Why Bolivia’s Conservative Santa Cruz is Gaining Political Importance

Santa Cruz de la Sierra, the most populated city in Bolivia, is considered the country’s business, conservative, and religious artery (and, formerly, the heart of a failed separatist movement). However, it is largely ignored in Bolivian electoral politics. Despite being mainly associated with the old guard that held power before the pro-indigenous left started gaining significant ground in the late 1990s and early 2000s, Santa Cruz is home to 28% of the country’s population and the country’s financial center.

However, interest in the city’s influence is growing again. While the city’s largely-white elite has not held as much cachet since the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS) led former coca grower Evo Morales to win the presidency in 2005, some politicians, civil organizers, and business leaders are attempting to reclaim the city’s prominent role in national politics.?

Furthermore, a recent failed coup attempt by former army general Juan José Zú?iga Macías raised questions about the extent to which the region’s right-wing movement may influence the 2025 presidential election. Zú?iga not only wanted to remove President Luis Arce and ban Morales from running for office again, but also release former interim President Jeanine á?ez and opposition leader Luis Fernando Camacho — both now in prison.?

The 2019 Election and Santa Cruz

The controversial 2019 election briefly punctuated the momentum of Bolivia’s left-wing indigenous movement, pushing Santa Cruz back into the national political spotlight.??

Jeanine á?ez, born near the Bolivian Amazon in the department of Beni before adopting Santa Cruz as her political home, became the country’s second female president in 2019 after an extraordinary vote in the Plurinational Legislative Assembly (ALP). á?ez proudly spent most of her political life, including as president, serving the interests of the Santa Cruz elite and reversing much of the power shift towards the more diverse, liberal cities in the Andes, such as the political capital La Paz.?

á?ez took the presidency after the Organization of American States, along with the Plurinational Electoral Organ of Bolivia, pointed out vast inaccuracies and irregularities in the vote tally that appeared to have declared Morales as the winner. Controversially, á?ez and the opposition declared her interim president and demanded for Morales to surrender to the country’s justice system. Morales left the country shortly after, gaining asylum in Mexico.

á?ez paraded with her most loyal supporters in Santa Cruz with a giant Christian Bible, saying that “the Bible has returned to the Palace” — a reference to Morales’s indigenous roots, despite Morales publicly identifying as Catholic. Opposition supporters then took to the streets demanding Morales’ extradition, leading to violent clashes with MAS supporters in Santa Cruz that resulted in 30 deaths, mostly of MAS supporters. á?ez was convicted on charges of illegally obtaining power and is awaiting trial on genocide charges. She was offered asylum in Brazil by the country’s former president, Jair Bolsonaro.?

The Bible stunt demonstrated a desire by á?ez and many in the Cruce?o elite to bring political power back to the conservative bastion, and highlighted the cultural and political significance of religious divides in Bolivia. While most of the country identifies as Catholic, some in Santa Cruz and other business centers perceive the Andes region, populated mostly by indigenous peoples like the Aymara and Quechua, as being less developed. Indigenous politicians have suffered repeated attacks and threats in Santa Cruz, a place Morales avoided when he first ran for president in 2002 due to the racist insults he received during previous trips.?

Since the 2020 election, which saw the MAS come back to power under popular Public Economy and Finance Minister Luis Arce, the Santa Cruz opposition and business, political, and religious interest groups have once again attempted to regain their place at the forefront of national political dominance. There have been continuous protests, blockades, and even clashes with police in Santa Cruz from opposition activists over a series of government policies, including the national census and mining policy. Politicians with national ambitions have taken advantage of these glimpses of national relevance to propel their careers into the limelight.?

The Rise of Right-Wing Populism in Bolivia

So far, the success of right-wing candidates has been largely limited to Santa Cruz and its surrounding area. No Bolivian candidate on the right has won a national election since President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada of the conservative-leaning Revolutionary Nationalist Movement in 2002, who resigned one year into his term due to protests and riots against him in La Paz, El Alto, and Cochabamba. He has lived in exile in the United States since 2003, with various MAS figures demanding his extradition for prosecution in Bolivia over corruption and allegedly conducting extrajudicial killings of activists advocating for the nationalization of natural gas.?

Conservative presidents since the turn of the millennium have faced numerous scandals, hindering the reputation of the Bolivian right. Carlos Mesa, who was president from 2003 to 2005 and Sánchez de Lozada’s vice president, distanced himself from the right wing, instead embracing a left-wing message and joining the Revolutionary Left Front, which helped secure him the presidency.?

To undo the perception of the conservative opposition in Santa Cruz being out of touch, elitist, and associated with the old conservative guard, the new right in Santa Cruz has opted for tech-savvy tactics to rally the electorate around right-wing ideas. These figures have borrowed from other leaders of Latin America’s “new right,” which has taken a much more populist and non-ideological refrain, at least rhetorically and stylistically. Models include libertarian economist Javier Milei in Argentina, tough-on-crime “philosopher king” Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, banana heir Daniel Noboa in Ecuador, and former military lieutenant Bolsonaro of Brazil, who remains a prominent figure on the Latin American right despite being banned from running for public office.?

