Why 2020 was crazy, and why 2021 will be one of the best you'll ever know

Its 4am. Storm Bella is howling a gale out there. All fight has left the small family of illuminated reindeer I got from CostCo and they have all passed out on their sides, strewn across the front lawn. 2020, a bad year for the CostCo reindeer species.

Or maybe that's not what's really keeping me up. In fact, I know it's not. I've slept through worse than Bella is currently offering. Being honest, the feeling I have that has really arrested my consciousness is one I recognise from having it many times before. It's one of hope and ambition and this time it's further excited by the turn of the year. I'm a big believer in moments, or points in time, being symbolic of various things. So, to me, the turn of the year is always quite a significant thing.

I feel optimistic about 2021. I have long believed that everything in life, everything, either breaks or changes. 2020 has been a year where I think there has been a crescendo of events and things, all coming together at once to create a storm (much like Bella) that has left all of us stood there wondering "what the hell is going on"? I remember the date that COVID really started to get serious in the UK, the weekend of the 14th March. My wife Amanda and her sister had been for a weekend in Dubai while I was at home watching things unfolding at a rate of knots. By the time they returned on the 16th March, we were in Lockdown. Ellice, my wife's sister ended up staying with us for two months. To stave off the boredom we ran 10km a day every day for 30 days. We kept life going through the bewilderment of the moment as well as simply having no other option.

On the 14th April I made this video and published it on my social media. I honestly thought then that by now, 27th December, the pandemic would be well its its demise globally, or at least in climates and countries where we have a more advanced ability to control curve balls that mother nature throws us.

I still believe what I said, I just think my timings are a little bit out ;-)

Then as the year went on, we saw that 2020 was indeed going to be the year where all the gods brought out their crazy instruments and created a symphony like no other in living memory.

TIME reported Worst locust swarm in decades destroying crops in east Africa https://ti.me/3aMZQpu

Australia faced devastating fires, then California joined them later, remember that?!! I can remember watching the Twitter feed from leaders in my industry like Brett Iredale showing some of the most profound images I have seen of the fires in Australia. Never in my life did I think I would see whole villages of people standing in the sea to escape the fire.

We thought stockpiling on toilet paper would save us from the virus.... Panic buying. I've only ever seen it in movies. Then I found myself doing it. Filling up the cars with petrol. The power of the unknown can provoke the most primitive emotions. I remember feeling compelled to think about what I could do within reason to make sure we had things that we would need.

1. It was also the year where one of the most entertaining men on earth lost his position as one of the most powerful men on earth. There is so much that I could write about "The Donald", but just check out the clip below and try not to laugh. It's now 04:52 and I'm watching this clip of Trump bragging about passing a basic cognitive test really trying not to laugh too loud and wake my 1-year-old up.

On a serious note, I was shocked when Trump announced that the USA was suspending funding of the World Health Organization (WHO) pending an investigation of its handling of the coronavirus pandemic and its relationship with China.

I remember when Italy placed 16 million people in quarantine, more than a quarter of its population, in a bid to stop the spread of COVID-19. A day later, the quarantine is expanded to cover the entire country, becoming the first country to apply this measure nationwide.

More recently the emergence of the 2nd strain of COVID in the UK and the subsequent response to create a tier 4 category to help slow the spread has affected millions. Or has it? Well, if adherence to tier 4 didn't affect millions, and my Instagram would suggest that most people didn't follow the advice not to mix households, then I think we will see the effects through the infection rates rise exponentially in January.

The game-changer has to be the vaccine. We can get into that another time.

So, to my point, and before this storm blows over and I start laughing about Trump again (ah, I do miss him) here is why I am optimistic about 2021. In fact, I am excited as well as optimistic about next year.

Morgan Stanley projects strong global GDP growth of 6.4% for 2021—led first by emerging markets, followed by reopening economies in the U.S. and Europe—in a macro outlook that diverges from the consensus. Rising COVID-19 case numbers in the U.S. and Europe make it difficult right now to envision a return to normal.1 Dec 2020


2021 Global Economic Outlook | Morgan Stanley

1 - I believe that 2021 will see the biggest economic surge we have ever seen

We have seen and read so much about how bad 2020 has been. Yep, we all get it, really, we do. I don't think it's possible to underestimate how much the pandemic has affected the lives of people in the hospitality sector for example. And it brings tears to my eyes and pains me to think about what Christmas has been like for people who have no-income but have small mouths to feed. Bad enough anytime, but at Christmas it makes even the coldest among us think about what we have.

