Why aren’t my windows smart?

Recently I was looking at smart locks which seem to be convenient and fun for access control to a building. However every house that probably has a smart lock you can usually just break a window to bypass the lock smart or otherwise which made me think. Why are windows so dumb? Every window I’ve ever seen is virtually the same as they were 100 years ago. They have more panes and argon gas fillings and sometimes low-e coatings but basically just glass and a casement. Why don’t they open and close themselves based on the weather and interior conditions? I would guess something like 20% - 30% of a building envelope is windows and they account for 30-40% of heat loss on cold days. Just as importantly closing blinds can help reduce passive solar heat gain in the summer and optimize for it when free heat energy is beneficial in the winter. Fact check U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) ?

It seems like thermostats like the Ecobee (also an easy retro-fit that can be done DIY or by pros) are perfectly poised to coordinate with window sensors and coordinate operation with the feedback loop of the remote thermostats inside the house.? Beyond that window replacement is a common home improvement making the market a prime one for retrofit to a higher degree of energy efficiency given the existing tax credits and potential ROI. In fact more than $200B is spent on windows every year. What I find interesting is that the average cost of production of a window is roughly $50 regardless of the type and retail price point.? An average homeowner could expect to pay $1,000 for that same window installed. There is nothing wrong with that but that model doesn’t lend well to a more complicated smart window. Let’s say a smart window is $150 to produce vs. $50 the end user would be looking at $3,000 retail. No thanks for your average homeowner even it it does pay for itself over 15 years. It’s just too big of a nut.

I don’t see why smart windows couldn’t be the same price as conventional with the ongoing efficiency operation of the smart components coming via monthly service subscription that is significantly less than the savings achieved for the homeowner. The additional $100 of production cost plus manufacturer margin could be recouped by the Andersen Corporation s and Marvin s of the world via let’s say 36 months of smart window operation at $10/month while they save you about $50. $40 of savings for the homeowner and a MRR stream for window manufactures. If customers don’t want the smart features then they are just plain old windows. It’s basically built in financing but with an ROI and fewer middle men and mark ups.

Furthermore given some of the challenges of Tesla and solar roofs with the amount of manual labor required and scale barriers, windows are one of the simplest? and easiest home improvements and can usually be done with two people, accurate measurements and replacement inserts completed in a single day.

I’m not an engineer but what would a theoretical smart window system do for efficiency over a 30-40 year lifespan when accounting for passive solar heat gain/loss optimization? Nothing? A lot? Perhaps insulating shades could work with motion detectors to minimize heat or cooling loss when occupants are gone. How would you power them? Solar or power over ethernet, rechargeable battery built into the sash? How smart could we make them, what could they do for us and what would that do for energy consumption?

Finally and most importantly I think people have to want smart windows for more than just efficiency or ROI. The founder of Allbirds once said you can’t just sell on the green aspect which is why Allbirds are sold on comfort and fashion despite being the most environmentally friendly shoes on the planet. Solar roofs are as much about virtue signaling as they are about reducing or eliminating an electrical bill and carbon foot print. How can windows provide a similar value to buyers and end users? Are security functionality or privacy viable means of seller motivation or would the ROI be enough for people? A given is that smart windows would need to look as good or better than conventional windows. Nobody is going to get super jazzed about some ugly windows screwing up their curb appeal. Can a window be produced that is 10x better or cooler than conventional windows?

I think this is possible and for a corollary the smart lock market is about $3B a year growing at 20% a year versus about $7B for mechanical locks possibly flat or declining. Smart locks ate maybe $1B or less of the mechanical lock market and grew it to $3B because they are three times the cost and people were willing to pay that. They created a new market just like Peter Thiel likes to see from his book Zero to One. Do smart locks have success pulling an MRR or subscription for convenient access control? I would think not as much success as smart windows could have since there is a more direct ROI via the efficiency and energy savings that you could prove on a monthly basis like my BeeTheChange thermostat does already.

Why now? IoT technology is there, the smart thermostats are there and DIY smart home systems are maturing and growing. Beyond that I recently read in National Geographic about the technical advancements we have made in glass. Gorilla Glass, bendable glass in smart phones. Clear OLED TV displays. It seems like we are entering the golden age of glass and given the literal state of glass as an amorphous solid it lends itself as a blank canvas for further chemical manipulation and technological advancement. Beyond that the home improvement market has never been stronger and will stay that way because of a housing shortage and the high cost of building due in part to skilled labor shortages.

If you think I have any of this wrong please let me know and I’m happy to correct and to learn. If you too want smart windows what kinds of features would you like to see from them?

-Bryn Erickson