Outsiders such as Agustin Zambrana Arze, a 41-year-old lawyer-turned-politician from Santa Cruz, are now using the internet to gain political traction and emulate the success of these right-wing neighbors. In an interview with Southern Pulse, Zambrana denied being right-wing, insisting that “I represent the disaffected people, I work with everyone to ensure a better Bolivia.” Still, when pressed on his philosophy, Zambrana answered that “I would consider myself a traditional conservative, and a Catholic.”

Zambrana began his political career online during the pandemic, planning sit-ins and local gatherings in Santa Cruz, demanding reforms and better representation. He created an online platform, El Bunker, accompanied by a series of media shows and outlets meant to push for the base’s platform, which calls itself Los Bunkeros. From the so-called Bunker, Zambrana has organized a series of demonstrations and events, helping foment his digital footprint. Beyond disparaging socialism, his views focus mostly on the economy, with Bolivia undergoing its worst economic crisis since the 1990s, with standards of living, currency value, and purchasing power in rapid decline despite low inflation. He hammers home his anti-corruption message, pushing for an investigation into President Arce’s alleged contracting of personal friends and his own son at the YPFB, the state-owned petroleum company.

Despite his flashy tactics, fringe candidates like Zambrana and Camacho’s far-right Creemos movement have so far only earned a limited following, mainly in Santa Cruz. However, such use of the internet and social media by candidates on a national level could cause serious problems for information quality and trust in a country that already ranks among the worst in the region for press freedom and disinformation — with rampant conspiracy theories about the 2024 coup attempt only adding fuel to the fire. The Carter Center has observed this trend increase dramatically since the 2020 election, stating that “the main social networks operating in the country [have] served as vehicles for false or misleading messages about the candidates and the electoral process,” characterizing it as an “information toxification.” A research center at The Catholic University of Bolivia dedicated to monitoring false information online reports said that since the 2020 election, disinformation reports have augmented significantly.

What Santa Cruz Means for the 2025 Elections

Despite the populist right wing’s growing popularity in Latin America, the movement has had little success in recent memory. However, it is worth keeping an eye on as the leftist MAS movement becomes increasingly divided.

Bolivia’s position as an increasingly divergent state, moving closer to left-led democracies and partly to autocracies such as Cuba and Venezuela, may explain why a right-wing ethos has failed to capture the Andean state.?

Unlike its neighbors, Bolivia has remained resistant to the rightward shift that has swept through countries like Brazil and Argentina, and, increasingly, Chile, and Ecuador. This resistance is deeply rooted in Bolivia's complex socio-political landscape, which is heavily influenced by a strong pro-indigenous sentiment, a focus on environmental protection, and a wariness of U.S. interference — all hallmarks of the MAS and its political allies. The Bolivian public’s ever-growing concern for indigenous rights, environmental protection, and U.S. interference may also solidify the left’s strength nationally.??

Despite this, recent MAS scandals over the economy, energy, and ideological infighting could create an opening for the right wing in the future. Whether Zambrana and other ambitious politicians on the right, willing to use new, tech-driven tactics, can capitalize on that opening remains to be seen.

For now, MAS seems to be leading in the country’s nascent 2025 election polls. Arce still leads the pack with 16% of the vote for a possible presidential run according to a Captura Consulting poll from April 2024, while the center-right mayor of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa, followed with about 12% nationally. While many in Santa Cruz have floated Camacho as a potential candidate, the jailed governor of Santa Cruz Department has a 90% disapproval rating and limited support outside the region. Arce jailed him for his role in the 2019 interim government and inciting violent protests and riots against left-wing activists in Santa Cruz, which led to several deaths.?

The recent failed coup attempt may change the dynamics of the 2025 election. However, whether it would systematically change the nature of Bolivia’s political stability is not yet clear. Arce recently told Reuters that the recent failed coup attempt has only strengthened his government, although updated polling figures are not yet available. The event does show that political violence, although contained, appears to be part of Bolivia's democratic ethos. Bolivians are now conditioned to the cyclical nature of political instability in their country.?

The inability of Bolivia's right-wing factions in Santa Cruz to gain traction, despite the country's economic struggles and internal MAS conflicts, underscores a distinctive political dynamic. Bolivia's electorate remains firmly anchored to the values and policies that the MAS represents, despite growing public disenchantment with the current government. This scenario presents a paradox where economic crises and political scandals do not translate into immediate gains for the opposition, reflecting a deep ideological affinity for the left within the Bolivian populace.

As Bolivia approaches the 2025 presidential election, the nation's political future hinges on whether opposition figures, mostly in Santa Cruz, can effectively challenge the MAS's dominance and resonate with a broader segment of the electorate. This evolving political narrative will be crucial in determining whether Bolivia remains an outlier in the regional shift towards right-wing populism, or if it will eventually succumb to the same forces that have reshaped its neighbors.

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