I'm not getting stuck looking in the rear-view mirror at 2020. The view forwards says this to me: The vaccine will start getting deployed in ever-increasing numbers. I think we will see drive-through vaccination centres. This will start to flatten the curve on a scale across sufficient geographies to start to change the sentiment among consumers and business. Then we will see the confidence return. Once that happens it'll be like a money party. People will feel like they have made it, as we have won against the common enemy that has made our lives so damp and miserable for the last year. When collective confidence becomes the next new norm, people will open businesses, they will do things they have always wanted to do.

I'm not surprised to see that in Q3 2020 China (yes Donald, Chy-NA), are already demonstrating a GDP growth surge after the measures they implemented to recover from COVID.

2 - I think that people will find a new level of happiness post COVID

The total world population hit 7.8 billion in 2020 and I think that the people who have been affected most by COVID are those among us who were taking so much for granted. Our freedom for a start. I know myself, as someone who loves to travel, how much I have missed the simplicity and liberty of being able to book a flight and then just go. I know aviation has been massively affected by COVID, but I honestly think it'll boom again in H2 2021 and onwards.

Similarly, how we work was just how it was. We used to look at Millenials working on MacBooks from coffee shops and wonder when they were going to grow up. Well, now the vast majority of us have experienced what it's like to have more flexibility. Our employers have embraced the focus that can come from adopting a more output based style of management instead of just being a compliance-based style of management. That means more of us can be whom we want to be as employees and bring more to the table in the value we each offer.

Earlier in the year, I made this video about an emerging phenomenon called Zoom Towns. In the US and countries where large parts of the economy depend on people doing work where they can be mobile, massive amounts of people were seen to be migrating away from cities. Again, this is part of the bid to find happiness as well as protect and shield from the virus. But the point is that building regulations are now being reviewed for residential construction projects to ensure that sufficient infrastructure is included to accommodate more people working from home.

Now I think that's a great thing, for so many reasons. People being able to exercise more, kids getting more time with their parents, parents getting more time with their kids, being able to appreciate your home and the community around you more. I mean, what's not to love about any of that.

We all strive for happiness. According to Aristotle, it is the ONLY thing we want for its own sake. Everything else we do is in order to be happy - in one way or another. But happiness is not a simple concept. Aristotle distinguished between four different levels of happiness.

Happiness level 1: Laetus. Happiness from material objects 

Happiness level 2: Felix. Ego gratification. Happiness from comparison: being better, more admired than others etc. 

Happiness level 3: Beatitudo. The happiness from doing good for others and making the world a better place. 

Happiness level 4: Sublime Beatitudo. Ultimate, perfect happiness 

Now surely the world we are heading towards after COVID has to be more focussed on level 3, and surely the world we have come from (and are probably still in) is more level 2?

3 - Growing as a person, and helping others to grow around me

I feel like I have learnt a lot from 2020. I have a reasonably large digital footprint and it's not unusual for people to say like they feel like they know me when we meet for the first time. I make a lot of content for Linkedin, Instagram and Facebook. But we all know that's not real life, at best it's a snapshot of real-life and even then it's heavily edited and biased. I have had some huge challenges this year, for sure, 2020 has pushed me beyond the level of stress I have ever had before. Being totally candid 2020 has made me feel that way more than a couple of times. I have questioned how strong I think I really am.

After gathering myself and rebuilding my energy levels, I feel stronger. Exiting the year I feel ready and I feel more able. I feel more confident to recognise how I can offer something more valuable to others because I understand myself more. To this point, I can't wait to create an environment at RedHolt where people can grow more than they have ever done and create better futures for themselves. I look forward to the opportunities to be a better Dad and I can't wait to meet my fourth child in June.

So here I am. 06:01 and done. I can't wait for 2021, and those are the reasons why.

I'd better go and pick the reindeers up.

Chris