??? Whoever wins tomorrow has big economic decisions to make

?? Welcome to Trendlines and don't forget to vote. This is Rob Gavin , filling in one last time for Larry Edelman. The secret words for today are “down the road.”

Today, I ask if we can still muster the political will to solve big problems. Plus: Does anyone have any idea what’s going to happen in the election?

Trendlines is Larry Edelman's twice-weekly business newsletter for Boston Globe Media . Click the subscribe button to keep on top of business and the economy in the region and beyond.

?? The day after

Regardless of who wins Tuesday’s election, the next president and Congress face a host of issues that could determine the health of the economy. Congress will again need to raise the debt ceiling. Next up are the Trump tax cuts set to expire at the end of 2025.

Then come long-term challenges: Exploding deficits and debt. The solvency of Social Security and Medicare. Climate change. Immigration. Economic inequality. Artificial intelligence.?

But given the level of partisanship and polarization, do we still have the capacity to tackle such big, difficult issues?

?? Into the wayback

We once did. In the 1980s, the nation faced exploding deficits and a Social Security Trust Fund nearing insolvency.

A Democratic-controlled Congress passed a bipartisan rescue plan, which included raising retirement ages. A Republican president, Ronald Reagan, signed the legislation, which also raised payroll taxes.

In 1990, George H.W. Bush made a deficit-reduction deal with Democrats even as it broke his “no new taxes” pledge — and probably cost him his presidency. Bill Clinton gave up his middle-class tax cut as he muscled a package of higher taxes through Congress in 1993 to further reduce deficits.

? It can happen here?

I reached out to several economists to ask what they considered the biggest economic challenge and followed up with the question, “Can we handle it?” Surprisingly, their answer was, “Yes.”

Robert Pollin, professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst , put one of the most polarizing issues, climate change, at the top of his hit parade. His research shows that federal spending to build clean energy economies would create far more jobs than would be lost by phasing out fossil fuels.

“People will be better off,” he said. “They’re not going to oppose a $300 million battery plant in West Virginia.”

?? The hard stuff

But tackling the toughest issues, such as the nation’s mounting debt, would probably require surging interest rates or some other crisis.?

Mark Zandi, chief economist at 穆迪分析 Analytics, said Congress often needs a “forcing mechanism” to act. In the '80s, the Social Security Trust Fund was nearly empty before political leaders saved it.

??? Last word

Ideally, lawmakers and policy makers would solve problems before they became crises, but politics doesn’t work that way.

Still, we need leaders who can grow in office, rise to the occasion, and sacrifice agendas when they become untenable — even at steep political costs. We’ll see if we get those leaders.

?? Trending

Society: Though many consider the pandemic to be in the rearview mirror, we're still paying the price for it in our social lives.

Retail: The family that started the Roche Bros. supermarket chain over 70 years ago is selling a controlling interest to its longtime supplier in Connecticut.

Housing: Newly arrived migrants are struggling to find homes amid the state’s housing shortage.

?? By the numbers

77 million

?– The number of voters who already cast ballots in the election.

The Closer

Polls are not enough. Even now, the day before the election, they still can’t come close to telling us what we want to know – who’s going to win???

This frustrating stasis has Americans looking other places for the answer, including these corners of finance and economics:?

?? Stock markets

Donald Trump’s media company operates the platform Truth Social and trades on Nasdaq under the symbol DJT. The stock is considered a proxy for how investors view Trump’s chances in the election — since there’s little financial rationale to buy shares in a money-losing company with shrinking revenues.?

The stock began a steady rise in late September, then soared as polls suggested the race was shifting toward the Republican. Shares in Trump Media gained nearly 50 percent in the three trading days between Oct. 24 and Oct. 29. But not for long. The stock dove 22 percent Wednesday, 12 percent Thursday, and 14 percent Friday.

The volatility underscored that the company’s main assets are Trump and his political prospects. If Trump loses, Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management, told Fortune magazine, his media company’s stock price “eventually goes to zero.”

?? Betting markets

Betting or prediction markets determine odds based on how much investors – ok, bettors – are willing to pay to back the candidates. For example, if buyers pay 60 cents for a contract that pays $1 if Trump wins, they believe his chances of winning are 60 percent. (They get zip if Trump loses.)

The odds have favored Trump in recent weeks, but Vice President Kamala Harris has closed the gap – particularly after a poll released Sunday found her leading in Iowa. In the betting market Kalshi, the odds for Trump tumbled from 63 percent Tuesday to 51 percent Sunday, but rebounded to 55 percent Monday morning.

Betting markets, however, are thinly traded and easily moved by a few big bets.?

?? Economic models

Ray Fair, a 耶鲁大学 economics professor, developed a model that forecasts Democrats' share of the popular vote based on a short list of political and economic factors, including incumbency, economic growth, and inflation.?

The model, created in 1978, usually forecasts the results within a few percentage points. Its most recent – and last – run forecast Harris’s share of the vote at 49.5 percent.

Brian Bethune, a Boston College economics professor, noted that if you consider that 1 or 2 percent that goes to third-party candidates, the Fair model has the race basically tied. Which is where we started.

“I know Larry Edelman . Larry Edelman is a friend of mine. You’re no Larry Edelman.” The Big E is back Thursday, better than new. Thanks for reading.