Who predicted the Netflix free fall? We did, nearly a month ago.
Netflix faces subscriber stagnation, loses $50 Billion in value, and Bill Ackman loses $400 Million on his Netflix shares.?Netflix and anyone invested in their shares has had a bad week.?Huge market movements like this seem unfair – something that is unforeseeable has now affected your portfolio, your retirement, your wealth.?But was this truly unforeseeable? Let’s dig into that for a minute.
Before succumbing to the “this was unknowable” spiral, lets self-evaluate; did you read everything you possibly could about Netflix??No offense, but we highly doubt that you did; there were 8,599 news articles published about Netflix since January 1, 2022.?Unless you had a spare 51,594 minutes (860 hours) to read them all, you missed some information about Netflix that may have been critical. Don’t feel badly for missing that information; for a human, this is impossible. Luckily, we don’t rely on humans.
So we actually did read these articles.?But that wasn’t enough, so we read some more to get a historical context; 115,663 to be precise (That’s 1.32 years of human reading time for you to catch up on, btw).?And what did we learn??Well, it turns out that the way our society and its experts talk about Netflix has subtly shifted over the past six months.?You see, we not only read all these articles, but we used proprietary technology called Directional NLP that gives us some interesting insight about the video streaming service. Take a look at the chart below.
On December 20, SynerAI’s Machine Learning algorithms picked up on an increasingly negative trend related to Netflix.?One month later, their stock tanked by -22% in a single day.?Then, on March 24, we noticed the same phenomenon happening again.?One month later, their stock fell by -15% in one day.
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How did we do that?
SynerAI turns all that information from reading stuff into a proprietary set of six metrics we call Health Scores. One of these health scores reflects the earnings potential of any given company, which we call Earnings Power.?The Earnings Power health score was a leading indicator that on January 19 and the later on April 19, the days Netflix released their Quarterly statements, were going to be unpleasant experiences for the market. ?
So here’s our question to you: how valuable is an accurate 4 week earnings prediction in the equity markets? Come find out at SynerAI.com
Our breakthrough technology understands the world’s news like no one else.
Well done! Can't wait to see more
John Tyler Professor of Business Administration at Darden Graduate Business School, University of Virginia
2 年Very nice work on Netflix forecasts! I'd like to see more of this quality Directional NLP work. ??
Impressive!
Video products @ Microsoft with a touch of GenAI
2 年Great article!