Who wins in the Speaker battle?

Like you, every political operative in the country is probably scratching their head today. We're all on the same unstable ground when it comes to what's going on in DC. While those who work in and around politics may have more information, there's no reason to think we know more.

We don't. We're speculating. Just like everyone else.

With Congressman Jim Jordan from my home state of Ohio coming up short in the first round of votes on Tuesday, all the pundits are scrambling to figure out the pathway forward for Jordan, the House GOP, and the broader political dynamics of our federal legislature.

But no one has all the answers. We only have information - and not a great deal of it.

That's why I don't find it helpful to dwell on the specifics of the race for Speaker of the House. I avoid commenting on it as much as possible. I don't wile away the hours trying to build an educated guess about what will happen; frustratingly so to some of my colleagues who - like anyone else paying attention - want to know who will win. And yesterday, I let them down in the group chat.

Colleague: "Luke - who do you predict to win?"

Me: "Lobbyists. I predict lobbyists will win."

That's not me being scornful or satirical. I'm not trying to joke my way out of the conversation. That's my honest opinion about political "chaos." When the system is in flux, the people who win are those who are willing to wade into the uncertainty and continue beating their drums (even if they have to play a different rhythm).

And most people simply don't do that.

Those of us in the government affairs profession, though, don't have much of a choice. For us, in moments like this, shit isn't hitting the fan. It's business as usual because the situation is ALWAYS changing. The players change. The rules change. Only the game keeps going. Recognizing that, and embracing the need to face a momentary reality head on is what allows lobbyists and empowered grassroots advocates to keep showing up. And that's really our superpower.

Your cause deserves a voice despite the political climate - and that means any political climate. Your right to representation doesn't disappear when a Speaker is vacated. It doesn't diminish when partisan and factional bickering seem to grind the process to a halt.

In the Marine Corps, we train leaders to view conflict in the imagery of surfaces and gaps. The opposing force's strong points are hard surfaces. Their weaknesses are gaps. Balancing your ability to fix their strengths in place while maneuvering to exploit their gaps is the mark of a skilled tactician. In a political climate like the one we're facing today - October 18th, 2023 - effective advocates are going to search out the gaps in the system.

And they'll get some attention that matters.

By the sound of the coverage on the fight for the Speaker's gavel, you'd be justified to assume that everything in Congress has been frozen in place. Nothing can advance. Debates can't be held and consensus can't be built. That's simply not true.

This week, I've worked with three separate members of congress to equip them with information about a bill that would address a major issue in my portfolio. We worked through the politics, the policy, and the process. And because of that work, they're seeing the importance of the issue regardless of what's happening around them. And they're all engaging.

Will success in this climate look different? Yes. Will any speaker moving forward have a difficult task to rally consensus on major legislation? Absolutely. Does any of that change our responsibility to show up? Not in the least. Again and again, you have agency and authority to jump in.

But if you don't want lobbyists to be the only ones to "win" in this environment, you have to own that authority. If you don't want your opposition gaining an edge, you have to be willing to do what's uncomfortable. Right-size your asks in a way that makes sense within the politics of what we know right now. And, as always, find a way to put the real people in this process ahead of the politics that's consuming everyone else.

That's how you - lobbyist or not - will stand a chance to win through this.