 50 of the 2007 Lisbon Treaty. Under Article 50, once a member state notifies the European Council of its intention to withdraw, it has two years to negotiate the terms of that withdrawal and work out a new relationship with the EU on issues like trade and immigration.

12. Once invoked, Article 50 is a rapidly depreciating asset with no emergency brake. There is nothing in the Lisbon treaty that allows a leaving state to change its mind. The UK will lose control of the negotiations after Article 50 is invoked and the EU and its member countries will have the upper hand. Once the two years are up, the treaties between the EU and the UK will be severed, whether an agreement has been reached or not. It is in nobody's interest to have that happen.

13. Once Article 50 is invoked, the process is irreversible. The UK can’t back out. The terms of Britain’s exit, though not the Brexit itself, will be subject to veto by all 27 of its EU counterparts.

14. EU leaders want Britain to invoke Article 50 as quickly as possible, to end political uncertainty and to restore some confidence to financial markets.

15. Leaders of the “Leave” campaign say there’s no rush and argue that there should be INFORMAL talks on withdrawal before the article is invoked and the clock starts ticking. We now have three months in which EU leaders can devise some sort of associate membership for the UK that just might be enough to stop article 50 from being triggered and give both sides some face saving ruse.

16. What's clear? Leaders spearheading "Brexit" and "Remain" leaders who said they would work to deliver "Brexit" are in no hurry to actually implement it.

17. Even the Brexit leaders want to maintain an advantageous trade relationship with the EU, and two years is not a long time to negotiate one.

18. The EU is in no mood to make this easy for the UK, as it tries to prevent other member states from planning their own Swexits, Dexits, Nexits, Frexits, and Auxits. What's common for those countries? They are all net contributors to the EU!  Let us not be surprised if the French and Germans come up with more innovative solutions to EU membership given their domestic Europhobic pressures pushing for their own referenda.

19. There may need to be a parliamentary vote on the Brexit before Article 50 is invoked. What's the rub?

20. A majority of the 650 members of the House of Commons favour remaining in the EU and campaigned to "Remain."

21. This means that the process is likely to be long and aggravating.

22. Tricky question? Which of the EU’s regulations will UK choose to maintain as British law and what’s going to happen to Scotland and Northern Ireland?

23. How and whether the Brexit proceeds will depend in large part on who the Conservative Party chooses as its next leader and prime minister.

24. Next UK PM: Boris Johnson (Brexit), Michael Gove (Brexit), Andrea Leadsom (Brexit), Dr Liam Fox (Brexit), George Osborne (Remain) or Theresa May (Remain)?  

25. A quasi pro-“Remain” or "Brexit" government could just wait this out by indefinitely postponing Article 50's invocation, whilst advancing informal negotiations.

26. By the time the next general election rolls around in 2020, or sooner, it’s possible Brexit-happy voters will have lost their nerve and this whole thing could just die on the vine. This would be the hope of the British establishment.

27. Even if Bojo or another pro-"Leave" Tory like Gover or Fox takes over, that doesn’t necessarily mean Brexit is imminent. They want the power to negotiate, not necessarily the actual Brexit.

28. Bojo has said that the result won’t mean “pulling up the drawbridge” and that there’s “no need for haste” in severing the country’s EU ties.  The German and French leadership now seem to echo those sentiments.

29. Could Bojo, Gover or Fox really use the Brexit result to launch themselves into the prime minister, deputy prime minister and/or chancellor's office and then not even follow through on their clarion call? Yes, they could definitely do that and this would be in the interest of preserving two important unions -- first and foremost the Union of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and second the Union with Europe!  It remains to be seen if the Conservative party internal politics will allow them to do so.

[STOPS]

What are your thoughts, observations and views?

Key Comment

The following comment from The Guardian comments section by "Teeb" summarises the situation rather well!

"If Boris Johnson looked downbeat yesterday, that is because he realises that he has lost.

Perhaps many Brexiters do not realise it yet, but they have actually lost, and it is all down to one man: David Cameron.

With one fell swoop yesterday at 9:15 am, Cameron effectively annulled the referendum result, and simultaneously destroyed the political careers of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and leading Brexiters who cost him so much anguish, not to mention his premiership.

How?

Throughout the campaign, Cameron had repeatedly said that a vote for leave would lead to triggering Article 50 straight away. Whether implicitly or explicitly, the image was clear: he would be giving that notice under Article 50 the morning after a vote to leave. Whether that was scaremongering or not is a bit moot now but, in the midst of the sentimental nautical references of his speech yesterday, he quietly abandoned that position and handed the responsibility over to his successor.

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten ... the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over - Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession ... broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was "never". When Michael Gove went on and on about "informal negotiations" ... why? why not the formal ones straight away? ... he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

All that remains is for someone to have the guts to stand up and say that Brexit is unachievable in reality without an enormous amount of pain and destruction, that cannot be borne. And David Cameron has put the onus of making that statement on the heads of the people who led the Brexit campaign."

[ENDS]